Dear Friends,
Thank you for your interest in our political analysis this cycle. We are pleased the red wave never came, and as we head into 2024 we would still much rather be us than them.
A few ways of staying in touch with us in the days ahead:
Sign up for NDN’s Newsletter, bookmark our site
Follow Simon on Twitter, Post News, Mastadon
Subscribe to Simon’s YouTube Channel
Some end of year resources from NDN for your holiday political reading/listening/viewing pleasure:
Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier 2022 Election Briefing – On 12/14/22 Tom and Simon came together for their most extended discussion of the 2022 election to date. Mark Riddle of Future Majority and Tara McGowan of Courier Newsroom help guide the spirited conversation.
Memo: The Democratic Party Is Strong, Rs Remain All MAGA – This is NDN’s main post-election analysis. The bottom line - Democrats had their 3rd consecutive impressive election, and head into the 2024 cycle in strong shape. The Rs are still all MAGA all the time. We would much rather be us than them.
Front Line Reports From the Information Wars – A New Deep State Radio Podcast - Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter has made many re-evaluate the role of social media and new media. As people who work primarily in and around social and new media, David Rothkopf, Tara McGowan, and Simon talk about how Democrats need to step up and take on these challenges. How should we engage on social media? Do Progressives need to build their own media ecosystem? What can we learn from Republicans? Find out on this thought provoking conversation.
Can Republicans Come Back from the Extreme? - Guardian Politics Weekly Podcast - As 2022 draws to a close, Jonathan Freedland speaks to Simon Rosenberg and Sarah Longwell about their predictions for how US politics will shake out in 2023. Can the Democrats capitalise on a weary electorate, can the Republicans finally get rid of the spectre of Donald Trump, and who will announce their intention to run in 2024?
With Democrats Things Get Better - Our signature presentation, With Dems is a data-filled journey through American politics over the past generation. And what we learn is with Democrats things get better. With Rs, not so much. This edition was recorded on December 6th, and the core data has been updated and is fresh.
December Jobs Report - Economy Remains Strong and Dynamic, 10.5m Biden Jobs – Another strong jobs report for President Biden. 5 times as many jobs have now been created in Joe Biden's first 22 months than in Presidencies of the two Bushes and Trump combined. Repeated Dem successes, repeated GOP failures must become better known in our politics.
Democrats Did Well With Young Voters – In a new Twitter thread, Simon goes through the data that is available to us so far, and contrary to some inaccurate, red wavey reporting this week, Dems did well with young voters in 2022. It is our hope that commentators learn from the many red wave mistakes of 2022, and are more careful with their analysis in the months ahead.
One piece of our analysis which has gotten a lot of interest has been our argument about the strong performance of Dems in the battleground this year and what it means for 2024. This new CNN piece by Ron Brownstein does a good job at explaining what these strong D performances in the battlegrounds may mean for the 2024 Presidential race, and it is not good news for the Rs. Greg Sargent has an extended interview with Simon about this strong D performance and what it means for 2024 in The Washington Post, Ron Brownstein has another must read piece about all this in The Atlantic and David Lauter dives into the growing importance of Arizona and Georgia in this smart LA Times piece.
Finally, some notable mentions of NDN’s success in calling the election this year:
"There was no red wave. Few laid out such a case more forcefully and consistently than Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist, who had presented his arguments in this pre-election podcast, in interviews and on his Twitter feed. A flood of low-quality partisan surveys really did skew the polling averages to the right, as Rosenberg had asserted, while higher-quality nonpartisan polls proved to be much more accurate." - Blake Hounshell, NYT
"Rosenberg, a longtime Democratic strategist, was telling anyone who would listen that the seeming movement to Republicans in the final weeks of the race was misleading – fueled by a series of Republican-sponsored polls that moved polling averages in a more favorable direction for the GOP. He was right. Period." - Chris Cillizza, CNN, "Winners and Losers In the 2022 Election So Far"
"The only person I paid any attention to about polls is @SimonWDC who was always right." - Lawrence O'Donnell, The Last Word, MSNBC
"Let's all give some credit to @SimonWDC, who has faced relentless abuse for simply arguing all along that this election would be a competitive one, which proved prescient. Here's my interview with him way back in July, and he didn't waver off this case" - Greg Sargent, The Washington Post
"The guy who got the midterms right explains what the media got wrong" - Nicole Narea, Vox
"MAGA performance issues? No better example than the last three elections. @SimonWDC does a deep dive into the why and how the #2022Midterms turned out pretty much the way he said it would." - Former RNC Chairman Michael Steele, The Michael Steele Podcast
"Any thoughts on the polls?....Who won the Nate off? Is Simon Rosenberg our God now? I think so. Yes on Simon Rosenberg." Pod Save America, Episode 693, 59th Minute
"When all the experts were predicting a 'red wave,' one man called BS. He got the midterms right, and never backed down. On today's podcast, I ask @SimonWDC what he saw—& why he never backed down. (He also names names.) Don't miss this conversation!" - Matt Lewis, Matt Lewis Podcast
"While many analysts acknowledged that they were caught off guard by the midterm results, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg said there was evidence back in the spring that his party would overperform." - Melanie Mason, LATimes
"Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg has been saying for months that the widely predicted Republican “red wave” in the midterm elections was greatly exaggerated and that Democrats would remain competitive in races across the country.
Rosenberg, whose hypothesis was roundly rejected by pundits on both sides of the aisle, was vindicated after the shockingly lackluster GOP showing at both the state and national levels this week. Ben Samuels, Haaretz, 'Red Wave'? This Democratic Strategist Said All Along It Wasn't Coming
"If Democrats do better than expected, @SimonWDC is gonna look like a genius" - Jonathan Alter, 10/26/22
.....To a restful holiday season, and to a productive and exciting New Year!
– The NDN Team
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