John,
A new analysis by The Sentencing Project reveals that after 50 years since the onset of mass incarceration, and despite recent downsizing of most state prison populations, the pace of decarceration is insufficient to undo the decades of unrelenting growth. At the current pace of decarceration, averaging 2.3% annually since 2009, it would take 75 years—until 2098—to return to 1972’s pre-mass incarceration prison population.
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Findings from the report include: - By year end 2021, the U.S. prison population had declined 25% since reaching its peak in 2009. Still, the 1.2 million people imprisoned in 2021 were nearly six times the prison population 50 years ago, before the prison population began its dramatic growth.
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Overall, the number of people imprisoned for a violent offense has declined by only 10% between peak year 2009 and 2020, despite violent crimes falling by 50% between peak year 1991 and 2020.
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Several states have seen significant declines in crime, sometimes outpacing nationwide crime trends. For example, between 1999 and 2020, when New York more than halved its prison population, the state’s violent crime rate fell by 38% while the U.S. violent crime rate fell by 24%.
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The pace of decarceration has been far too slow in many states, and several jurisdictions have turned in the wrong direction. Dangerous overcrowding persists in many jurisdictions and some policymakers plan to further expand incarceration levels.
It is unacceptable to continue to inflict harm on generations of Black and Brown communities by waiting more than seven decades to substantively alter a system that violates human rights, is out of step with the world, and diverts resources from effective public safety investments. In jurisdictions with an uptick in violent crime, policymakers must respond with evidence-based policies, while correcting the counterproductive, costly, and cruel responses of the past. Ending mass incarceration will require moderating prison terms for violence as well as minimizing imprisonment and prison terms for non-violent crimes.
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