The Curse of Secular Stagnation

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Unleash Prosperity Hotline – Weekend Edition
Issue #700
01/27/2023, 01/28/2023, 01/29/2023
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1) The Curse Of Secular Stagnation
It now appears the economic growth rate for 2022 will come in at around 1.4% after the economy slipped into a mild contraction in the first half of the year.

This would be a bad performance in normal times. It’s a pitiful number given that we have the health/economic crisis of Covid long behind us – though Biden still won’t declare the “emergency” over (see below). If Biden had simply stuck with the Trump policies it’s likely the normal economic rebound from reopening the economy would have given us growth at 3 to 4 percent.

Our friend Jim Piereson, director of the Thomas A. Smith Foundation, has written a fabulous short pamphlet for Encounter called “The Growth Deficit.”

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He points out that the normal real growth rate of the U.S. economy is roughly 3.3% and that if we could get back on that track – almost all of our problems, including the federal debt crisis – would be easily solved.

But instead of 3.3% growth here is the forecast from the Congressional Budget Office:

Real GDP Growth

2023 2.2
2023 1.5
2024 1.6
2025 1.4
2026 1.6
2027 1.8
2028 1.8
2029 1.8

In other words, we are doomed to half the growth rate of the nation’s potential for now until as far as the eye can see. This is the curse of declining expectations.

If we don’t change this projectory, we are going to be running $1 to $2 trillion deficits for as far as the eye can see and China is going to sprint right past us.

Here’s just one little idea to get growth back up: stop paying people not to work.

2) House Will Finally Vote On Ending The COVID Emergency
The Senate has voted three times to end the COVID National Emergency thanks to the leaderhsip of Senator Roger Marshall, the last time with 62 votes. Nancy Pelosi never allowed a House vote.

That will change next week, when the House votes to terminate the national emergency.

The bill cannot be filibustered and is likely to pass both the House and Senate, forcing Biden to issue the first veto of his presidency if he wants to keep the farce of a never-ending COVID emergency going. This is the same president who some six months ago triumphantly declared COVID over.

Don’t forget that he has used the COVID “emergency” as a pretext to cancel student debt repayments of tens of billions of dollars.

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3) The Votes Are In – No Voter Suppression In Georgia
Democrats have claimed for years that ID requirements and laws against ballot harvesting represented a form of “voter suppression” aimed at keeping minorities from the polls.

Last year, President Biden gave an unhinged speech in Georgia in which he said Republicans in that state to segregationists were using “election subversion” to implement “Jim Crow 2.0” using a new election law.

But the race-baiters were wrong. Georgia’s election reform did not reduce turnout, in fact, 2022 saw the highest-ever turnout for a midterm election in Georgia's history.

A new University of Georgia survey of 1,253 Georgia voters finds ZERO percent of black respondents said their voting experience in Georgia was poor in 2022, versus 73 percent who said it was excellent.

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Georgia’s GOP Governor Brian Kemp is a hero for standing up for Georgia’s voting laws and insisting they make it “easier to vote, but harder to cheat.” He now has a 62 percent approval rating in the state.

We still expect to make their hysterical claims of voter suppression when voter ID laws are passed – as they should be in every state.

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4) Biden Judicial Nominee Whiffs On Basic Constitution Questions
This is a rather remarkable and embarrassing exchange between Senator John Kennedy and Biden judicial nominee Charnelle Bjelkengren.

Can a person unfamiliar with Article II really expect to become an Article III judge? If Biden has any shame he'll withdraw this nominee.

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We certainly hope and pray this grossly unqualified nominee is never confirmed by the Senate to sit on the bench.

5) Photo Of The Day
Our woke Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen lectures poor Africans to stop using so much energy so they can save the planet by staying poor. What a humanitarian! Is this what foreigners mean by the “Ugly American”?

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6) They Are After You

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