Keeps signature promise on trade                                                                    
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Jan. 17, 2020

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

NAFTA no more as President Trump wins USMCA passage in Senate, keeps signature campaign promise to put America first on trade
A little more than a year after President Donald Trump promised to withdraw from NAFTA if Congress did not adopt the USMCA — on Dec. 1, 2018, he said, “I’ll be terminating it within a relatively short period of time.  We get rid of NAFTA.  It’s been a disaster for the United States… And so Congress will have a choice of the USMCA or pre-NAFTA, which worked very well…” — on Jan. 16, the Senate has overwhelmingly adopted the USMCA 89 to 10. Senate passage came after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) finally relented and allowed the trade deal to come up on the House floor, followed shortly thereafter by House passage 385 to 41 on Dec. 19, 2019. None of this is surprising. President Trump won in 2016 in the Rust Belt particularly on the political strength of his trade agenda, uniting conservative and union households and savaging Hillary Clinton as a pro-NAFTA pretender. Now, Trump’s success in reshaping American politics around trade has now been confirmed by the massive bipartisan support for the USMCA. Both Democratic Michigan Senators Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters voted for it. That tells you everything you need to know right there. The blue-collar Democrats who supported President Donald Trump in 2016 and put him over the top ended up supporting the Trump trade agenda, making passage of the USMCA a political certainty even as Democrats in Congress were itching to impeach Trump and get the Senate trial underway. This tells you there was greater political risk in going against Trump on his signature issue than anything else.

Cartoon: FISA Fox
Who will protect the FISA court from being abused to spy on political opponents?

Video: Trump secures trade pact with China with Art of the Deal, keeps tariffs in place to enforce it
President Donald Trump has secured a trade deal with China without sacrificing any of his leverage, with 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods and 7.5 percent tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of goods staying in place as an enforcement mechanism.

USMCA passage heralds success of Trump trade agenda
Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning: “President Donald Trump kept his promise and ended the giant sucking sound that was NAFTA. The overwhelming Senate passage of Trump's signature trade deal is an affirmation that a President who is determined to put America's interests first can rewrite the rules for international trade. The immediate impact will be auto manufacturers who desire zero tariffs on their vehicles will have to significantly increase the content of those vehicles in order to qualify. This should mean more U.S. auto manufacturing jobs, as well as a bump to domestic production, good news for American workers as auto manufacturing jobs come with higher wages. 2020 is shaping up to be the year of the trade deals with the phase one China deal in the can and prospective deals with likely deals with the UK, the EU, India and phase two Japan in the offing. While Democrats in Congress have attempted to undermine President Trump at every turn, the passage of USMCA demonstrates that they failed and tariffs properly applied work. While the nation's focus has been China, the truth is more than one-third of U.S. exports go to Canada and Mexico, compared to 7 percent to China, making USMCA even more important than the first phase China deal in the immediate future.”

Andy Puzder and Bill Hagerty: China surrenders to reality in the trade dispute
“The U.S. and China signed a ‘phase one’ trade deal Wednesday—a meaningful victory in an economic conflict that’s been building for decades. The agreement is a credit to President Trump’s China strategy and a mark against his detractors. When Mr. Trump took office, he quickly implemented targeted tariffs to pressure China into ending its abusive trade practices. Critics relentlessly assailed that decision. They contended that his ‘trade war’ would crash the U.S. economy. It turns out China depends more on exports to the U.S. than America does on Chinese imports. Where U.S. companies rerouted supply lines with the speed only free enterprise can attain, the tariffs wrecked the delicate balance of China’s state-managed markets… Mr. Trump recognized that the only way to make U.S.-China trade fair is to force Beijing to the table. By imposing stiff tariffs, the president put an end to appeasement. In the process, American voters have turned against Beijing. Simultaneously, the administration crafted bilateral trade deals with Japan and South Korea along with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. China has seen America’s economic clout and this administration’s willingness to wield it.”


NAFTA no more as President Trump wins USMCA passage in Senate, keeps signature campaign promise to put America first on trade

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By Robert Romano

A little more than a year after President Donald Trump promised to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) if Congress did not adopt the USMCA — on Dec. 1, 2018, he said, “I’ll be terminating it within a relatively short period of time.  We get rid of NAFTA.  It’s been a disaster for the United States… And so Congress will have a choice of the USMCA or pre-NAFTA, which worked very well…” — on Jan. 16, the Senate has overwhelmingly adopted the USMCA 89 to 10.

Senate passage came after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) finally relented and allowed the trade deal to come up on the House floor, followed shortly thereafter by easy House passage 385 to 41 on Dec. 19, 2019.

Pending Canadian ratification of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal, NAFTA is all but a memory.

None of this is surprising. President Trump won the Republican nomination and then ultimately the election in 2016 in the Rust Belt particularly on the political strength of his trade agenda, uniting conservative and union households and savaging Hillary Clinton as pro-NAFTA.

