It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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ERNEST HEMINGWAY AND A BITE OUT OF THE NEXT ELECTION
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

We can wait as long as possible to admit another campaign cycle has begun, or tackle it head-on with a matter-of-fact narrative like a character in Hemingway.

Today, we say this newsletter is “not made for defeat.” ([link removed]) We’re taking the Hemingway approach.

Here is a lay of the land for three of the biggest races that are taking shape.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s Senate seat

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Photo by Rod Lamkey/CNP/Sipa USA

What a race Democrats have here. Or potentially have. The nation’s most populous state is a core part of their party’s strength nationally. (Consider: More than one-sixth of President Joe Biden’s 2020 electoral votes came from California.)

The prospect that Sen. Dianne Feinstein might retire and leave her much-desired Senate seat open have led to careful, but clear jockeying by powerhouse Democrats. (Feinstein, 89, has kept her campaign active ([link removed]) with the Federal Election Commission, but her staff has said that does not mean the senator will run next year.)

Not waiting to find out, Rep. Katie Porter was first to formally announce ([link removed]) her bid one week ago. A whiteboard influencer ([link removed]) and onetime Elizabeth Warren protege, Porter also has this credential: She raised more money in 2022 than any other House Democrat ([link removed]) , including then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi, according to Open Secrets.

But potential competitors include another big Democratic name and campaigning juggernaut — Rep. Adam Schiff. Sources familiar told the PBS NewsHour the former House Intelligence Committee chairman is still considering his decision.

The same is true for progressive Rep. Ro Khanna, who has said he is weighing a run ([link removed]) as well. But Khanna has indicated he might step aside ([link removed]) for yet another nationally known California Democrat: Rep. Barbara Lee.

Lee has won wide respect within the party for sticking to her beliefs, in particular her decision to cast the lone vote in 2001 ([link removed]) against the war in Afghanistan.

California has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1988, raising the stakes and expectations for the Democratic primary if there is an opening. As the 19th has written ([link removed]) , the California race “is sure to be one of the most expensive and most watched in the country.”

Montana Senate
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Photo by Sarah Silbiger/Reuters

Now to a race where we expect some significant news for both parties in the next two weeks.

Sen. Jon Tester is a popular Democrat ([link removed]) in a red state that voted for Donald Trump in 2020 by more than 16 points ([link removed]) .

His is also a potential majority-making seat in a Senate where Democrats have a one-vote margin allowing them to govern.

Just before the holiday break, Tester told me he would spend this recess weighing and deciding whether he would run again.

But that is only one piece of the Big Sky drama. Likely hitting “refresh” on their “Jon Tester” alerts are the state’s two Republican members of the House.

Rep. Matt Rosendale just made headlines ([link removed]) as one of the last holdouts in Kevin McCarthy’s quest to become speaker (he voted “present” ([link removed]) in the end), while Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Mont., is a former secretary of the interior who resigned from that office after multiple controversies ([link removed]) but survived them — and an investigation ([link removed]) — to win his congressional seat.

Summary: Three of Montana’s four members of Congress could all vie for the same Senate seat.

U.S. President
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Photo by Alyssa Pointer/Reuters

Now to the big one — the 2024 presidential race.

Let’s start with what is currently the more simple side of the equation: the Democrats.

At the moment, they are operating under the assumption that Biden will formally announce he is running for reelection. Outlets report either a “coalescing” ([link removed]) around that idea, as per CNN, or an imminent campaign launch, ([link removed]) as per The Hill.

But for Republicans, a much more complicated set of dynamics is emerging.

So far only one major candidate has formally announced their bid: former President Trump. The early timing of his November announcement ([link removed]) was a message to any Republicans toying with the idea of entering the race.

Thus far, no one else has made such a step. Yet. But much is a foot.

Here are the metrics by which we judge if a lawmaker is considering or about to enter the presidential race:
* Are they working on or have they recently released a memoir?
* Visits to key early-voting states like Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina or Florida?
* Campaigning for other high-profile politicians?
* National TV interviews all of a sudden?

