Minutes before that summit began, Gottheimer huddled with his group of House Democrats in the state house across the street. Seated in a circle in the ornate governor’s reception room, Gottheimer and his members set their red lines, deciding exactly how far they’d be willing to go — a tactic that would later prove critical to reaching a framework that day.
Hogan’s summit was hardly a freewheeling brainstorming session: Each side brought their own plans to the table. Reps. John Katko (R-N.Y.) and Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) presented the Problem Solver’s report. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) spoke on the Senate GOP’s proposal. Manchin spoke on his own priorities. But somewhere among the glossy pamphlets and expert panels, the rogue group of House and Senate moderates came up with a $1.2 trillion framework. With those figures in mind, Cassidy and Gottheimer got to work hammering out the details of exactly what projects would be included — passing a massive spreadsheet between their staffs until they reached an agreement.
At one point, Gottheimer called out Cassidy for the roughly $6 billion set aside to cap abandoned oil and gas mines, a problem in the senator’s home state of Louisiana. “Why should I care about this?” Gottheimer goaded him. Cassidy retorted that the spreadsheet also included billions of dollars to “build some tunnel between New Jersey and New York,” referring to the enormous project known as the Gateway tunnel. Gottheimer laughed and conceded: “You’re right,” he said. “Put your number in.” To Cassidy, it was yet another instance of Gottheimer’s straight-shooter style that was critical to reaching deals: “He’s not going to just fold. But if you give him a good answer, he’s going to say, ‘I’m with you.’”
Within weeks, that outline helped spark a deal that Biden would announce at the White House, flanked by many of those very same Senate centrists who’d been in Annapolis, including Cassidy. By early August, the Senate, stunningly, passed the deal. “The very elements of what we included were the same exact ones that Biden signed into law,” said Upton, who credits the Annapolis summit for reviving the cross-aisle talks. Cassidy mostly agreed, calling that initial spreadsheet “first cousins, two times over” of the final bill.
That infrastructure bill, however, quickly became stuck in the House. Distrustful of Manchin and his band of Senate centrists, a large contingent of House Democrats — backed by Pelosi — were adamant that infrastructure go no further without a huge chunk of social spending alongside it. As the stalemate went on, Gottheimer and other House moderates were stewing. Gottheimer announced in a missive to Pelosi that he and eight others — all but one in the Problem Solvers group — would block that social spending bill if she refused to move ahead with infrastructure. Both sides were furious. Biden himself came to the House twice to pry loose an agreement. Twice, he left empty-handed. Multiple members described it as the most tense point in Biden’s entire first term.
Gottheimer and his group huddled constantly to discuss new strategies as pressure from his own party ratcheted up. He wanted to stay focused on the plan — forcing Democrats to separate the infrastructure bill from Biden’s broader, far more expensive priority — but some of his fellow rebels had other promises they wanted secured. Ultimately, they won a promise for an infrastructure vote by the end of September — but that date slipped after progressive angst failed to recede throughout the fall. One centrist, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) remembers being asked to attend so many meetings with Gottheimer that he offered to get his colleague a dog to help with the loneliness. And all of them remember the edginess of their caucus: “It was a mess,” said Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas), one of the nine Democrats who defied their party leaders. “I still have angry messages from Pelosi calling me.” Liberal Democrats complain that the standoff resulted in nothing but delays.
It all culminated in that stunning off-year election in November 2021, where local Democrats lost in states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York and Gottheimer’s home state of New Jersey. Gottheimer saw this as a backhanded endorsement of the Problem Solvers’ approach; if Democrats had proven they could get things like infrastructure done, he argued, they might have won those races. When House Democrats gathered the next morning, then-caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries read aloud a quote from former New York City Mayor David Dinkins: “The fact is that we Democrats often form a firing squad in a circular fashion” — a warning to his party about the risks of turning on each other.
Gottheimer and his group went to work, alongside other moderates like Beatty and former Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D-Mich.), who was also exhausted by the impasse. By that Friday in November 2021, the day of that fateful meeting in Pelosi’s office, the so-called “unbreakable nine” had worked out a deal, securing buy-in from the Congressional Progressive Caucus. That group’s leader, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who had fought Gottheimer’s nine centrists for months, faced intense pressure from within the party after successfully blocking the infrastructure bill for months without securing Biden’s more progressive party-line bill. While many Democrats suggested progressives’ sudden reversal was intended to avoid blame for the Virginia governor’s loss amid mounting frustration in their caucus, Jayapal told reporters at the time it was actually about a $1.75 billion framework that Biden had presented a week prior. So with a new willingness to compromise, Jayapal, Gottheimer and others met for hours to hammer out a joint statement that made clear both Jayapal and Gottheimer’s camps would ultimately get the floor votes they wanted on the legislation they craved. Even Biden called to weigh in. Jayapal asked each of the House moderates, including Gottheimer, to look her in the eye after they signed a statement vowing to help with the rest of Biden’s priorities. By the end of the evening, Jayapal stood side-by-side with Gottheimer as the two promised to deliver both of Biden’s priorities.
Biden signed the infrastructure bill in a South Lawn ceremony as trumpets blasted “God Bless America” in the background. Gottheimer wasn’t visible from the bank of cameras focused on the podium. But he was convinced he had passed perhaps his biggest test to date — achieving a bipartisan win on a national stage, just as he and his GOP counterparts had for years insisted they were there to do. Biden called him “the best go-between I’ve had trying to get all this done.” (Gottheimer wasn’t the only one with a spot-on whip count, Upton wrote down the names on a napkin before the vote: “It was exactly right,” he recalled. Gottheimer’s whip count, legible to no one but him, is now hanging in his office.)
