COVID News Brief: The news you need to know

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AVAC's weekly COVID News Brief provides a curated perspective on what COVID news is worth your time.
"Infectious disease researchers in South Africa were the first to identify the omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus. Now scientists there are racing to detect new pathogens before they can spark another pandemic. They're drawing on decades of experience dealing with the AIDS epidemic.”
-- Nurith Aizenman in NPR ([link removed])


** Share of People Who Completed the Initial COVID-19 Vaccination Protocol
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February 9, 2022
Source: Our World in Data ([link removed])


** Table of Contents
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* If You Are in a Hurry (#If You Are in a Hurry)
* Cholera Outbreaks and Vaccine Shortage (#Cholera Outbreaks and Vaccine Shortage)
* Looking for the Next Pandemic (#Looking for the Next Pandemic)
* COVID-19 Vaccines and Older People (#COVID-19 Vaccines and Older People)
* Long COVID (#Long COVID)
* This Week in Misinformation (#This Week in Misinformation)
* Combatting Misinformation (#Combatting Misinformation)
* Monitoring H5N1 Avian Flu (#Monitoring H5N1 Avian Flu)


* Outbreaks and Education (#Outbreaks and Education)
* Preprint Raises Concerns About Molnupiravir COVID-19 Treatment (#Preprint Raises Concerns About Molnupiravir COVID-19 Treatment)
* New Organization Warns About “Risky” Research (#New Organization Warns About “Risky” Research)
* Animal Reservoirs of SARS-CoV-2 Variants (#Animal Reservoirs of SARS-CoV-2 Variants)
* Fungal Infections and Climate Change (#Fungal Infections and Climate Change)

While COVID-19 is not over, the global emergency does seem to be winding down and countries and the WHO are ending or talking of plans to end emergency declarations. As we shift to think about endemic COVID-19, we also must look ahead to what the next pandemic might be and how we can prepare. Last week the WHO published the “zero draft ([link removed]) ” of a new pandemic treaty that Nature ([link removed]) (UK) reports is “intended to ensure vaccines, drugs and diagnostics are shared more equitably around the world during the next pandemic, avoiding the deep divides seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.” The opening line of the draft begins: “In recognition of the catastrophic failure of the international community in showing solidarity and equity in response to the coronavirus disease….”

A Nature ([link removed]) editorial warns the systems being set up to enforce the treaty may be unworkable. “The world has little more than a year to convert the draft into finished text. The commitments in the current version will probably be watered down before an agreement is reached. But as researchers prepare to publish their studies, and campaigners rush to accelerate campaigning, it is easy to forget the need to determine the kinds of institution and structure that are essential to ensuring an agreement is delivered on. Institutional structures are as important as the content of treaties. The WHO and national negotiators need to ask themselves what value an agreement has if it includes everything in the WHO’s zero draft, but proves unworkable in practice.”



** If You Are in a Hurry
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* Read CIDRAP ([link removed]) on a new study that shows low uptake of vaccine among older people and increased deaths, especially in low and middle income countries.
* Read Science ([link removed]) on concerns raised about the COVID-19 treatment molnupiravir raised in a preprint study.
* Read CIDRAP ([link removed]) on a study that found previous variants of SARS-CoV-2 in North American deer.
* Read Newsweek ([link removed]) and CNN ([link removed]) on the growing threat from fungal infections.
* Read NPR ([link removed]) and Scientific American ([link removed]) on efforts to find the next pandemic virus.
* Read New York Times ([link removed]) columnist on Zeynep Tufekci on the need to prepare now for a potential H5N1 flu pandemic.




** Cholera Outbreaks and Vaccine Shortage
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In a twitter thread ([link removed]) @WHO quotes director Tedros: "Around the world, we estimate that more people died from #cholera last year than in the previous 5 years put together. Currently, 23 countries are experiencing #cholera outbreaks, a further 20 countries that share land borders with affected countries are at risk.… In total, more than 1 billion people around the world are directly at risk of #cholera. Cholera spreads through contaminated water, so clean water is needed urgently wherever there is an acute outbreak, to prevent transmission…."There are effective vaccines for cholera, but with supply very limited, the Intl Coordinating Group that manages the global cholera vaccine stockpile last year suspended the standard two-dose regimen, recommending instead a single-dose approach to extend supply."

AP ([link removed]) (US) reports, “Africa’s public health agency says countries with deadly cholera outbreaks on the continent have no ‘immediate access’ to vaccines amid a global supply shortage.”



** Looking for the Next Pandemic
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NPR ([link removed]) (US) reports on a project in a South African lab looking for clues to what might be the next pandemic virus. “Infectious disease researchers in South Africa were the first to identify the omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus. Now scientists there are racing to detect new pathogens before they can spark another pandemic. They're drawing on decades of experience dealing with the AIDS epidemic.” Researcher Tulio de Oliveira’s lab is one of several in low- and middle-income countries doing cutting edge research to help identify new outbreaks and potential pandemic viruses. As de Oliveira notes, “We have more experience for dealing with epidemics in the Global South. It's one of our only scientific advantages.” NPR reports, “It's why Brazil has some of the foremost experts on mosquito-borne outbreaks, like Zika and chikungunya, why Uganda is so
good on viral hemorrhagic fevers like Ebola. In South Africa, the scourge has been HIV. To deal with it, de Oliveira helped pioneer the use of genomic surveillance.”

