[In short, western and particularly US domination of the world
financial order considerably limits the possibilities for the new Pink
Tide administrations to develop their economies successfully. A near
monopoly of 96% of the region’s trade continues to be denominated in
US dollars.]
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LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: YEAR 2022 IN REVIEW  
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Roger D. Harris
December 29, 2022
Marxism Leninism Today
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*
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_ In short, western and particularly US domination of the world
financial order considerably limits the possibilities for the new Pink
Tide administrations to develop their economies successfully. A near
monopoly of 96% of the region’s trade continues to be denominated in
US dollars. _

Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva gives a speech celebrating his victory in
the Brazilian presidential election.,

 

2023 marks the 200th anniversary of the Monroe Doctrine. This imperial
fiat arrogates to the US the unilateral authority to intervene in the
affairs of sovereign states in the Western Hemisphere and to exclude
any other power from meddling in what is viewed as Washington’s
backyard. Two centuries later, the doctrine faces a fragile future.

Going into the new year, the neoliberal model for regional development
has been discredited in Latin America and the Caribbean The socialist
model is under siege, and the social-democratic model is encountering
unfavorable conditions.

Paradoxically, the very problems that the progressive movements
protested against, which brought them into power, now have become
theirs to solve, once in power and in a time of mounting economic
distress. Antonio Gramsci’s observation back in 1930 aptly
characterizes the current state: “The crisis consists precisely in
the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this
interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.”

VOLATILE US HEGEMONY

Last June, US President Joe Biden issued his imperial summons for a
hemispheric “democracy summit” in Los Angles but did not invite
Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba. Mexican President Andrés Manuel
López Obrador, known by the acronym AMLO, took umbrage that not all
of the countries of Our Americas had been invited. He then led a
boycott of the event, causing a major embarrassment
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to the self-proclaimed world leader of democracy.

Regardless, the principal superpower, far from retrenching, has been
intent in extending its imperial fiat to the whole planet. With
overwhelming military dominance – a war budget larger than the next
nine contenders – the US has aggressively asserted “full spectrum
dominance” over the entire world.

From a previous stance of enforcing a “Pax Americana” on the
premise that a stable world order is good for capitalism, the US has
become the leading provocateur of chaotic conditions, most notably
provoking a confrontation with Russia, which could escalate to nuclear
war.

And with overwhelming financial dominance
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the imperial power has imposed sanctions on a third of humanity,
throwing the world economy into a gathering recession
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In reaction, proposals for alternatives
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to the US dollar are being circulated. But paradoxically, the
greenback is stronger
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the last two decades, because it provides what is perceived as the
most secure shelter from the international economic precariousness
itself precipitated by the US.

PINK TIDE SURGES

Starting in 2018, neoliberal regimes in _all_ the major economies in
Latin America have been defeated at the ballot box. AMLO ended over 36
years of neoliberal rule
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in Mexico in July 2018. Mexico is the second largest regional economy,
the thirteenth in the world, and the US’s second largest trading
partner.

In Argentina, Alberto Fernández replaced Mauricio Macri in October
2019. Luis Arce retook Bolivia in October 2020 after a coup had
overthrown leftist Evo Morales a year before. In Peru, Pedro Castillo,
a rural school teacher from the leftist Perú Libre Party, became
president in June 2021. Former student protest leader, Gabriel Boric
was victorious in Chile in December 2021.

Gustavo Petro became the first left-leaning president ever in
Colombian history in June. The former leftist guerilla, since
gravitated to the center left, ran with Afro-descendent
environmentalist Francia Márquez. Their Pacto Histórico emerged out
of the protest movements of 2019 and 2020. In defiance of the US, the
new administration has reestablished friendly relations with
neighboring Venezuela, while it has pursued implementing the 2016
Peace Accords with paramilitaries and guerillas.

The spectacular comeback of Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil over Jair
“Trump of the Tropics” Bolsonaro last October was of international
significance. Brazil is the leading economy in the region and eighth
in the world. Lula, as he is affectionately called, went from being a
popular president from 2003 to 2010, to sitting out the 2018
presidential contest in prison as a victim of US-backed
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“lawfare,” to again winning the presidency.

Lula promises ambitious social programs for the poor. Although his
inauguration is not until January 1, 2023, he is already playing a
leading international role, championing regional integration. Ignoring
the lessons of Gadaffi and Hussein whose attempts to replace the US
dollar were terminated with extreme prejudice, Lula has proposed the
“sur” as a new regional currency.

Among the smaller countries, Xiomara Castro became the first female
president of Honduras a year ago. This was an especially sweet triumph
for the left as her husband Manuel Zelaya had been deposed in a
US-backed coup in 2009. Her predecessor, Juan Orlando Hernández
(JOH), was immediately extradited to the US for drug trafficking
proving beyond doubt that hers was a victory over a
nacro-dictatorship. JOH was the last of a line of corrupt _golpistas
_(coup mongers) that the US had propped up for the last dozen years.