“It was the first time where we really had to stick together as a caucus,” said Fitzpatrick. “That experience was very rough on us. It also bound us together.”
Some Democrats, however, recall things far differently.
Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), a progressive leader who has tangled with Gottheimer, still sees the Problem Solvers as “shadily funded” and doing “nothing but create problems.” He and several other liberal Democrats came close to joining them in 2017. But they were quickly turned off by No Labels’ influence, including its many Wall Street donors.
“When I tried to find out” more about the group’s funding, Pocan said, “they told me they would quietly ban me from the group. ‘I told them I don’t do anything quietly.’”
(The non-profit group No Labels does not give direct financial support to the Problem Solvers group, but its PAC can — and often does — donate to its members. The group’s structure is similar to other Hill caucus relationships with outside groups, such as the GOP Main Street Caucus or the Blue Dog Coalition.)
And Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), a progressive Democrat, described the infrastructure negotiations as “a rogue operation,” though he ultimately supported it. There were some good things in it, but there were also some lousy things in it.”
“For a while, it looked like it was a Joe Manchin fan club,” Huffman said. “It’s basically a group that lays in wait and looks for opportunities to circumvent leadership. That can have the effect of really undermining the party ... If you have confidence in our leaders, then this is not constructive. It actually weakens their hand. And it complicates our ability to get problems solved.”
If there’s anyone who understands Gottheimer’s ambitions, it’s Manchin. Both have been both reviled and revered by their party in the span of a single year for their almost Pollyanna approach to bipartisanship. The 6-foot-3 West Virginian is a big fan of his fast-talking Tri-State colleague nearly a head shorter than him.
“People can get upset, it’s because he’s just not out of sync — he’s grounded. He’s grounded in reality. He’s realistic about what can be done in a democracy that takes compromise. That’s Josh Gottheimer,” Manchin said. The West Virginian hasn’t just been impressed by the “can-do” energy, it’s also Gottheimer’s impeccable vote-counting. “I have learned to truly trust and work with him when he tells me it’s factual. He checks it out for us. ‘I think I can do this. I don’t think I can. I think we might have a problem here. What do you think?’ We go back and forth. He’s always been dead-on.”
Those whip powers could soon be useful to someone else: Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
With the tightest House margin since World War II, McCarthy — after his dramatic four-day, 15-ballot election to the top post on Jan. 7 — will almost certainly, eventually, need Gottheimer to help carry the load on bills that conservatives balk at. And with the House set for another two frenetic years with threadbare margins, it will require plenty of political and procedural gymnastics to overcome opposition from the loudest faction of both parties. Fitzpatrick, for instance, has floated a strategy to circumvent a market-rattling debt ceiling crash by teaming up with Democrats on a break-the-glass maneuver known as a discharge petition, which allows rank-and-file members to force consideration of a bill outside of the House’s typical process. But he hopes it won’t be needed and can instead work with Democrats on debt ceiling legislation through so-called “regular order.” “I’m going to need Josh and my colleagues to get on board with that,” Fitzpatrick said of the looming debt fight, which he said will need some spending cuts to pass the chamber. “We have some major critical things to get done. And with a narrow GOP majority here, and a narrow Dem majority in the Senate... There’s no other choice.”
Gottheimer’s allies say he’ll approach the task of negotiating with McCarthy and his leadership with the extraordinary metabolism that he brings to everything — an intensity level described as nearly manic, even in a Capitol full of overachievers. After his usual four-and-a-half-hour night’s sleep, he’s in the House gym at 6:30 a.m. for a group workout, which has for years been led by ex-MMA fighter, and now senator, Markwayne Mullen (R-Ok.). While he’s there, he’ll sometimes blast the band Guns N’ Roses to the ire of some colleagues. (Rep. Gary Palmer, a conservative Republican from Alabama, deadpanned: “He really is a fun guy, except for his music.”) Several of his fellow lawmakers have told him they’d be afraid to ride in a car he’s driving. Fittingly, his caffeine of choice is a cold can of Red Bull.
He and Fitzpatrick could have a critical advantage to the next two disorderly years of divided government — if the fierce partisanship between their parties thaws enough to allow their brand of deal-making. Each of them will have extremely close relationships to the men slated to take charge come January. “He’s very close to Hakeem, I’m very close to Kevin. I think that’s going to help,” Fitzpatrick said. Gottheimer, too, is on good terms with McCarthy — to a point: “I have a good relationship with Kevin,” he said, adding quickly, “If he had to kill me, he would.”
As two 40-somethings from the Mid-Atlantic, Fitzpatrick joked that he sometimes feels like he was “put into an arranged marriage” with Gottheimer, forced to “figure out all his quirks.” Fitzpatrick, an easygoing former FBI agent who detests horse-race politics, is Gottheimer’s political opposite. But if they can continue to harness their different styles, the Pennsylvanian said he expects them to have a huge impact when it comes to rounding up votes for the debt limit, Ukraine funding, federal surveillance bills and other tough issues.
“This is the opportunity for the Problem Solvers Caucus to really play that role that it has struggled to play,” said another group member, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.). Gottheimer, he said, “is the gatekeeper on one side and Fitzpatrick, the gatekeeper on the other. More likely it starts with them.”
Manchin, for one, is ready to lean on Gottheimer and Fitzpatrick to negotiate big deals to lower the national debt, shore up Social Security and bolster U.S. energy sources in next year’s divided Congress. And while their group of House moderates will be smaller next year — losing retiring moderates in both members like Upton, Murphy and Katko — they believe it’ll be mightier with just a four-seat margin. They’re still finalizing the number of members but expect it to be higher than last year’s total of 58. Gottheimer said interest in the group has “spiked” this year.
Gottheimer summed it up like this: “They’re going to have to cut deals. They’re going to turn to people like me.”