Scientific American ([link removed]) (US) reports, “Bats worldwide are primary vectors for virus transmission from animals to humans. Those viruses often are harmless to bats but can be deadly to humans. Horseshoe bats in China, for example, are cited as a likely cause of the covid-19 outbreak. And researchers believe pressure put on bats by climate change and encroachment from human development have increased the frequency of viruses jumping from bats to people, causing what are known as zoonotic diseases.” Researchers in the seven countries are working with fruit bats in the hope they will “find ways to predict where the next deadly virus might make the leap from bats to people.”



** COVID-19 Vaccines and Older People
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CIDRAP ([link removed]) (US) reports on a WHO/CDC study published in the US CDC’s MMWR ([link removed]) : “In 2022, the median global COVID-19 vaccination rate among people aged 60 and older—who make up over 80 percent of deaths from the virus—was 76 percent, substantially lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) goal of 100 percent, according to a study today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) had particularly low uptake…. In 73 percent of low-income countries and 31 percent of lower–middle-income countries (mostly in the WHO's African, Eastern Mediterranean, and European regions), estimated excess mortality was more than 10 times higher than the total deaths reported through surveillance, while most high-income countries saw a doubling of excess deaths.”

BBC ([link removed]) (UK) reports, “Low immunity against COVID-19 and a growing population of frail elderly is driving a surge in coronavirus deaths in Japan which had, for a long time, upheld some of the strictest pandemic restrictions. Japan once boasted one of the lowest COVID-19 mortality rates, but the figure has been trending upwards since the end of 2022…. Most of the latest COVID-19 fatalities are elderly people with underlying medical conditions, experts said. This contrasts with the initial spate of deaths that were due to pneumonia and were often treated in intensive care.”



** Long COVID
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ABC News ([link removed]) (US) reports, “Throughout the pandemic, Black Americans have made up a disproportionate share of cases, hospitalizations and deaths compared to any other racial or ethnic group. Now, doctors and advocates are warning the Black community is facing another barrier: access to long COVID care…. According to data from the US Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey ([link removed]) , with the latest update conducted between Jan. 4 and Jan. 16, 28.7 percent of Black respondents said they currently have or have had long COVID…. Data shows 34.6 percent of Black Americans with long COVID report severe limitations on their ability to perform day-to-day activities. Hispanics had the second highest rates of severe physical limitations at 32 percent and those who reported being multiple races or another race were 30.5 percent.”



** This Week in Misinformation
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AP ([link removed]) (US) reports on “a growing list of hundreds of children, teens, athletes and celebrities whose unexpected deaths and injuries have been incorrectly blamed on COVID-19 shots. Using the hashtag #diedsuddenly, online conspiracy theorists have flooded social media with news reports, obituaries and GoFundMe pages in recent months, leaving grieving families to wrestle with the lies…. An AP review of more than 100 tweets from the account in December and January found that claims about the cases being vaccine related were largely unsubstantiated and, in some cases, contradicted by public information. Some of the people featured died of genetic disorders, drug overdoses, flu complications or suicide. One died in a surfing accident.”



** Combatting Misinformation
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Maravi Post ([link removed]) (Malawi) reports from a Media Science Café ([link removed]) on Cholera and COVID-19, even “as the country continues to grapple with the cholera outbreak, it is very vital that we should constantly remind each other that COVID-19 is still with us…. It is disappointing to note that some people are still resisting getting the vaccine for COVID-19. There are a lot of misconceptions surrounding the COVID-19 vaccine…. Medical expert Monalisa Tembo observes that some citizens questioned the short period of time in which COVID-19 vaccines were developed and got ready for administration on human beings. She says people should not forget that the world is technologically advancing. ‘The speed in COVID-19 vaccine development is a result of advances in genetic makeup deciphering due to modern technology, past research, the spread of the disease and public attention to science. People
should therefore not panic at all when they think about the COVID-19 vaccine,’ emphasises Tembo.”



** Monitoring H5N1 Avian Flu
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Vox ([link removed]) (US) looks at the prospects of avian flu jumping to humans. “Is bird flu creeping closer to humans? The short answer: no. In its current form, H5N1 doesn’t have the machinery to easily infect humans or spread quickly among us. That’s the good news. What is concerning is that avian influenza viruses are known to change quickly — especially when they’re abundant and spreading among certain animal populations. Hence why some scientists are worried now…. For any pathogen to have the potential to cause a human pandemic, it has to have three important qualities, according to several flu experts. It must spread easily among humans, particularly through the air. It must cause human disease. And it must be something that most of our immune systems haven’t encountered before — that is, it must be novel. Thankfully, H5N1 doesn’t meet all of these criteria.”