Other developments on the left included a successful referendum for a
new progressive family code in Cuba, legalizing same-sex marriages. In
Nicaragua, which was recovering from an unsuccessful US-backed coup in
2018, the left Sandinista party swept the municipal elections last
November.

VENEZUELA’S RESURGENCE

A leader of the left initiative, Venezuela has been enjoying a
resurgence. A year ago last November, the ruling socialist party
(PSUV) swept the regional and legislative elections. The economy
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which had been tanked by US-imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions,
has shown signs of recovery
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with hyperinflation under control and oil production slowly
recuperating.

Juan Guaidó, Venezuela’s so-called “interim president,” was
anointed by Donald Trump in 2019. But today, only a handful of
Washington’s most sycophantic allies along with Mr. Biden fail to
recognize the democratically elected Nicolás Maduro as the legitimate
president of Venezuela.

Guaidó’s term in the National Assembly will expire by January 5 and
any fiction of his “interim presidency” will be over with his own
far-right bloc rejecting
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him. Unfortunately, this came too late for the imprisoned Venezuelan
diplomat Alex Saab. His bid for freedom under diplomatic immunity was
rejected on December 23 by a federal judge in Miami largely on the
grounds that he was appointed as a special envoy by a government the
US does not recognize.

MULTILATERALISM

The entire region is tilting toward more independence from the
“Colossus of the North” and toward its corollary, greater regional
integration. Collective bodies, which exclude the US and its vassal
Canada, are being revived. UNASUR
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CELAC
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MERCOSUR
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and ALBA
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date back from the previous Pink Tide led by Venezuela’s Hugo
Chávez. The vision of _patria grande, _the project of Latin American
unity, is alive.

Significantly, China has emerged as the region’s second largest
trading partner, with over twenty states in the region joining
Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. This provides a substitute to
monopolar dependence on commerce with Uncle Sam. Russia, too, has been
pushing under the greenback curtain. Brazil is already in the BRICS
alliance with Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Argentina is
slated to join an expanded BRICS+.

China, Russia
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and newcomer Iran
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have more than provided an alternative. They have been a vital
lifeline for the explicitly socialist states of Nicaragua, Cuba, and
Venezuela, which are in the crosshairs of imperialism.

REVOLT AGAINST THE NEOLIBERAL MODEL

“Neoliberalism was born in Chile and here it will die” was the
slogan of the massive demonstrations of 2019-2020 in Chile. This was
also the animating sentiment of the entire current Pink Tide, which
was a reaction to and rejection of the discredited neoliberal model
for development. Neoliberalism is roughly defined as the contemporary
form of so-called free-market capitalism.

Out of the anti-neoliberal protests in Chile came the Gabriel Boric
presidency and a referendum on replacing the Pinochet-era
constitution. The latter was soundly defeated
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by the voters on September 4. And, of the current crop of “pink”
presidents, Boric has criticized his more left-leaning colleagues for
being “authoritarian,” while he has suffered plummeting approval
ratings at home.

The rejection of the neoliberalism model has also spawned more
decidedly non-progressive manifestations with the rise of right
populism, epitomized by Bolsonaro in Brazil. The appeal of someone as
unappealing as Donald Trump in the US is a similar example. Such
politicians opportunistically capitalize on the revulsion against
neoliberalism by associating its failures with their more liberal
opponents.

The poster child for the failure of the neoliberal model is Haiti. The
proud home of the first successful revolution and slave revolt in the
region in 1804, Haiti has had to pay “reparations” for freeing the
slaves. A burdensome debt imposed by mainly the former colonial power
of France and the US has contributed to Haiti being the poorest nation
in the region.

US-led policy further destroyed small-scale agriculture impoverishing
the population to serve as cheap labor for foreign corporations. The
US had twice helped engineer coups removing the democratically elected
President Jean-Bertrand Aristide.

Today, Haitian civil society has risen up, and all the US can propose
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is a return of a multi-national military force. Haiti is without an
elected president, a parliament that doesn’t meet, and governmental
services that barely function; proof that western patronage is a
formula for un-development.

SOCIALIST ALTERNATIVE UNDER SIEGE

The current surge of the Pink Tide was a “battle at the ballot
box” focused on the electoral arena. It did not produce any new
socialist revolutions, and none are on the horizon. On the contrary,
the socialist states of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are under heavy
siege, struggling for survival.

These states have had to retrench some of their social programs,
forced by economic necessity to introduce clearly neoliberal forms
such as “free-trade” zones. Of the three countries with explicitly
socialist governments, it should be noted, only Cuba has a socialist
economy where there is central planning and where key economic units
are state-controlled.

While US hegemony may be on an increasingly fragile footing, there is
no counter-hegemonic force in the current world geopolitical arena
comparable to the former Soviet Union and the role that it played in
fostering a socialist alternative. China offers alternative trade
opportunities, along with limited debt relief, cultural exchanges, and
Covid care assistance. But much more than mere commerce is needed to
offset the deleterious impacts of US “hybrid warfare” on Cuba,
Nicaragua, and Venezuela. The current reality is that all states have
to engage in an international economy where the US dollar is supreme.

