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An MQ-9 Reaper is parked on a taxiway during sunset at Creech Air Force Base in Nevada, on November 17, 2020. (US Air Force photo by Haley Stevens)

This week the Biden administration announced that the United States will send Abrams battle tanks, and Germany will send Leopard 2 battle tanks and allow others to do the same. But this will not be enough to drive Russian troops back across the border. Instead, Hudson Senior Fellows Bryan Clark [[link removed]] and Dan Patt [[link removed]] explain in The Hill [[link removed]] that Kyiv needs weapons that exploit the transformation of Ukraine’s military into a force that gathers, distributes, and acts on information faster and more lethally than its enemy.

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Key Insights

1. Ukraine has a decision-making advantage.

Combining commercial satellite imagery with drone reconnaissance and Western intelligence, Ukrainian commanders maintain a comprehensive picture of the battlefield. Connected by Starlink to artillery batteries, missile launchers, and attack drones, they use software to review their attack options. When the timing is right, soldiers take out the most important Russian targets, from generals in command posts to ammo dumps brimming with ordnance.

2. Ukraine’s success is not from superior Western weapons.

The US and its NATO allies have held back their most capable systems, such as long-range ATACMS missiles, fighter aircraft, and long-endurance drones. All the weapons and drones supplied to Ukraine thus far are, at least in theory, comparable to Russian arms. The difference is how Ukraine uses its steady supply of Western equipment. With software tools Ukrainian soldiers build themselves, even old artillery technology can be more lethal and effective. And by empowering field commanders, Ukraine’s leaders let them employ their own creativity to an extent even the US military has not done since World War II. The most prominent Ukrainian victories, such as the sinking of Russia’s Black Sea flagship Moskva, resulted more from decision-making successes than high-tech weapons.

3. NATO members can boost Ukraine’s decision-making advantage and learn from it.

Fighting in Ukraine continues to retain elements of twentieth-century combat, from artillery duels to trench warfare. But these features likely would fall away if the US and its allies equipped Ukraine to fully embrace the transformation underway. Patriot batteries and Bradleys are a start but need to be complemented with offensive capabilities that expand Ukrainian commanders’ options and continue shrinking Russia’s decision space. Longer-range missiles including ATACMS, drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper, and F-16 fighter aircraft would not just help Ukraine fight like NATO would but could also help Kyiv’s defenders pioneer the next era in military operations. While the creaking Pentagon bureaucracy trundles toward all-domain command and control and a new warfighting concept, Ukrainian troops are putting them into action. The US government should enable Ukraine’s innovation and then learn from it.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

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Abrams Transfer Unlocks Leopards for Ukraine [[link removed]]

Senior Fellow Bryan Clark [[link removed]] appears on NewsNation [[link removed]] to discuss the tactical role of Abrams tanks and what other weapons the US may eventually provide Ukraine.

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Event | Moving beyond Tragedy: Bucha's Mayor and Deputy Mayor Look to the Future [[link removed]]

Hudson Senior Fellow Peter Rough [[link removed]] will host Bucha Mayor Anatolii Fedoruk and Deputy Mayor Mykhailyna Skoryk-Shkarivska for a discussion [[link removed]] about moving beyond the atrocities of Russia’s war crimes, and Bucha’s role in the future of Ukraine in this live event airing next Tuesday, January 31, at 12:30 p.m.

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Advancing Decision-Centric Warfare: Gaining Advantage Through Force Design and Mission Integration [[link removed]]

In the near future, military forces will not be able to succeed with attrition alone. Instead, commanders will need to gain a decision-making advantage against the enemy. In a Hudson report [[link removed]], Senior Fellows Bryan Clark [[link removed]], Dan Patt [[link removed]], and Timothy A. Walton [[link removed]] describe how the US can overcome this challenge.

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