Now, Trump’s success in reshaping American politics around trade has now been confirmed by the massive bipartisan support for the USMCA.

Key bellwethers on the Democratic side came with pro-union Democrats including U.S. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) all supporting passage. Both Democratic Michigan Senators Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters voted for it. Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) stands out as an exception as voting no, but then again, he’s running for President. But so is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and she supported it.

That tells you everything you need to know right there.

The blue-collar Democrat voters who supported President Donald Trump in 2016 and put him over the top ended up supporting the Trump trade agenda, making passage of the USMCA a political certainty even as Democrats in Congress were itching to impeach Trump and get the Senate trial underway. For those Democrats, there was greater political risk in going against Trump on trade than anything else.

To get the trade agreement done, Trump effectively threatened tariffs on Mexico plus withdrawal from NAFTA to bring all parties to the table, hammer out a deal and get it safely across the finish line — all in time for 2020.

And, as President Trump promised, the deal moves the ball in the America first direction.

Country of origin requirements are being increased to 75 percent, up from 62.5 percent, requiring automobiles will have at least three-quarters of their parts made in North America.

Mexico will recognize the right of collective bargaining and all parties agreed that “40-45 percent of auto content be made by workers earning at least $16 per hour,” according to the U.S. Trade Representative. In 2016, average pay in Mexico for manufacturing was $3.91 an hour. In 2017, the Associated Press ran a report entitled “In Mexico, $2 per hour workers make $40,000 SUVs.” This is a tremendous concession, and most certainly an improvement on NAFTA from a U.S. producer perspective.

On agriculture, Canada is allowing in greater access for U.S. dairy products.

On currency, the USMCA “address[es] unfair currency practices by requiring high-standard commitments to refrain from competitive devaluations and targeting exchange rates, while significantly increasing transparency and providing mechanisms for accountability,” according to the U.S. Trade Representative.

Since 2008, the Mexican peso has depreciated against the U.S. dollar by 50 percent, from $0.10 per $1 USD to $0.05 per $1 USD. The new provision will give aggrieved parties an opportunity to target currency devaluation as an unfair trade practices, something that could set a new gold standard for trade agreements. This mirrors provisions in the newly signed executive, phase one trade deal with China, as gaining these provisions in USMCA is what enabled U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to extract them from Beijing as well.

On intellectual property, cross-border copyrights, trademarks and patents will be enforceable to cut back on knock-offs, plus additional protections for pharmaceutical and agricultural producers.

On financial services, U.S. financial services will be allowed to compete with local financial services in Canada and Mexico, getting most-favored nation treatment.

On textiles, the agreement will “[p]romote greater use of Made-in-the-USA fibers, yarns, and fabrics by: [l]imiting rules that allow for some use of non-NAFTA inputs in textile and apparel trade… [and by] [r]equiring that sewing thread, pocketing fabric, narrow elastic bands, and coated fabric, when incorporated in most apparel and other finished products, be made in the region for those finished products to qualify for trade benefits,” according to the U.S. Trade Representative.

Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning welcomed news of USMCA’s passage, declaring, “President Donald Trump kept his promise and ended the giant sucking sound that was NAFTA. The overwhelming Senate passage of Trump's signature trade deal is an affirmation that a President who is determined to put America's interests first can rewrite the rules for international trade.”

And all the so-called experts, the same ones who predicted Trump couldn’t win in 2016, said that such agreements with Mexico, Canada, China, Japan and South Korea were impossible to negotiate because Trump was threatening to use tariffs, that instead we’d have trade wars and recessions or depressions.

Boy, was that wrong. Instead, Trump levied the tariffs, the trade in goods deficit with China was cut by 13 percent in 2019 and everyone came to the table. It’s the year of the trade deal.

Now all the agreements are in the bag, unemployment is at a 50-year low and U.S. labor participation among working age adults is on the rise. The economy is humming, and USMCA will only help it grow even more as it boosts U.S. exports.

Meaning, President Trump was right all along on trade. His art of the deal to use U.S. leverage in the trade negotiations paid off big time and now the victories are mounting with USMCA and the China deal — all in time for 2020. Watch for trade to continue to dominate the landscape this election year as it reshapes American politics yet again and tells us whether 2016 and President Trump was a fluke — or the future.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.


Cartoon: FISA Fox

By A.F. Branco

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Click here for a higher level resolution version.


Video: Trump secures trade pact with China with Art of the Deal, keeps tariffs in place to enforce it

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To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2xj2nrRalQ


algpressreleases.PNG

USMCA passage heralds success of Trump trade agenda

Jan. 16, 2020, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement praising Senate passage of the USMCA:

“President Donald Trump kept his promise and ended the giant sucking sound that was NAFTA. The overwhelming Senate passage of Trump's signature trade deal is an affirmation that a President who is determined to put America's interests first can rewrite the rules for international trade. The immediate impact will be auto manufacturers who desire zero tariffs on their vehicles will have to significantly increase the content of those vehicles in order to qualify. This should mean more U.S. auto manufacturing jobs, as well as a bump to domestic production, good news for American workers as auto manufacturing jobs come with higher wages.

