From xxxxxx <[email protected]>
Subject Kyrsten Sinema May Not Be Called “Senator” for Long
Date January 27, 2023 1:05 AM
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[ Ruben Gallego’s rollout was strong. And a credible Democratic
candidate means Sinema’s path to reelection is awfully narrow.]
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KYRSTEN SINEMA MAY NOT BE CALLED “SENATOR” FOR LONG  
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Daniel Strauss
January 25, 2023
The New Republic
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_ Ruben Gallego’s rollout was strong. And a credible Democratic
candidate means Sinema’s path to reelection is awfully narrow. _

Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema speaking with attendees at the 2022
Update from Capitol Hill hosted by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce &
Industry at the Arizona Biltmore in Phoenix, Arizona., Photo: Gage
Skidmore from Surprise, AZ / Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike
2.0

 

When Arizona Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema was at
Davos high-fiving
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Joe Manchin over their mutual vow to protect the filibuster, she may
have actually given Congressman Ruben Gallego a boost. Gallego was
days away from announcing his candidacy for Sinema’s seat as a
Democrat. The Arizona congressman knew Sinema’s appearance at the
World Economic Forum cavorting with the neoliberal overclass only
helped his case.

That was just a few days ago, and since then Sinema’s prospects have
only gotten more dubious. Congressman Greg Stanton, another Arizona
Democrat eyeing the race, announced that he would not run for Senate,
making a chaotic Democratic primary a little less likely. On Monday,
Michigan Senator Gary Peters, the returning chairman of Senate
Democrats’ campaign arm, declined to vow to protect Sinema, a signal
that even though the newly independent Arizona senator is still
caucusing with Democrats, she may not enjoy the protections a senator
who stuck with Democrats could count on come reelection time.

All of which is to say that Sinema’s route to reelection
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already narrowed. It’s not clear how much support she has among her
Capitol Hill colleagues. All but two senators interviewed by Punchbowl
News declined to give a straight answer on whether they would support
her in 2024. Only Manchin and Senator John Hickenlooper of Colorado
indicated they’d back her. Manchin is ideologically very close to
Sinema, and Democratic aides I talked to about Hickenlooper say his
possible support was more characteristic of how he likes to operate in
response to such questions rather than an ironclad commitment. Senator
Mark Kelly, the other Arizona senator, has refrained from weighing in
directly, saying only
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Arizona voters “need a little rest from, you know, Senate races.”

It was never going to be a cakewalk. Sinema’s departure from the
Democratic Party has not helped her reelection bid. Quite the
opposite, in fact. On Tuesday, Gallego’s still new Senate campaign
announced it had raised $1 million from over 27,000 donors, topping
Kelly’s record over the same period of time, according to a press
release from the congressman’s campaign.

“She can’t run from her record. She’s abandoned her base, and
her base knows it. She was just in Davos, Switzerland, rather than
talking to folks in her home state,” said Democratic strategist
Julian Mulvey, who is advising an anti-Sinema independent expenditure
group. “And now you have a very credible candidate in Gallego, with
a compelling personal story, who’s connected to Democratic primary
voters and has a better record and vision for the state.”

Daniel Scarpinato, a Republican strategist, argued that Sinema’s
notoriety among Democrats and lack of familiarity among Republicans
makes her path difficult. “I really do think she’s hated on the
Democratic side, and so I actually think he’s going to do a pretty
good job consolidating the Democratic base,” Scarpinato said. “I
also think a lot of Republican voters don’t know that much about her
other than she’s been a problem. I don’t think they know all her
positions. I don’t think they know she’s an atheist. I don’t
think they know the degree to which she’s progressive on several
issues.”

On the surface, Arizona looks like the kind of state where an
independent senator could arguably break through. The most recent
voter registration numbers show a rough 30–30–30 split
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registered Republicans, Democrats, and independents

“A lot of people would say, generally, ‘Oh, it’s a third–a
third–a third. There’s a lot of independents in that state. That
may be on paper, but the reality is that most independents either
always or generally vote Democrat or Republican. There’s very few
people that are actually truly independent,” said Republican
strategist Steven Peutz. “The percentage of voters that are truly in
the middle, that are true swing voters that would like that profile of
an independent, are a pretty small percentage of the electorate.”

It’s “hard to see a real pathway to Sinema getting reelected. She
was going to lose the Democratic primary, but there is no path as an
independent—especially with her low favorability and no base.
Gallego is a strong candidate,” said D.J. Quinlan, a former Arizona
Democratic Party chairman.

For Republicans, meanwhile, the argument is that as long as the
eventual nominee is not an overly conservative one who turns off the
broader electorate, they have a shot. Republicans pointed to Kari
Lake’s gubernatorial run and how, despite her late surge in the
polls, she lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs. Similarly, at the beginning
of the cycle it looked like Kelly was in serious danger of losing
reelection to Republican Blake Masters. Kelly ended up winning by over
125,000 votes. “There’s a majority of voters that will vote for a
Republican if they are the right Republican running the right race,”
Peutz said. “Experience matters, your background matters, what you
said and did prior to running for office matters.”

Names bandied about in the GOP primary include Lake, Masters, and
Republican Karrin Taylor Robson, all candidates who have run statewide
before but failed, as well as former Arizona Governor Doug Ducey. The
list, in other words, isn’t short.

Among the Republicans in Arizona I talked to, there’s a sort of
bruised caution in the air. The midterms were supposed to produce a
Republican governor and Republican senator in Arizona. Instead, now
Democrats hold those two seats. If the GOP primary is going to be as
big as it looks right now, that could augur a repeat for Republicans.

“I think we’ll have a prolonged primary. That’s what Republicans
do,” Scarpinato said.

That too does not necessarily bode well for Sinema. She needs a
settled primary that produces an extreme nominee who will drive the
moderate, McCain-style Republicans away from their candidate. Recent
developments suggest the opposite is likely to happen.

Sinema’s path has always depended on both Republicans and Democrats
nominating candidates centrists find unbearable. That’s not quite
what happened. Gallego, a liberal, is indeed running, but he’s
hardly an extremist. And on the Republican side, Sinema’s record has
plenty that your average base Arizona conservative Republican voter
may not like
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It’s an increasingly complicated situation by any measure.

_[DANIEL STRAUSS is a staff writer at The New Republic.
@DanielStrauss4 [[link removed]] ]_

* Kyrsten Sinema
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* Ruben Gallego
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* 2024 Elections
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* Arizona
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* Democratic Party
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* Republican Party
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* Congress
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* Senate
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* Biden Administration
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