[By 2050 electric vehicles could require huge amounts of lithium
for their batteries, causing damaging expansions of mining ]
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REVEALED: HOW US TRANSITION TO ELECTRIC CARS THREATENS ENVIRONMENTAL
HAVOC  
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Nina Lakhani
January 24, 2023
The Guardian
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_ By 2050 electric vehicles could require huge amounts of lithium for
their batteries, causing damaging expansions of mining _

Joe Biden at the GM Factory Zero in Detroit, Michigan, in November
2021. , Photograph: Dominick Sokotoff/REX/Shutterstock

 

The US’s transition to electric vehicles could require three times
as much lithium as is currently produced for the entire global market,
causing needless water shortages, Indigenous land grabs, and ecosystem
destruction inside and outside its borders, new research finds.

It warns that unless the US’s dependence on cars in towns and cities
falls drastically, the transition to lithium battery-powered electric
vehicles by 2050 will deepen global environmental and social
inequalities linked to mining – and may even jeopardize the 1.5C
global heating target.

But ambitious policies investing in mass transit, walkable towns and
cities, and robust battery recycling in the US would slash the amount
of extra lithium required in 2050 by more than 90%.

In fact, this first-of-its-kind modeling shows it is possible to have
more transport options for Americans that are safer, healthier and
less segregated, and less harmful mining while making rapid progress
to zero emissions.

The research by the Climate and Community Project and University of
California, Davis, shared exclusively with the Guardian, comes at a
critical juncture with the rollout of historic funding for electric
vehicles through Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction and Infrastructure
Investment and Jobs Acts.

Recognizing the harms of ‘white gold’

The global demand for lithium, also known as white gold, is predicted
to rise over 40 times by 2040,
[[link removed]] driven
predominantly by the shift to electric vehicles. Grassroots protests
and lawsuits against lithium mining are on the rise from the US and
Chile to Serbia and Tibet amid rising concern about the
socio-environmental impacts and increasingly tense geopolitics around
supply.

The US’s affinity for cars, especially big ones, and sprawling
cities and suburbs where driving to work, school and shop is often the
only option, gives its transition to electric vehicles major global
significance.

No matter what path it chooses, the US will achieve zero emission
transportation by 2050, according to the research. But the speed of
the transition – as well as who benefits and who suffers from it –
will depend on the number and size of electric vehicles (and
batteries) Americans opt for going forward.

“Preserving the status quo might seem like the politically easier
option, but it’s not the fastest way to get people out of cars or
the fairest way to decarbonize,” said Thea Riofrancos, associate
professor of political science at Providence College and lead author
of the report.

“We can either electrify the status quo to reach zero emissions, or
the energy transition can be used as an opportunity to rethink our
cities and the transportation sector so that it’s more
environmentally and socially just, both in the US and globally.”

“The report brings into light possibilities for a future without
fossil fuels that minimizes mineral extraction and new harms to
communities in lithium-rich areas,” said Pía Marchegiani, policy
director at the Environment and Natural Resources Foundation in
Argentina.

[The GM Hummer EV at the North American international auto show in
Detroit, Michigan, in September 2022.]

The GM Hummer EV at the North American international auto show in
Detroit, Michigan, in September 2022. Photograph: Geoff
Robins/AFP/Getty Images

Transportation is the biggest source of carbon emissions in the US –
and the only sector in which emissions are still rising – making it
crucial to phase out gas and diesel vehicles as quickly as possible to
limit the climate breakdown.

Biden’s strategy to fully decarbonize the transportation sector by
2050 puts some focus on mass transit and land-use planning, but so far
the messaging – and funds – have been geared toward encouraging
Americans to swap gas-guzzling cars for electric vehicles rather than
change the way they travel.

It’s working: over half of the nation’s car sales are predicted to
be electric by 2030, and states like New York and California have
passed laws phasing out the sale of gas cars.

This is good news but there’s a catch: lithium.

Electric vehicles are already the largest source of demand for lithium
– the soft, white metal common to all current rechargeable
batteries.

Mining lithium is a fraught business, and the rise in demand for EVs
is contributing to a rise in social and environmental harms – and
global supply chain bottlenecks.

[An electric bus in Los Angeles, California.]

An electric bus in Los Angeles, California. Photograph: Ringo
Chiu/ZUMA Wire/REX/Shutterstock

If Americans continue to depend on cars at the current rate, by 2050
the US alone would need triple the amount of lithium currently
produced for the entire global market, which would have dire
consequences for water and food supplies, biodiversity, and Indigenous
rights.