“2020 is shaping up to be the year of the trade deals with the phase one China deal in the can and prospective deals with likely deals with the UK, the EU, India and phase two Japan in the offing.

“While Democrats in Congress have attempted to undermine President Trump at every turn, the passage of USMCA demonstrates that they failed and tariffs properly applied work. While the nation's focus has been China, the truth is more than one-third of U.S. exports go to Canada and Mexico, compared to 7 percent to China, making USMCA even more important than the first phase China deal in the immediate future.”

To view online: https://getliberty.org/2020/01/usmca-passage-heralds-success-of-trump-trade-agenda/


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ALG Editor’s Note: In the following featured oped from the Wall Street Journal, Andy Puzder and Bill Hagerty make the case for the U.S.-China trade deal as a credit to President Donald Trump’s China strategy:

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China surrenders to reality in the trade dispute

By Andy Puzder and Bill Hagerty

The U.S. and China signed a “phase one” trade deal Wednesday—a meaningful victory in an economic conflict that’s been building for decades. The agreement is a credit to President Trump’s China strategy and a mark against his detractors.

When Mr. Trump took office, he quickly implemented targeted tariffs to pressure China into ending its abusive trade practices. Critics relentlessly assailed that decision. They contended that his “trade war” would crash the U.S. economy.

It turns out China depends more on exports to the U.S. than America does on Chinese imports. Where U.S. companies rerouted supply lines with the speed only free enterprise can attain, the tariffs wrecked the delicate balance of China’s state-managed markets. Last year China posted three straight quarters of around 6% annualized growth in gross domestic product. In the third quarter, it hit 6% flat, its weakest result in nearly three decades. The reality is likely worse than the official numbers. Economists have questioned the accuracy of China’s official economic data for years. Based on discussion with Asian business leaders and our personal experience, neither of us would be surprised if China’s real growth is in the 0% to minus-2% range.

The fight with China had to come eventually and Mr. Trump’s deregulation and tax reform helped position the U.S. economy to endure it. For years, Chinese corporations have brazenly stolen U.S. intellectual property and dumped goods on the American market in violation of U.S. law. Meanwhile, Beijing has regularly subsidized strategic industries such as telecommunications and energy, required foreign firms to transfer their technology in exchange for access to the Chinese market, and manipulated its currency to create artificial trade advantages for Chinese companies.

Beijing got away with this behavior because it permitted remarkably low wages and dismal working conditions. By exploiting its people’s poverty, Communist leaders lured foreign money, particularly into manufacturing. Labor costs have since skyrocketed in China, but the U.S. still acquiesced on trade.

For years Beijing was accommodated by U.S. presidents from both parties, all unwilling to take a hard stand. Regrettably, America’s allies also followed the path of appeasement. China has lied, cheated and stolen its way to a massive trade surplus, which it has used to fuel a dramatic increase in military expenditures and strategic infrastructure investment in East Asia and beyond.

Mr. Trump recognized that the only way to make U.S.-China trade fair is to force Beijing to the table. By imposing stiff tariffs, the president put an end to appeasement. In the process, American voters have turned against Beijing. Simultaneously, the administration crafted bilateral trade deals with Japan and South Korea along with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. China has seen America’s economic clout and this administration’s willingness to wield it.

Though the U.S. trade deficit with China rose during Mr. Trump’s first two years in office, it shrank in 2019. This past November, America’s global trade deficit hit its lowest point since 2016, driven by significant improvements in the trade balance with China. In that month alone, the deficit with China shrank by $2.2 billion, split between a $1.4 billion increase in exports and an $800 million reduction in imports. Those numbers will help boost third-quarter gross domestic product.

The South China Morning Post reports that a “manufacturing exodus” is under way as companies relocate their factories from China to other low-cost countries. Among those working to shift manufacturing out are major tech companies—HP, Dell and Microsoft—as well as large retailers such as Nike. Once a business incurs the one-time cost of shifting its supply chain out of China, it is unlikely to return. We were told by CEOs whose companies are some of the largest direct investors in China that they are altering their risk assessment on Beijing. They made clear that further investment in China is off the table.

After talking tough for years, China’s negotiators are now bowing to reality. According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Beijing has agreed to “structural reforms and other changes” in the areas of “intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange,” as part of the phase one deal.

In addition, China has promised to increase its purchases of U.S. exports by at least $200 billion over the next two years, reducing the trade gap even further and boosting prospects for American farmers, who have borne the brunt of the trade war.

Beijing has robbed the U.S. for years while the government stood by helplessly. Mr. Trump’s long-criticized policies have done much to ensure that America never again grovels at the feet of the Chinese Communist Party.

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