for The Hill

As frigid Arctic winds sweep across Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempt to weaponize winter is being put to the test. He’d like to see Europeans shivering in the dark, calculating that a long, cold winter will crack their resolve to stand with Ukraine.

Before invading Ukraine last February, Russia was Europe’s chief supplier of natural gas. Now it’s shut down most of its pipelines, making good on Putin’s threat last fall to “freeze” Europe unless its leaders lift stringent economic sanctions on Moscow.

Spiking energy costs have already sparked street protests in several European capitals. It’s possible, however, that Putin’s call-up of “General Winter” will prove to be yet another in a long chain of miscalculations that have turned his “special military operation” into a strategic horror show for Russia.

To Moscow’s long-term detriment, European countries are buying gas elsewhere: Norway, Holland, Qatar, Nigeria and, increasingly, the United States. Despite a dearth of LNG (liquified natural gas) terminals in Europe, U.S. companies managed to nearly triple natural gas exports to the continent this year by diverting supplies destined for other parts of the world. EU countries have been filling underground storage tanks, praying for a short and mild winter.