STAT ([link removed]) (US) reports, “STAT asked a number of experts, all of whom have been studying or following H5N1 for years, how they assess the current situation and how they’d describe their individual level of concern. None of them ever stopped worrying about H5N1. None of them like what they’re seeing now. But most of them struggled to answer when asked if they are more worried now than earlier. Like in 2004, when a cluster of cases in a Vietnamese family raised the specter of limited person-to-person spread. Or 2005, when what was by then a poultry virus moved back into wild birds, which spread it to North Africa, Turkey and Europe. Or in the mid-to-late teens, when Egypt recorded more than 250 human cases in unsettling succession, 93 of them fatal. Since the 1997 outbreak, about 870 confirmed human cases have been detected. Just over half of those people died from
the infection.”

In an opinion column in the New York Times ([link removed]) (US) Zeynep Tufekci writes, “The world needs to act now, before H5N1 has any chance of becoming a devastating pandemic. We have many of the tools that are needed, including vaccines. What’s missing is a sense of urgency and immediate action…. We could get lucky — we’ve had bird flu outbreaks before without human spread. But it seems foolish to count on that. A pandemic strain may have a much lower fatality rate than the 56 percent of known human cases so far, but it still could be much more deadly than the coronavirus, which is estimated to have killed 1 percent to 2 percent of those infected before vaccines or treatments were available. Deadly influenza pandemics occur regularly in human history, and they don’t wait until people recover from an earlier outbreak, no matter how weary we may all feel. This time, we have not just the warning, but also many of the tools we need
to fend a pandemic off. We should not wait until it’s too late.”



** Outbreaks and Education
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One of the enduring and severe impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and response has been on children’s education. In many countries schools were closed for months or even years and even where online learning was possible, there were major impacts for children. In Malawi the cholera outbreak delayed opening of schools and in Uganda the Ebola outbreak caused schools to close early. The Citizen ([link removed]) (Tanzania) reports on discussion about building “strong education systems that will overcome unprecedented disasters such as COVID-19 and Ebola” in East Africa. Aga Khan University’s Institute for Educational Development, East Africa has developed plans to help schools respond during crises. The head of research at the Aga Khan University, Prof Fredrick Mtenzi is quoted: “We are meeting as education stakeholders to look at how we will start building education systems that can withstand such
disasters because they can repeat themselves or occur in a different manner.”



** Preprint Raises Concerns About Molnupiravir COVID-19 Treatment
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Science ([link removed]) (US) reports, “A widely used COVID-19 drug may be driving the appearance of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, sparking concerns it could prolong and even reinvigorate the pandemic. The drug, molnupiravir, produced by Merck & Co., is designed to kill the virus by inducing mutations in the viral genome. A survey of viral genomes reported in a new preprint, however, suggests some people treated with the drug generate novel viruses that not only remain viable, but spread.” But experts are divided on what this means: “’It’s very clear that viable mutant viruses can survive [molnupiravir treatment] and compete [with existing variants],’ says virologist William Haseltine, chair of ACCESS Health International, who has repeatedly raised concerns about the drug. ‘I think we are courting disaster.’ But a Merck spokesperson disputes that the drug has led to the emergence of widely circulating variants, and
some researchers downplayed the significance of molnupiravir-caused mutations. ‘Right now, it’s much ado about nothing,’ says Raymond Schinazi, a medicinal chemist at the Emory University School of Medicine, noting that with SARS-CoV-2 infecting millions of people worldwide, the virus is naturally mutating at a fast clip.”



** New Organization Warns About “Risky” Research
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Science ([link removed]) (US) reports, “Frustrated that their tweets, published commentaries, and comments to the press aren’t having enough impact, a group of scientists and others concerned about potentially risky research on human pathogens is launching a nonprofit organization today to advocate for tighter biosafety rules. The group, called Protect Our Future, wants to prevent ‘lab-generated pandemics that could threaten the survival of the human species,’ a press release declares…. But Stanford University microbiologist David Relman, who was part of the Cambridge Working Group, objects to the new organization’s “heavy top-down approach” and the lack of involvement from scientists who do research on dangerous human pathogens. He says guidelines crafted with input from scientists are more likely to change behavior without impeding research than rigid, punitive laws.”



** Animal Reservoirs of SARS-CoV-2 Variants
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CIDRAP ([link removed]) (US) reports, “Scientists analyzing samples collected from white-tailed deer in New York state have identified the Alpha, Gamma, and Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants well after they caused widespread COVID-19 in people, representing a reservoir for the strains and a potential future risk to humans.” Read the study here ([link removed]) .



** Fungal Infections and Climate Change
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Newsweek ([link removed]) (US) reports on growing concerns about climate change-driven fungal infection outbreaks, noting many “fungal infections are being found increasingly far outside of their usual ranges, and climate change might be to blame…. The future of fungal infections like valley fever spreading more widely is highly concerning, as we are far less adept at treating and vaccinating against fungi than we are against bacteria or viruses.” CNN ([link removed]) (US) reports, “Last year, the World Health Organization said that it considers fungal pathogens a ‘major threat’ to public health and, for the first time, released its ([link removed]) prioritized list of the 19 kinds the world should watch out for.”
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