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MDAA Alert:
"We Remain Ready to Fight Tonight"
January 17, 2020

Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense, and Taro Kono, Japanese Defense Minister, at
a press briefing at the Pentagon on January 14, 2020 (Photo: DoD by Navy Petty Officer
2nd Class James K. Lee).
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Dear Members and Friends,
a
"We continue to send a message that we remain ready to fight tonight if necessary;
and my second mission is to enable our diplomats, and we still believe that the
best path forward is a diplomatic solution." - Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense,
at the Pentagon on January 14, 2020.
Strong capable deterrence of cost imposition, denial of threats and international
norms stabilizes, prevents conflict, enables the best diplomatic path forward, and
forces our nation's ability to defend tonight the forces prepared to fight tonight
if necessary, which is the critical underpinning of deterrence calculus for Iran
and North Korea. The weakest pillar of deterrence today is the capacity to deny
the threats. If the deterrence calculus breaks and our adversaries attack with
their weapons of choice- missiles- to challenge the United States, first to fire
will be the limited numbers of U.S. missile defense capabilities operationally deployed
around our deterrent forces and critical assets in these regions and for our homeland.
There is a very strong probability that Iran, and its proxies, and North Korea will
continue to launch missiles in a calculated manor at the weakest pillars of deterrence
as has been demonstrated to check the cost imposition of U.S. military power deterrence
and economic sanctions coupled with international norms of policing, world opinion
and United Nations deterrence.
Sanctions to take away oil production market share from Iran as the United States'
dependency on oil in the Middle East has been stopped has had an indirect consequence.
"We are now the number-one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world.
We are independent, and we do not need Middle East oil." - President Donald Trump
at the White House on January 8, 2020.
As a result the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have
had to increase their oil production. Iran's calculus was to strike both countries
territories and interests, in strikes to Saudi, Emirati, Japanese, and Norwegian
oil tankers on May 13 [[link removed]]
and June 13 [[link removed]]
and on Saudi soil by destroying facilities at an oil refinery on September 14 [[link removed]]
to collectively intimidate Saudi Arabia's and the UAE's increased oil production.
North Korea's calculus on breaking the weakest pillar of U.S. deterrence has been
to continue to launch depressed trajectories of their new short-range ballistic
missiles (7 in 2019) and to lift their self-imposed moratorium of intercontinental
ballistic missile (ICBM) and nuclear testing [[link removed]]
to increase their power projection capability and capacity to hold firm on their
nuclear weapons and negotiate with the United States in 2020.
Unilateral U.S. economic sanctions and collective United Nations sanctions have
had little effect on either of Iran or North Korea's aggressive behavior in their
development and use of missiles and by restriction of imported goods and trade on
domestic markets as they continue to hold their prices down for their people by
subsidies given to them from other nations or resulted increased trade with nations
other than the United States. Iran's number one trading partner is Italy along with
many other European countries, as well as Canada. China makes up close to 90% of
North Korea's trade. Both Iran and North Korea continue to be functional nations.
With sanctions not producing the effects of change of behavior desired, the continuation
of intimidation by missiles remains the reality of these two countries to project
power to the United States and its allies. In return, the United States simply does
not have enough missile defense capacity to defend all of its bases, people and
assets in the Middle East, Asia Pacific, and the United States homeland. The United
States critical deterrent bases and Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) in both regions
are defended by their respective service's capabilities against this threat, but
lack of capacity doesn't protect all of the critical assets and people in the regions
nor does it give sustainment depth and time for an extended fight for those assets
that are defended should deterrence break.
Compounding this limited missile defense capacity is how to best fight this fight
from U.S. policy, operations, and efficiency to increase effectiveness by cross
U.S. service using cross-domain sensors and weapon systems. The tactical implementation
of the individual missile defense systems and their operators are professional experts
that are extremely effective, reliable, and in a high state of readiness.
The greatest potential and missing opportunity to dramatically increase U.S. limited
missile defense capacity in both regions is the force multiplier of integrating
allied missile defense sensors and intercept systems already deployed in the regions
with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), in Japan, in Korea, and with our NATO partners.
Israel sets the standard of all nations of maximizing missile defense capacity and
capability in integration excellence in a bilateral defense integration with the
United States.
Japan is a close second [[link removed]]
partnering with the United States and is out front leading by increasing capacity
of missile defense systems. This week Japan's Minister of Defense, Taro Kono, stepped
forward on a five day visit to the U.S. that has included a meeting with Secretary
of Defense Mark Esper at the Pentagon and with Vice Admiral Jon Hill, Director of
the Missile Defense Agency, at the Aegis Ashore site at Pacific Missile Range Facility
(PMRF) in Hawaii.
"I'd like to thank the Minister for Japan's decision to -- to -- to deploy its Self-Defense
Force assets to the Gulf of Aden, the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. In advancing
our maritime security objectives, we will continue to share information and cooperate
on operations in the Middle East as we work to promote freedom of navigation and
freedom of commerce." - Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense, at the Pentagon on January
14, 2019.
"By utilizing the Aegis Ashore system, we'll secure Japan against North Korean missiles.
We want to deploy (the Aegis Ashore missile defense units) as soon as possible."
- Taro Kono, Japan's Minister of Defense, at the Aegis Ashore site at the PMRF
at Kauai, Hawaii on January 13, 2020.
"Second, we discussed the issue of North Korea. We affirmed that ballistic missile
launches by North Korea pose a serious threat to regional security, and confirm
the importance of whole implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution for complete,
verifiable, irreversible dismantlement of all North -- all Korea's weapons of mass
destruction and ballistic missiles of all ranges. We confirmed to work closely together
to counter North Korea's illicit ship-to-ship transfers. Third, Japan-U.S. alliance
has become even stronger and we confirmed that we continue to closely work together
to reinforce the alliance deterrence and response capability in order to operationalize
our aligned strategies. We also reaffirmed the significance of cooperation with
various partners, including conducting joint exercise and capacity building assistance,
with Japan-U.S. alliance being the cornerstone." - Taro Kono, Japan's Minister of
Defense, at the Pentagon on January 14, 2020
We as a world and as a nation have to have more missile defense capacity and capability
together along with bilateral U.S. integration with our allies of these systems
to increase our deterrence of denial to Iran and North Korea which solidifies their
calculus not to strike and provides a much stronger deterrent for stability and
peace.
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Respectfully,
Riki Ellison
Chairman and Founder
Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance
Click Here to Join MDAA [[link removed]]
MDAA is a non-profit, non-partisan tax-exempt 501(c) (4) organization. Our mission
is to make the world safer by advocating for the development and deployment of missile
defense systems to defend the United States and its allies against missile threats.
We are a membership-funded organization that does not advocate on behalf of any
specific system, technology, architecture or entity. Founded in 2002, MDAA is the
only organization in existence whose primary mission is to recruit, organize, and
mobilize proponents to advocate for the critical need of missile defense. Visit
our website www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org [[link removed]]
for more information.
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Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance
515 King Street, Suite 330
Alexandria, VA 22134
Phone: (703) 299-0060
Email: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
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