The debilitating effects of the blockades imposed by the US and its
allies have been further amplified by the impact of the Covid pandemic
and then followed by lethal hurricanes, rains, and flooding last
October. As a result, all three socialist countries have experienced
unprecedentedly high out migration
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this last year.

Recent on-again-off-again offers of asylum to Nicaraguans
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and Venezuelans
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and the longstanding Cuban Adjustment Act
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are deliberately perverse incentives exacerbating out migration from
the socialist states.

The economic refugees from the socialist states should be
distinguished from the Northern Triangle migrants from Honduras, El
Salvador, and Guatemala who are also fleeing gangs, societal violence
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and insecurity in addition to economic push factors. They, along with
Mexicans, continue to comprise the bulk of those seeking to enter the
US.

LIMITS AND LIABILITIES OF THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC MODEL

Compared to its zero-tolerance of the nominally socialist states,
cooption and subversion are Washington’s strategies for the regional
social democracies. Governance in Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, and others
is based on a lopsided partnership. The owning classes control, but
allow some of the wealth produced by the popular classes to remain
with those who produced it.

In the previous Pink Tide wave around 2008, such uneasy inter-class
arrangements allowed dramatic decreases in poverty. The more
privileged sectors did well too, such as large and politically
powerful agribusinesses in Brazil, because a booming international
commodities tide raised all ships.

These states now face a much-changed international economic
recessionary climate. Low interest rates the previous decade and then
the need for emergency spending during the Covid crisis encouraged the
accumulation of high debt obligations. Debts now must be paid back in
more costly dollars in these globally inflationary times. Capital
flight to western banks is accelerating. Under such conditions,
fulfillment of social programs is more problematic.

In short, western and particularly US domination of the world
financial order considerably limits the possibilities for the new Pink
Tide administrations to develop their economies successfully. A near
monopoly
[[link removed]]
of 96% of the region’s trade continues to be denominated in US
dollars.

COUNTERCURRENTS

As the metaphor of the Pink Tide implies, the grand class struggle
ebbs and flows. President Arce of Bolivia survived a rightwing coup
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attempt in October. Then by yearend, the progressive project suffered
back-to-back reversals
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in Argentina and Peru.

Current vice-president and former president (2003-2007) of Argentina,
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, was the leading contender on the left
for the 2023 elections. But on December 6, she was sentenced to six
years in prison for corruption and barred from running for office.
Although she is appealing what is considered a “lawfare” frameup
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the right is anticipating a comeback in the upcoming election. A huge
debt burden and high inflation rates, incurred by the previous
rightwing administration, was inherited
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by the current left Peronist government.

The next day, former CIA operative
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and current US ambassador to Peru, Lisa Kenna, is widely credited with
greenlighting
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a parliamentary coup
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The elected president of Peru, Pedro Castillo, is now imprisoned and
some 30 people have been killed in popular demonstrations in his
support. Mexico, Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, Nicaragua, and Bolivia
have condemned
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the coup. Colombian President Petro commented
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“The crisis in Peru, the imprisonment, without a judge and without
defense, of a popularly elected president, has seriously questioned
the role of the American Convention in the Latin American legal
system.”

Latin Americans quip that the reason there never has been a successful
coup in the US is because there is no US embassy in Washington. The
retort to that aspersion on Yankee integrity is that with the neo-con
takeover of the Democratic Party, there is no reason for a coup.

US ambassadors to Honduras and Mexico were among the more vocal in
interfering in the internal politics of their host countries this last
year. Meanwhile Nicaragua preemptively rejected the appointed US
ambassador to Managua after he blatantly criticized his presumptive
post country in his congressional ratification hearing.

Biden has continued Trump’s policies for Latin America and the
Caribbean with only a few cosmetic variations. Full-throated
regime-change  measures for Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua are more
aggressive and effective
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than ever before, according to the Cubans.

And as bad as Trump’s treatment of immigrants from south of the
border had been, Biden’s has been arguably worse. The US special
envoy to the debacle in Haiti publicly quit in protest to the current
administration’s “inhumane
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policies.

Symptomatic of the bipartisan Washington consensus was the so-called
BOLIVAR Act
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tightening sanctions on Venezuela, which passed the US Senate by
unanimous vote on December 16. The US legislation was pointedly named
after Simón Bolívar, the revered leader of the struggle against
colonialism and for regional integration in South America.

That the imperialists abused the name of Bolívar can best be
understood in the context of his prescient observation in 1829: “The
United States seems destined by providence to plague America with
misery in the name of liberty.”

_-ROGER D.  HARRIS__ is with the 38-year-old human rights group,
__Task Force on the Americas_ [[link removed]]_, and
the __FreeAlexSaab Campaign_ [[link removed]]_._

EDITORS NOTE: Part III or the Conclusion of Roger D. Harris’ _The
Volatility of US Hegemony in Latin America _
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I and II appeared on our website three weeks ago) can be viewed at
this archival link The Volatility of US Hegemony in Latin America –
Conclusion | MLToday
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or at _CounterPunch_
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* Latin America in 2022; US Policy in Latin America; The Pink Tide;
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