There are potentially dozens of Republican candidates. But let’s focus on a few at this early point.

Ron DeSantis: At the moment, polls indicate ([link removed]) Ron DeSantis is Trump’s most popular potential opponent. Even so, the Florida governor has shown steadfast discipline in staying silent ([link removed]) about his 2024 thinking, refusing even to respond to goading by Trump ([link removed]) . But, alert! His memoir is due out in February ([link removed]) . And he’s been on the road ([link removed]) lots, including to South Carolina
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Nikki Haley: She’s openly thinking about it. Haley, a former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor, told CBS she would spend the holiday season considering a 2024 run ([link removed]) . (She wrote a memoir previously, in 2019 ([link removed]) , but she also published a book on leadership ([link removed]) late last year.)

Larry Hogan: The newly former Maryland governor has said he wants to “be in position to run” ([link removed]) if there is an opening. And he said that in New Hampshire. ([link removed]) (Other visits last year included the legendary Iowa State Fair ([link removed]) .)

Mike Pence: No announcement yet. But recently released memoir? Check ([link removed]) . Iowa? Yep ([link removed]) . S.C.? Yep. ([link removed]) National TV interviews? Check ([link removed]) . Check ([link removed]) . In November, Trump’s former vice president said, “I think we’ll have better choices” ([link removed]) than his former boss.

Mike Pompeo: The former secretary of state has said he will make a decision this spring ([link removed]) and that it will not revolve around Trump. The signs point to a yes. His memoir is out this month ([link removed]) . He has put broad issues-based ads online in Iowa ([link removed]) and South Carolina. Pompeo spoke at an iconic New Hampshire event ([link removed]) .

Most Republicans in the U.S. Senate: This is a large category, we know. But it is one that remains — at least inside the minds of lawmakers at the Capitol — viable at any time. Those we are watching most closely for possible 2024 runs? Sens. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Tom Cotton of Arkansas. (Among other major factors, both put out ([link removed]) books ([link removed]) within the last six months.)

Note that Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley has said he will not run for president in 2024 ([link removed]) . But we are still keeping an eye out, in case he feels compelled.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: President Joe Biden faces intensifying scrutiny ([link removed]) over classified documents found at his home.
* One Big Question: Is this a big political crisis for the president? New York Times columnist David Brooks and Washington Post associate editor Jonathan Capehart weigh in ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: In a post-Roe U.S., what’s next for the anti-abortion movement ([link removed]) ?
* Perspectives: Martin Luther King III reflects on Dr. King’s legacy ([link removed]) in divided times.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage ([link removed])
Senior Editor, Digital

The U.S. is projected to reach its debt limit again. In about two days ([link removed]) .

The debt limit, as you’ll recall ([link removed]) , sets a “ceiling” on how much the government can borrow at any time. The Treasury said it will take “extraordinary measures” to help the U.S. continue to pay its bills until around June. But those measures are temporary.

If the U.S. hits the debt limit and defaults, it’s expected to be a financial disaster ([link removed]) . It’s up to Congress, now with a GOP-controlled House, to raise the debt limit to avoid these consequences.

Congress first enacted the debt limit ([link removed]) in 1917 with the Second Liberty Bond Act. And while the government has rarely defaulted on its debts, it has happened at least once — long before the debt limit was created.

Our question: The U.S. government defaulted on some federal debt following which war?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: What type of small business did Rep. Kevin McCarthy launch?

The answer: A deli. According to political lore, McCarthy opened Kevin O’s Deli when he was 19 years old, using his lottery winnings. Reader Elizabeth Ferry noted how's there more to McCarthy's origin story. Although the California Republican has used the story to emphasize his entrepreneurial chops at a young age, a 2018 fact check from The Washington Post ([link removed]) pointed out that he would have been 21 years old when he first opened the deli. And according to one 1986 review about the deli, it was a corner inside of McCarthy’s Yogurt, a shop owned by Kevin’s aunt and uncle.

Congratulations to our winners: David Rovner and Sandra Brown!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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