Jan. 12, 2023
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Prices decline in December as inflation decreases to 6.5 percent past 12 months, but are still up 13.7 percent since Jan. 2021
By Robert Romano
Consumer inflation has fallen to 6.5 percent over the past 12 months as petroleum and gasoline prices continue declining according to the latest data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In December, prices for all items actually declined 0.1 percent.
Which is what usually happens in recessions after peak employment is reached. Consumers max out on their credit cards and although nominally it appears they are spending a lot, they are not able to buy as many products from a quantity standpoint, and so prices cool. The vicious cycle sets in once the layoffs ensue.
Sure enough, continuing unemployment claims on a non-seasonally adjusted basis were up 165,000 the week after the new year. But that’s also what usually happens after the holidays and seasonal employees are let go, BLS reports: “The advance unadjusted level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 1,873,668, an increase of 163,055 (or 9.5 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 235,888 (or 13.8 percent) from the previous week.”
But the rub might come later as prices from consumers’ perspectives are still quite high. Overall, since Jan. 2021, the consumer price index is up a grand total of 13.7 percent from where they were. But their incomes are not up 13.7 percent. If prices remain at their elevated levels, it’s going to wear on U.S. household budgets over time.
For perspective, from Jan. 2017 to Jan. 2019 under former President Donald Trump, the consumer price index was up just 3.6 percent.
It wasn’t just the price of gas that went up — the price of everything went up.
Prices now going down just 0.1 percent is not enough of an offset for this imbalance to cure itself, so something’s got to give. Historically, that has meant recessions, but amid the Baby Boomer retirement wave, employers might not need to pare back as much as they have traditionally have. We’re having tremendous labor shortages at a time that would otherwise be quite tumultuous for U.S. workers.
Examples like Japan show that unemployment tends to be lower overall when you see aging demographics in advanced economies such as the U.S. is experiencing, combined with lower fertility—less than 2 babies per woman for many years now—and the characteristics of recessions have changed. There, unemployment never got above 6 percent in the 2001 and the 2008-2009 recessions, and barely got above 3 percent during the Covid lockdowns.
So, perhaps those demographic forces can soften whatever recession is occurring. In Europe, prices are starting to recede as well, where there was a massive price shock after Russia invaded Ukraine. Now, new supply chains for natural gas and oil too are being bolstered. But Europe similarly has Baby Boomer retirement wave well underway, and recently recorded its lowest unemployment rate overall since 1998. Europe is still hitting peak employment as the inflation wave is beginning to recede.
But wars are not entirely unpredictable from an economic standpoint. They also result in mobilizations. So, there might be higher prices, but there is also a lot of economic activity that surrounds them, which during the great wars resulted in massive explosions of Gross Domestic Product and inflation, and lower overall unemployment, usually owing to drafts being instituted and therefore an artificially smaller labor force.
The question might be less of whether there is or soon will be a recession, but a question of how bad it will be. If in Europe, which is the front door of the war, isn’t faring too badly so far from a labor market standpoint, will the U.S.? Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Gosar Once Again Introduces Resolution to Terminate COVID-19 National Emergency
U.S. Representative Paul Gosar, D.D.S. (AZ-09) issued the following statement after introducing H.J.Res.7, a resolution to terminate Joe Biden’s COVID-19 national emergency powers.
“With the 118th Congress now underway, the first piece of legislation I once again introduced is a joint resolution to terminate the now obsolete COVID-19 national emergency declaration repeatedly extended by Biden.
Emergency powers were created to give the executive branch flexibility to respond to a range of crises facing the United States. Importantly, emergency declarations require Congress to meet every six months to consider whether the emergency should be extended or terminated.
By any measure, the pandemic in the United States has ended. Even Joe Biden agrees, stating on 60 Minutes last September, that the “pandemic is over.” So why does Joe Biden continue to demand the COVID-19 national emergency be extended? The answer is simple, to force Americans to live under extreme measures that deprive us of our freedoms.
There is no ongoing COVID-19 emergency to justify the continuation of the national emergency declaration. Cases are down and most Americans have returned to a pre-pandemic normalcy. This hardly sounds like a country under a national emergency which is why I am calling on my colleagues and Mr. Biden to reverse course and move to give the People back their say in government,” concluded Rep. Paul Gosar
35 Cosponsors of H.J.Res.7: Representatives Thomas Massie, Warren Davidson, Randy Weber, Scott Perry, Brian Mast, Ken Buck, Matt Gaetz, Troy Nehls, Claudia Tenney, Greg Steube, Andrew Clyde, Tom Tiffany, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Doug Lamborn, Ralph Norman, Lauren Boebert, Tim Burchett, Rick Allen, Virginia Foxx, Doug LaMalfa, Mary Miller, Chip Roy, Ronny Jackson, Andy Biggs, Greg Muphy, Dan Bishop, Brian Babin, Harriet Hageman, Tom McClintock, Matt Rosendale, Diana Harshbarger, Darrell Issa, Ken Calvert, Chris Smith, and Mike Bost
“At this point in Joe Biden’s administration, it should surprise no one that this President and power thirsty bureaucrats refuse to surrender the oversized powers granted by the ongoing COVID national emergency declaration,” said Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS). “Americans voted last November for a check on Biden’s out-of-control big government that used its pandemic powers as an excuse to threaten small businesses and schools with lockdowns, terminate workers and military servicemembers for refusing the COVID vaccine, and enact student loan forgiveness for the Democrats’ political base. The White House twice threatened to veto my resolution to terminate the COVID-19 national emergency in 2022, and now that Republicans control the House of Representatives, I’m looking forward to working with Rep. Gosar to make this President put his money where his mouth is.”
