January 25, 2023

According to a Wall Street Journal survey of economists, chances of a recession in the next 12 months are now at 61%. At the onset of the 2008 recession, the same survey in December 2007 forecast the probability of a recession at only 38%. Yet in today's economic environment, the White House and many progressive economists are portraying that the worst is behind us, but as the chart shows, inflation has a long way to go and remains a significant threat.

January 25, 2023

Data drive - A clearer picture is emerging about the November elections in Florida... and it reinforces the depth and the scope of Gov. Ron DeSantis' nearly 20-point reelection victory over Democratic nominee Charlie Crist.

By the numbers - Some of the big takeaways from the voter data now available: Turnout overall dropped from 2018 - which was 62.6 percent - to a more average midterm level of 53.8 percent, but Republicans still showed up in substantial numbers.

Historic GOP edge - About 7.7 million Florida voters cast ballots. GOP Voter turnout was 67.3 percent, compared to 52 percent for Democrats and 38.5 percent turnout for independents and those registered with minor parties. This Republican turnout advantage is higher than it was in the tea party wave year of 2010 (when Rick Scott narrowly won his first gubernatorial race) and maybe the highest ever for the GOP.

January 24, 2023

Speaker Kevin McCarthy has named a mixed bag of members to Republicans' sprawling investigative panel, including conservative hardliners, leadership allies, and Rep. Jim Jordan - who represents a combination of both - to lead it.

The California Republican, on Tuesday evening, appointed a dozen GOP lawmakers, including Jordan, to a select subcommittee on the "weaponization" of the federal government. Republicans are expected to use it to probe, among other targets, the FBI, Justice Department, and the intelligence community - agencies at the center of some of their biggest recent gripes. Read more

2024 battle for the Senate heats up as Republicans eye Democrats' majority

The GOP calls the Arizona Senate race a 'Democrat civil war'

FOX News| Paul Steinhauser

January 23, 2023

Rep. Ruben Gallego made it official on Monday, launching a Democratic Senate campaign in the key southwestern battleground state of Arizona, the latest sign that the 2024 battle for the Senate majority is off to a frantic pace.

"Growing up poor, all I had was the American dream. It kept me going: as a kid sleeping on the floor, a student scrubbing toilets, a Marine losing brothers in Iraq," the five-term progressive congressman wrote on Twitter. "Today, too many Arizonans see their dream slipping away. I'm running for the U.S. Senate to win it back for you!"

Gallego is running for the seat currently held by Krysten Sinema, the former moderate Democratic lawmaker who last month announced she was leaving the party and registering as an Independent. Sinema has yet to announce if she'll seek another term in 2024.

Sinema's seat is a top target for SEnate Republicans next year, as they aim to win back the SEnate majority they lost in the 2020 election cycle. The National Republican Senatorial COmmittee (NRSC), the campaign arm of the SEnate GOP, quickly highlighted that "the Democrat civil war is on in Arizona." Read more

How the White House plans to target 18 House Republicans from districts Biden won

CNN | Edward-Isaac Dovere

January 22, 2023

In parts of the West Wing and Capitol Hill, they're known as "The 18" - the 18 House Republicans elected in districts where voters supported President Joe Biden over Donald Trump. His aides are putting together plans to squeeze and shame them in the hopes of peeling off a few key votes over the next two years.

To the president and House Democratic leaders, they are the path back to the majority in 2024, and maybe even to some actual governing in between. Democrats are already making plans to pressure these Republicans to break with their party - and let their Biden-supporting voters back home know it if and when they don't.

The 18 themselves are not so convinced. Read more

WG Discussion Points: The Election Statistic That Should Alarm Democrats

WG Discussion Points | David Winston

January 20, 2023

Democrats are elated that the 2022 election was a disappointing outcome for Republicans, with the media taking every opportunity to point out that a Red Wave didn't materialize. But not all results from this election should give Democrats reason to believe that all is well. Despite how the election is being portrayed, Republicans had a significant party ID advantage over Democrats in this election (+3). Their problems were with independents, rather than the outcome resulting from any left-wing surge. WG Discussion Points January 20, 2023

The GOPAC Newsletter

News of Interest

WG Economy: The Slow Burn of Inflation

WG Economy | David Winston

January 25, 2023

A closer look at DeSantis' blowout win

Politico | Gary Fineout

January 25, 2023

McCarthy names GOP members to run sweeping investigative panel

As expected, Rep. Jim Jordan will run the subcommittee. It will also include a handful of the speaker's allies and two of his detractors.

Politico | Jordain Carney

January 24, 2023