It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Gaelen Morse/Reuters

THE MOMENT IN TRUMP
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

There is a hovering political “Law of Donald Trump.” We tell ourselves that normal conventions and consequences do not apply to the former president.

But I’ve found that law to fall short. Instead, I believe in this rule of thumb: Always expect a dramatic turn.

And so it is, after hundreds of controversial tweets ([link removed]) , two impeachment trials and a two-year-long lie about his own election loss, that we find ourselves at a potentially new moment. The former president wants Americans to terminate the rules and articles of the Constitution on his behalf, as he wrote on his Truth Social ([link removed]) site over the weekend.

I reached out to every Republican leader in Congress for a response; here’s what some of them have said so far.

Rep. Steve Scalise, House's second-ranking Republican, told me ([link removed]) that he had not seen Trump’s comments about the Constitution. When I told him what the former president had written, Scalise said, “The Constitution is never subject to being waived or suspended. Obviously the Constitution's our enduring document that protects our freedoms.”

South Dakota Sen. John Thune told reporters ([link removed]) , “I swear an oath to uphold the Constitution, and it is a bedrock principle — it is the principle, the bedrock of our country. So I couldn’t disagree more.”

Florida Sen. Rick Scott was less direct, “I can tell you where I am. I believe we need to enforce all of our laws, and everybody is subject to the same laws.”

We also noticed this from an unusually upfront South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds, who gave what amounts to a rebuke from him, “Anyone who desires to lead our country must commit to protecting the Constitution. They should not threaten to terminate it.”

This raises a question: Is Trump at a tipping point? For the first time, I see evidence that it is.

But in the usual Trump fashion, it is not a conventional one.

Past cases

Trump himself has bragged that there is nothing that could dissuade his voters from supporting him. (Including if he shot someone. ([link removed]) ) Let’s consider just a few Trump political controversies that left him largely unscathed.
* The “Access Hollywood” tape. In the 2016 recording, Trump boasts about lewdly grabbing and potentially assaulting women only lowered voters' support for him by 2 percent ([link removed]) , according to a wide 2020 study.
* After former adult film actress Stormy Daniels told “60 Minutes” she and Trump had had an affair, the public believed her. But Trump’s approval rating barely changed ([link removed]) .
* As president, Trump’s family separation policy was overwhelmingly unpopular in polls ([link removed]) . But his approval rating again was barely scratched ([link removed]) .
* His tweeting record is overwhelming, but to name two: Trump suggested a 75-year-old protester injured by police was a setup ([link removed]) . He questioned ([link removed]) the estimated death toll ([link removed]) in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Maria. In those cases, many Republicans told reporters they had not seen his tweets
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Trump’s approval ratings did drop ([link removed]) during his first year as president. But I have always winced at using approval ratings to capture voters’ support of Trump. To me, it is a bit like asking someone, “Do you approve of a deep-fried Twinkie?” Lots of folks may say no. But, if given the chance, heck yeah, a lot of them still want to take a bite.

Sure enough, in 2020, more than 74 million Americans ([link removed]) dug in for Trump. Whether they approved or not, they wanted him to be president.

They knew the drawbacks. But for those voters, Trump’s appeal and their hopes were worth it.

Why voters’ support for Trump may be shifting

We need more data, but there are indications that support for Trump is slowly beginning to decline. Not the typical drama you might expect of a showman, which is part of my consideration here. Trump, when bold, appealed to his voters. Trump, irrelevant and fighting for attention, potentially less so.

Polls show a trend ([link removed]) . Trump is slipping among Republicans.
* For the first 10 months of this year, former President Trump outmatched Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in every high-quality Republican primary poll. (Looking at polls graded “B” or above by FiveThirtyEight.)
* But in November, DeSantis pulled ahead in five out of roughly a dozen national polls.

What could be driving this?
* The midterm election. Voters roundly rejected nearly every election denier on the ballot, nearly costing Republicans a majority in the U.S. House. And Trump’s endorsements arguably did cost Republicans the Senate.
* Trump’s incessant reiteration of election fraud claims. That argument may be growing stale for his supporters.
* Voter exhaustion from Trump’s high intensity and provocations themselves.
* DeSantis’ rising popularity, including his handling of Hurricane Ian ([link removed]) .