“The National Emergencies Act was never intended to give the President endless and unlimited authority over Americans’ lives. What’s more, President Biden himself has stated, “The pandemic is over.” But if that’s the case, then why is the COVID-19 National Emergency still in effect? The truth is it’s all about power. It’s long past time to put an end to this outdated and unnecessary National Emergency once and for all,” said Rep. Chip Roy (TX-21).
“I’m grateful to join Congressman Gosar’s resolution to terminate President Biden’s COVID-19 national emergency powers declaration. President Biden has abused these powers to assert control and take liberties away from the American population. He continues to extend these draconian powers despite COVID cases and deaths remaining low. Congress must reclaim its critical check on the power of the executive branch. These national emergency powers were never intended to be extended indefinitely. Since President Biden has already declared that the ‘pandemic is over,’ his Administration should immediately end the usage of these powers,” said Rep. Andy Biggs (AZ-5).
“COVID is over. Even Joe Biden admitted it on national television. It defies common sense that Biden would continue to try and spend tax dollars like a drunken sailor under the guise of a national emergency declaration. It is time to put the pandemic craziness behind us once and for all and end the national emergency declaration,” said Rep. Lauren Boebert (CO-3).
“Last September, Joe Biden admitted on national television that the COVID-19 pandemic was over, yet his administration will not stop clinging to the repressive executive powers reserved only for national emergencies,” said Congressman Tiffany. “It’s past time for Joe Biden to end this authoritarian abuse and put the freedoms of the American people first,”said Rep. Tom Tiffany (WI-7).
“The Commander in Chief himself declared an end to the COVID-19 pandemic. At this point, the administration is only continuing the emergency declaration to grasp onto additional powers and exert undue control over the American people. It’s time to terminate Biden’s COVID-19 emergency powers,” said Rep. Greg Steube (FL-17).
“I proudly support this resolution. America does not have a COVID emergency and the President shouldn’t be allowed to govern as if we do. The federal government should never again be allowed to take away our rights – to assemble, to worship, to travel, to visit sick loved ones, to keep our medical information private, and to earn a living. There are many critical lessons to learn from how our government overreached in responding to this pandemic and I look forward to a full investigation by the House of Representatives,” said Rep. Harriet Hageman (WY).
“COVID is over. And everyone is over the hysteria. It’s time to end all the excuses Democrats have used to abuse the people, destroy our economy, and implement their Communist agenda on America,” said Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-14).
Supported by: Heritage Action, FreedomWorks, Americans for Limited Government, Advancing American Freedom, Less Government
“By definition emergencies end, and the COVID emergency is over. President Joe Biden’s September 18, 2022 statement on 60 Minutes, “…the pandemic is over” reveals that the President agrees that the COVID emergency is over. This new Congress needs to officially agree with President Biden’s assessment and end the on-going emergency declaration. Unfortunately, the extensions of this emergency have nothing to do with its original purpose and everything to do with expanding the power of the Executive Branch allowing it to skirt rules under a false pretense. America is supposed to be a nation of laws, and COVID has been used as an excuse to avoid regular procedures designed to protect the individual rights of its citizens. It is time to finally return to normal by ending the COVID emergency declaration once and for all,” said Rick Manning, President of Americans for Limited Government.
“The only thing government likes more than spending money it doesn’t have and isn’t supposed to spend? It’s seizing and wielding power it isn’t supposed to have. Getting them to relinquish that power - is even more difficult than getting them to stop spending. That’s why Representative Gosar’s bill is so necessary. It’s must-pass legislation - in the non-DC, true sense of that phrase,” said Sean Motley of Less Government.
Background
The National Emergencies Act (NEA) was passed in 1974 to reign in presidential emergency powers which are activated when a formal emergency is declared. On March 13, 2020, President Trump rightfully declared a national emergency concerning COVID-19. Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi have since repeatedly blocked debate about the merits of the extended declaration, as required by law. A provision in the NEA requires Congress to review termination of national emergencies, stating that after six months, and every six months after the emergency continues, Congress must meet to consider a resolution of termination. In the 117th Congress, Congressman Paul Gosar introduced multiple resolutions, including H.J.Res.46, to require Congress to debate the merits of the continued emergency declaration. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi changed the rules of the entire House to prevent members of Congress from considering the resolution. Congressman Gosar introduced a petition in an attempt to force consideration of H.J. Res. 46 in the 117th Congress, garnering 132 Republican signers. Companion legislation recently passed the Senate with overwhelming bi-partisan support, 61-37.
H.J.Res.7 is subject to expedited procedures in the 118th Congress. Federal law and new House Rules require Congress to expeditiously debate H.J.Res.7 and whether the COVID-19 national emergency declaration shall be terminated.
To view online: https://gosar.house.gov/news/email/show.aspx?ID=2XST4FFFZXYMMBKA732AT35BEY