Daily News Brief
January 15, 2020
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Top of the Agenda
U.S., China Set to Finalize Initial Trade Deal
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. President Donald J. Trump are expected to sign (WSJ) a “Phase One” trade deal today aimed at de-escalating two years of trade tensions that have shaken global commerce.
 
The text of the deal, set to be released today, is expected to include Chinese commitments to buy $200 billion worth of U.S. goods and services over two years, but also to preserve the majority of the tariffs (NYT) that Trump has placed on $360 billion worth of Chinese goods. It reportedly includes measures on intellectual property protection (SCMP) and gives Washington and Beijing the power to reimpose tariffs should the other party fall short of its commitments. Analysts have questioned whether China will be able to uphold the dramatic purchase increases pledged in the agreement.
Analysis
“This modest accord cannot disguise how the world’s most important relationship is at its most perilous juncture since before Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong re-established links five decades ago,” writes the Economist.
 
“[The deal] avoids major issues at the heart of China’s model of state capitalism, such as restraining industrial subsidies and state-owned companies, to future phases,” Shawn Donnan, Jenny Leonard, and Justin Sink write for Bloomberg.
 
CFR’s Jennifer Hillman breaks down what to look for in the “Phase One” deal.
CFR’s Election Coverage
With the first primary votes approaching, CFR helps you navigate the presidential candidates’ views on Iran, China, trade, and other pressing foreign policy issues.

Pacific Rim
Watchdog Says China Poses Global Threat to Human Rights
Human Rights Watch released its annual report with a warning that China could pose an “existential threat” to human rights worldwide and urged other countries to oppose Beijing’s actions on surveillance, detentions, and the erosion of international human rights norms.
 
In Foreign Affairs, Kristine Lee discusses how China may bring its authoritarian values to the United Nations.

South and Central Asia
Indian State Challenges Citizenship Law at Top Court
The state of Kerala filed a lawsuit (Hindustan Times) in India’s Supreme Court that claims a new citizenship law is discriminatory and violates Indians’ right to equality and freedom of religion.
 
Afghanistan, Pakistan: More than 130 people have died from flooding, avalanches, and harsh winter weather (AFP) in recent days, officials from both countries said.  

Middle East and North Africa
Lebanon’s Anti-government Protests Resume
Demonstrations against Lebanon’s ruling elite blocked (Al Jazeera) several major roads across the country after a brief lull in such protests. The demonstrations began in October and have prompted the prime minister to resign.
 
In CFR’s Strength Through Peace blog, Amir Asmar discusses how Lebanon’s protests represent the country’s shift away from its sectarian identity.
 
UAE: Abu Dhabi’s crown prince will lead a committee to oversee the development (AP) of a new capital city for Indonesia worth $34 billion, an Indonesian official said.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Sudan Army Quashes Security Service Mutiny
Sudanese forces quelled a revolt (AP) from rogue intelligence officers that left two people dead, the army chief of staff said. The revolting officers were reportedly loyal (BBC) to ousted President Omar al-Bashir.
 
Burundi: The country’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission reported it discovered more than four thousand mass graves (BBC) in its investigation into conflicts since Burundi’s 1962 independence.

Europe
Ireland Calls Snap Election
General elections will be held (FT) on February 8, Prime Minister Leo Varadkar announced.
 
European Union: The EU Commission opened a six-week consultation period with businesses and trade unions to determine the bloc’s framework for a fair minimum wage (DW).

Americas
Peru Supreme Court Approves Dissolution of Congress
The court ruled that President Martin Vizcarra’s dissolution of Congress in September over a long-standing anticorruption dispute was legal (Reuters), paving the way for legislative elections on January 26.
 
Colombia: The UN human rights commission denounced (AP) the “staggering number” of human rights activists killed in Colombia in 2019. The commission found that at least 107 were killed last year, and that murders of female activists rose almost 50 percent between 2018 and 2019.
 
In Foreign Affairs, CFR’s Paul J. Angelo writes that peace is slipping away in Colombia.

United States
Democratic Debate Covers Military Force, Trade
Candidates in the final Democratic debate before the Iowa caucuses argued in favor of restrictions on executive power (Politico) to authorize military force. Most argued that some U.S. troops should remain in Afghanistan and Iraq, while Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders said all combat troops should return home. On trade, all candidates except Sanders supported the recent agreement with Canada and Mexico.
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