But it doesn’t have to be this way, according to the
report Achieving Zero Emission Transportation With More Mobility and
Less Mining
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Best scenarios for battery size, city density and public transit

Researchers created a novel modeling tool to compare the amount of
lithium needed to achieve zero transport emissions for personal
vehicles (cars, trucks and SUVs) under different scenarios. It’s the
first study to project future lithium demand based on variables like
car ownership, battery size, city density, public transit and battery
recycling, and connect this with avoidable harms.

In each scenario, the US achieves zero emission transportation by 2050
and in each case some additional lithium mining will be needed.

How much lithium depends on policy decisions taken now, according to
the report, impacting economic prosperity, public health,
environmental justice, ecosystems and communities at every part of the
supply chain for decades to come.

In the best-case scenario – comparing the status quo in which EV
battery size grows and US car dependency remains stable – with
ambitious public transit, city density and recycling policies, the
lithium demand would be 92% lower. (Battery size, like the size of a
fuel tank, dictates range – or how far you can travel before having
to recharge.)

But results show that even if Americans can’t wean themselves off
cars with big lithium batteries, increasing the density of
metropolitan areas and investing in mass transit would cut cumulative
demand for lithium between 18% and 66%. Limiting the size of EV
batteries alone can cut lithium demand by up to 42% by 2050.

The largest reduction will come from changing the way we get around
towns and cities – fewer cars, more walking, cycling and public
transit made possible by denser cities – followed by downsizing
vehicles and recycling batteries.

It can be done: cities around the world have already begun to reduce
car use in order to improve air pollution, road safety and quality of
life. In Paris, car use declined nearly 30% from 2001 to 2015, while
in London it fell by nearly 40%.

And despite the cultural attachment to driving, fewer cars on the
roads would not mean a sacrifice in the quality of life, convenience
or safety for Americans, according to coauthor Kira McDonald, an
economist and urban policy researcher.

“If the policies, institutions, and spending patterns that shaped
our existing car dependent infrastructure and built environment
change, then alternative modes of transportation can be made far
safer, far more convenient, and faster than cars – and immensely
more pleasant and fun.”

Protecting people and the planet

Lithium deposits are geologically widespread and abundant, but 95% of
global production is currently concentrated in Australia, Chile, China
and Argentina. Large new deposits have been found
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diverse countries including Mexico, the US, Portugal, Germany,
Kazakhstan, Congo and Mali.

Lithium mining is, like all mining, environmentally and socially
harmful. More than half the current lithium production, which is very
water intensive, takes place in regions blighted by water shortages
that are likely to get worse due to global heating.

[A sign against the exploitation of lithium is seen as tourists visit
the Salinas Grandes salt flat.]

A sign against the exploitation of lithium is seen as tourists visit
the Salinas Grandes salt flat. Photograph: Aizar Raldes/AFP/Getty
Images

Despite being a relatively new industry, lithium extraction has a
track record of land and water pollution, ecosystem destruction and
violations against Indigenous and rural communities.

In the US, only one small lithium mine, in Nevada, is currently
operational, but the drought-affected state has at least 50 new
projects
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development. This includes the massive Thacker Pass mine, approved at
the end of the Trump administration, which is opposed by some
environmentalists, ranchers and Indigenous tribes due to the lack of
consultation and inadequate environmental review.

In Chile and Argentina, the world’s second- and fourth-largest
lithium producers respectively, broken promises by
corporations, water scarcity
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land contamination and the lack of informed consent from Indigenous
groups
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fueled resistance and social conflicts.

The lithium rush is already gathering pace, but keeping lithium mining
to an absolute minimum is crucial for frontline communities – and it
also makes good economic sense, according to the report.

Most forecasters predict a supply crunch in the next five to 10 years
– a period when rapid decarbonization must take place to avert even
more catastrophic global heating. The price of lithium batteries –
the most expensive component of an EV – went up for the first time
last year as demand outweighed supply.

Smaller batteries would make decarbonized transportation more
affordable. In addition, expanding mass transit systems would improve
pedestrian safety and air quality, generating health and economic
benefits.

Payal Sampat, mining program director at Earthworks, said: “The
findings of this report must jumpstart policies to invest in robust,
accessible public transit systems that advance equity, reduce
pollution and get people where they need to go.”

_Nina Lakhani is senior reporter for Guardian US.
Twitter @ninalakhani [[link removed]]_

* Electric Cars
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* lithium batteries
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* mining
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* environmental impact
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