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MDAA Alert:
Intentional Grounding
January 9, 2020

A satellite view of Ain Al Assad Airbase in Iraq on January 8, 2020 (Photo: Planet
Labs and MIIS).
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Dear Members and Friends,
a
Iran's calculated strategic way of deescalating a no win confrontation with the
United States was to send a clear demonstration of its sophisticated ballistic missiles
in volume and depth over 600 miles with precise targeting that overflew U.S. critical
assets of lives and capabilities and instead landed on intended benign and non-fatal
targets outside of and inside of two U.S. bases in Iraq. Iran flaunted its missile
invincibility to strike at will with a combination of liquid and solid fueled ballistic
missiles to specifically show its targeting capability and distance on undefended
U.S. sites in Iraq. Iran's distance and missile precision of Circular Error Probability
(CEP) of 10 meters that was displayed with these missiles and puts all U.S. bases
in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region as targetable, on notice, and at risk.
This marks the third live Iranian combat launch of ballistic missiles into Syria
and Iraq since the end of the Iraq-Iranian War. Unlike previous strikes, Iran was
quick to take immediate credit publicly and officially [[link removed]]
for the strike of its missile firings into U.S. bases in Iraq. Iran's missile testing
of a Shahab-3 in July 2019 [[link removed]]
and the use cruise missiles and unmanned drones to attack the Saudi Arabian oil
refinery in September 2019, where multiple cruise missiles and drones hit the exact
same spots, demonstrate technical prowess and evolution of its weapons of choice.

In response to the Iranian missile attack on Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops, President
Trump was clear to state in a speech at the White House, "No American or Iraqi lives
were lost because of the precautions taken, the dispersal of forces and an early
warning system that worked very well. I salute the incredible skill and courage
of America's men and women in uniform."

The U.S. shares early warning sensors and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
(ISR) data with allies in the Gulf region - especially in Iraq - that is extensive,
reliable, and proven to predict Iranian ballistic missile launches before launch
and extrapolate their intended targets once launched to provide multiple validations
of actual launch and targets, which is passed to the region and specific bases prior
to attack to provide limited time to evacuate or to find cover and safety. This
is outstanding intelligence gathering and dispersal that without any integrated
air and missile defense capability was effective and coupled with Iran's intended
demonstration of precision and intent not to kill Americans and Iraqis [[link removed]].

The early warning sensors of the Iranian missile launches would include persistent
overhead space infrared satellites, airborne sensors (manned and unmanned), as well
as land-based and sea-based sensors from the region. This information was fused
and sent to Colorado for validation and back to the Air Operations Center (AOCs)
in the region for validation and then to the bases that are targeted, with redundant
systems to supplement any break of communication. These same early warning systems
of sensors are vital to queuing active deployed missile defense systems to defend
and defeat incoming ballistic missiles at these bases and as some of these missiles
flew near GCC countries and U.S. bases that have deployed integrated air and missile
defense systems would have been well aware of these Iranian missiles. There were
no ballistic missile defenses deployed to these targeted bases in Iraq and thus
their reliance and dependence on early warning is vital for survival and safety
as it is for all U.S. bases in Iraq and Afghanistan with the constant rocket and
mortar threats.

Directly of consequence to the President and Congress is the high demand of U.S.
missile defense systems to provide defense for critical assets in the region and
that the U.S. has a finite limited capacity of manpower to operate and systems to
deploy - composed of 15 Patriot missile defense battalions and seven Terminal High
Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries that are already deployed globally to defend
critical U.S. assets in Japan, Guam, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Europe,
and with a Department of Defense Global Response Force (GRF) - there is not enough
missile defense systems and manpower to defend all of the critical U.S. assets and
it is clear we need more systems and manpower.

The Iranian strategic missile message leveraged the lack of ballistic missile defenses
and demonstrated precise salvos to oversaturate, with a 31% failure rate, and target
any U.S. base or ships under 600 miles from Iran. Compounding to this is the Iranian
use of long distance, over the horizon, and 360 degree cruise missiles and unmanned
aerial vehicles (UAVs) that were used against Saudi Arabia last September in combat.
U.S. deterrent forces located in the GCC have to address defending against all of
these Iranian missile threats in saturated raids to stand as a survivable and effective
deterrent force in this region. This real and complex missile threat scenario is
much further advanced by China and Russia and has to be addressed additionally
in the Pacific and European theaters of operations for U.S. and allied deterrent
forces in those regions. Iran has now forced the development of capabilities, existing
and new, for integrated air and missile defense that is required for the United
States and allies to have effective deterrence forces globally. Also the Iranian
missile demonstration has set a precedent and a strategy to the other bad actor
states in the world, which is that the strategic value and proliferation of missiles
is an effective tool against a superpower.

Our objective with Iran is to put them and keep them in the box of international
norms, rules & order, and abiding by international law so valuable lives and resources
are not wasted or continually added in a never ending engagement. So both American
and allies involved in this region can be focused on bigger global challenges to
their nations.

De-escalation for negotiation or intimidation for negotiation, either tactic requires
a strong effective military deterrent force that has to be defended.
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Respectfully,
Riki Ellison
Chairman and Founder
Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance
Click Here to Join MDAA [[link removed]]
MDAA is a non-profit, non-partisan tax-exempt 501(c) (4) organization. Our mission
is to make the world safer by advocating for the development and deployment of missile
defense systems to defend the United States and its allies against missile threats.
We are a membership-funded organization that does not advocate on behalf of any
specific system, technology, architecture or entity. Founded in 2002, MDAA is the
only organization in existence whose primary mission is to recruit, organize, and
mobilize proponents to advocate for the critical need of missile defense. Visit
our website www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org [[link removed]]
for more information.
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Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance
515 King Street, Suite 330
Alexandria, VA 22134
Phone: (703) 299-0060
Email: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
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