It is the cumulative effect of these things, on top of years of negative headlines, that seems to be moving some needles.

Trump’s call for ‘termination’ of Constitution

This brings us to Trump’s recent “termination” remark. He wrote on Truth Social, “A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution.”

The former president later insisted he never said the Constitution itself should be terminated ([link removed]) . This is semantic.

However you parse it, the attack on rules, regulations and articles — even those found in the Constitution — comes at a politically vulnerable time for Trump. And it’s relevant, too, that his base is devoted particularly to the rule of law and the U.S. Constitution.

It is a challenge for his allies to work out — and a very real opportunity for his potential Republican opponents.

Now, could he stay in the mix, get on a debate stage in just over a year and win back his momentum? Yes.

Is that looking increasingly difficult? Yes.

THE STAKES FOR GEORGIA

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Watch the segment in the player above.

By Laura Barrón-López, @LBarronLopez ([link removed])
White House Correspondent

Georgians will vote in their second runoff election ([link removed]) in two years today, but with some notable changes ([link removed]) .

Republicans last year passed a restrictive voting law that cut the runoff calendar in half, shortened early-vote times, reduced the number of ballot drop boxes, and placed limitations on voting by mail.

Two data points worth noting before we dive in:
* Georgia’s general election runoff system was formed at the urging of a 1960s segregationist who sought to suppress Black voters. We explored the racist history behind the system here ([link removed]) .
* This is the first time in history two Black men have gone head-to-head for a Senate seat.


Tuesday will close out the fourth election in which Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock has asked Georgians to send him to the Senate — this time for a full six-year term. Neither Warnock nor his opponent, Republican Herschel Walker, secured 50 percent of the vote in the November election, forcing a runoff ([link removed]) . Walker, an election denier endorsed by Trump, has faced multiple allegations of domestic abuse — onewoman ([link removed]) came forward, on record ([link removed]) , in the final days of the campaign. Two women accused Walker of pressuring them to get abortions and of paying for them. CNN first reported
([link removed]) during the runoff that Walker continues to claim his Texas home as his primary residence and is poised to receive a $1,500 tax break for 2022.

Loyal Republican voters have dismissed Walker’s scandals, saying they want a senator who will vote against President Joe Biden’s agenda. Warnock, meanwhile, is trying to boost Democratic turnout among key parts of the base and win over disaffected moderate Republicans.

Though Senate control is in Democratic hands, Georgians’ decision will have lasting ramifications for the Senate and future elections. Depending on the outcome of the runoff, here’s what to expect:
* If Warnock wins: Democrats will have a 51-50 Senate majority, which means they’ll have majorities on committees. That translates to subpoena power to conduct investigations — a tool Democratic senators would love to have, especially as a GOP-controlled House launches its own probes of the Biden administration. It also means Georgia will have two Democratic senators until at least 2026, when Sen. Jon Ossoff is up for reelection. More Democratic senators are up for reelection in 2024, and keeping Georgia blue slightly improves their chances of maintaining Senate control.
* If Walker wins: The Senate will again be 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking 51st vote. That means committees remain split and Democrats are denied subpoena power. Though many Trump-endorsed, election-denying candidates lost in key swing states, a Walker win would be a big victory for the former president, who repeatedly lies about the outcome of the 2020 election.

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#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Tess Conciatori, @tkconch ([link removed])
White House Producer

Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker is best known in Georgia for winning the 1982 Heisman Trophy in college football while at the University of Georgia and his career as a running back in the NFL.

But Walker also tried his hand at another sport professionally, representing the United States at the 1992 Olympics.

Our question: What sport did Walker compete in at the 1992 Games?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Who was the first Black woman to be elected to the Senate? And which state did she represent?

The answer: Carol Moseley Braun ([link removed]) . The former senator represented the state of Illinois for one term, from 1993 to 1999.

Congratulations to our winners: Bob Sudela and Mary Angeliu!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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