From the outset of the conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin has calculated that Western support for Ukraine would eventually wane. And, with the Russians reported to be preparing a new spring offensive, any sign of hesitancy by Washington in terms of supporting Ukraine will encourage Putin in the belief that he will meet no meaningful resistance from the Western alliance....

The Ukrainian military says it is in desperate need of the heavy armour if it is to withstand a new offensive.

The Pentagon, which has been lukewarm about supplying the tanks from the outset, says the delays are due to the fact that it will need to purchase new Abrams tanks to supply Ukraine because the Defense Department doesn't have any available spares, which seems remarkable given that the US Army and US Marine Corps currently operate nearly 5,000 Abrams.

The [F-16 fighter jets], just like the tanks, are deemed essential if the Ukrainian military is to stand any chance of withstanding a new Russian offensive. The supply of Western fighters such as the F-16 would significantly enhance Ukraine's war-fighting capability, and would send a strong message to Putin that the West remains committed to ensuring Ukraine ultimately declares victory over Russia.

As with so many other issues relating to Ukraine, the Biden administration finds itself unable to reach any firm decision about whether or not to accede to Kyiv's request....

As with the tanks request, it has been left to European politicians to increase the pressure on the Biden administration to respond positively to the Ukraine request for fighter jets, with former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson making a direct appeal for Washington to supply warplanes during his recent visit to the US.

"The faster Putin gets out of Ukraine and the quicker we return to stability and the more powerful the message we send to people like China that the West – America, the U.K. – will not tolerate aggressive attempts to change borders by force," Johnson said.

Certainly, the Biden administration's constant dithering over its military support for Ukraine is not only demoralising for the brave Ukrainian forces fighting to protect their country from Russian tyranny. It also encourages Putin in the belief that, despite the significant losses he has suffered during the past year, he can ultimately achieve victory.

What does an autocrat do when his support base is shaken by popular protests?

The standard answer is: he tries to reassure supporters by increasing their privileges, thus giving them a bigger stake in the preservation of the status quo.

Transfer of public assets to chosen supporters has a routine pattern.

The supporter, usually a senior IRGC officer or a senior mullah, secures a low-interest loan from a state-owned bank to buy a state-owned asset at rock-bottom price. Almost always this is just a formality. Once the asset is acquired, the new owner forms a company and sells parts of its shares to others, making a huge profit. Those who acquire prime real estate make especially big killings.

One problem remains: will retired or cashiered generals feel confident enough about the regime's future to embark on the recycling scheme offered?