Soleimani's Demise and the Future of U.S. Policy in the Middle East

With the death of Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. airstrike ordered by President Trump this past Friday morning, tensions between Iran and the U.S. have been heightened to levels not seen since the Iran hostage crisis in 1979. After months of unrest in the region, regime crackdowns on protesters in Iran, and attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Iraq, Iran has been held to account—for now.

Writing in the New York Times [[link removed]], Mike Doran breaks down the strategic significance of Soleimani's death and what U.S. policymakers' next steps should be to seize on the momentum:

"More than any other American military operation since the invasion of Iraq, the assassination yesterday of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the head of Iran’s Qods Force of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, is a seismic event. The killings of Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leaders of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, were certainly meaningful, but they were also largely symbolic, because their organizations had been mostly destroyed. Taking out the architect of the Islamic Republic’s decades-long active campaign of violence against the United States and its allies, especially Israel, represents a tectonic shift in Middle Eastern politics."

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"The United States has no choice, if it seeks to stay in the Middle East, but to check Iran’s military power on the ground. For a president elected on a platform of peace and prosperity, confronting Iran was not an easy decision to make. Mr. Trump would undoubtedly prefer to be negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program rather than ordering the assassination of its most famous general. But the president realized that securing America’s regional position required a strong and visible response to Mr. Suleimani’s escalations."

On CSPAN's Washington Journal [[link removed]], Blaise Misztal discusses how the decision to eliminate Soleimani connects with broader U.S. strategy and national interest:

"This attack shook the Iranian establishment and challenged their assumptions" about U.S. resolve.

On BBC World News [[link removed]], Mike Pregent discusses the ramifications of Soleimani’s death and the influence he wielded in Iraq:

This airstrike "gives Iraq a chance to push back against Iran."

Hudson Highlights

In an end-of-year interview, Rebeccah Heinrichs discusses the future of U.S. foreign policy on PBS [[link removed]].

Tom Duesterberg examines if the U.S. will be able to avoid collateral damage in its 5G battle with China in Forbes Magazine [[link removed]].

In Mosaic Magazine [[link removed]], Arthur Herman argues it's time for a "Common Market" in defense trade.

Patrick Cronin anticipates Southeast Asia will go its own way in the growing battle for dominance between the U.S. and China in ASEAN Focus [[link removed]].

Walter Russell Meade focuses on the implications of the Tory landslide victory in the U.K.'s December election in the Wall Street Journal [[link removed]].

Chris Demuth revives Michael Uhlmann's legacy in defending the Electoral College in National Affairs [[link removed]].

New Season of The Realignment

On Tuesday, January 21, join Marshall and Saagar for the launch of a new season of The Realignment. They will host authors Michael Lind and J.D. Vance for a live taping to discuss Lind's new book, The New Class War, which argues that working-class citizens must have greater political participation for western democratic nations to survive. Click here [[link removed]] to register for the live taping event and pre-taping reception.

We wrapped up Season 1 of The Realignment last month with U.S. Rep. Mike Gallagher and a bonus episode on the Afghanistan papers. While you wait for the next season to kick-off, catch up on any episodes you missed from Season 1.

Commentary

China

In the New York Times [[link removed]], Michael Pillsbury offered his thoughts on the latest developments in the ongoing trade talks with China:

"Michael Pillsbury, a China scholar at the Hudson Institute who advises the Trump administration, said translating the text of the agreement had been complicated because the United States wanted to ensure that the commitments were legally binding rather than just statements of what China’s intended."

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“'We’re entering a period now, before the signing, to see if it really gets locked in or they renege again,' Mr. Pillsbury said, suggesting that Mr. Trump publicized the date of the ceremony on Twitter to put additional pressure on China."

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"Mr. Pillsbury suggested, however, that Mr. Trump believed his relationship with Mr. Xi would be a political asset in 2020 as he made the case to voters that he had rebalanced America’s relationship with China."

Nina Shea discusses the continued forced detention of Uyhgur Muslims by the Chinese Communist Party in Geopolitical Monitor [[link removed]]:

"[W]hat is going on right now 'is one of worst human rights and religious persecution situations of our day, in fact of our age. It is both a crisis of religious persecution and of human rights violations of epic proportions.'”

North Korea

On CNN's Situation Room [[link removed]], Patrick Cronin discusses North Korea's latest threats and the ongoing talks between Kim and Trump.

Rebeccah Heinrichs discusses potential U.S. policy towards North Korea in 2020 in VOA News [[link removed]] :

"'From no angle - policy or political - does it make sense for Trump to keep things as they are,' said Rebecca Heinrichs, who focuses on nuclear deterrence and missile defense at the conservative Hudson Institute."

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"'In the course of giving Kim diplomatic space, sanctions enforcement and readiness with regional allies have slipped while Kim's nuclear program and image have improved,' she says."

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Whereas Trump's comments about Kim have been widely mocked in Washington for being contradictory or inaccurate, Heinrichs sees it differently. Such comments, she says, are an attempt to flatter Kim - essentially to soften him up for a big agreement. And Trump's approach, she says, could easily be reversed."

Scholarship

John Lee published a report examining China's economic slowdown and the strategic implications of a weakened Chinese economy for U.S. policy. As the Chinese Communist Party increasingly seeks to rely on deception to boost its dominance globally, Lee sheds light on the realities in Beijing.

You can read the full report here [[link removed]] and his Op-Ed on this topic in the Wall Street Journal [[link removed]].

Hank Cardello released a new report entitled Driving Growth and Innovation in the Food Industry: Lessons from the Automobile Industry’s CAFE Standards.

Highlighting the automobile industry as a model for change, the report suggests ways the food industry can contribute to making American's healthier.

You can read the full report here [[link removed]].

Satoru Nagao published his work on Strategies for the Indo-Pacific: Perceptions of the U.S. and Like-Minded Countries in a new report.

This report presents the perspective of key allies and strategies the U.S. can deploy as it seeks to counter China's growing threat.

You can read the full report here [[link removed]].

In Case You Missed It

Event: China's Human Rights Abuses in Xinjiang and the U.S. Response [[link removed]]

Event: The Role of Global Standards in the Battle for 5G Leadership [[link removed]]

Read: Seth Cropsey on the U.S. presence in the Middle East in Foreign Policy [[link removed]]

Read: Rebeccah Heinrichs [[link removed]]argues that the U.S. should put post-INF missiles into production in Defense One [[link removed]]

Read: Tom Duesterberg on U.S. manufacturing in Aspenia Online [[link removed]]

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