The administration is projecting that 9,000 to 14,000 migrants may attempt to cross the U.S. southern border a day once the policy ends. In a worst-case scenario, DHS estimates the number could reach 19,000 migrants attempting to cross the border.  

These numbers, though predictive, are possible since many individuals who were previously turned away under Title 42 may attempt to cross again. Encounters at the border have also already increased. (See our resource for border solutions beyond Title 42 here.) 

Meanwhile, Eileen Sullivan and Michael D. Shear of The New York Times report that the administration is still considering replacing Title 42 with a policy that would severely restrict the number of migrants who could apply for asylum in the U.S. 

If adopted, the policy closely resembles — and expands upon — Trump’s transit ban, which bars asylum claims from people who transited through a third country on their way to the U.S. 

"For the Biden administration to resurrect that horrific policy would be playing into Stephen Miller’s hands," said Eleanor Acer, the director for refugee protection at Human Rights First. "It’s almost like Stephen Miller is still in the White House trying to block from asylum people seeking protection from persecution." 

While the approach isn’t yet set in stone, as we noted earlier this week, leaning hard on enforcement and deterrence would only benefit smugglers and cartels. 

Congress has an opportunity to pass better border solutions in unison with other urgent immigration reforms. Americans, including 70% of conservatives, want border and immigration solutions passed this year.  

Welcome to Friday’s edition of The Forum Daily. I’m Clara Villatoro, the Forum’s strategic communications manager. If you have a story to share from your own community, please send it to me at cvillatoro@immigrationforum.org.  

COMPELLED BY FAITH — Faith groups will continue to welcome and support immigrants and asylum seekers with compassion, even if Congress fails to pass immigration policies and reforms, according to executive director of Hope Border Institute Dylan Corbett. "The vast majority of hospitality is led by faith communities. Faith communities have proven that we can draw on our narratives and draw on our traditions to show what can be," Corbett told Baptist News Global’s Jeff Brumley. "We don’t have to buy in to the lie that we have to be afraid of migrants." For more on faith, community and finding common ground in a way that bridges differences, read this Chronicle of Philanthropy piece from leaders of four major civic institutions. 

WORKFORCE MODEL — Canada is leading the race for closing the workforce gap through immigration, reports James McCarten of The Canadian Press. "Immigration is the single factor driving economic growth, and the market right now is calling for more immigration to meet labor market needs," said Jack Jedwab, president of the Association for Canadian Studies. In 2022, Canada already hit a record of over 405,000 new permanent residents. Recently, the government announced the Canadian federal immigration plan, which aims to admit 465,000 new permanent residents in 2023 and 500,000 a year by 2025, with a particular focus on people with needed skills and experience. "That’s not the discourse in the United States — not to the same degree," Jedwab said. 

VENEZUELAN AID — The United Nations will seek $1.72 billion to aid Venezuelan refugees and migrants in Latin America and the Caribbean next year, reports Elida Moreno of Reuters. To achieve this, it will partner with more than 200 organizations "to offer humanitarian services to more than 3 million Venezuelans and support local governments that are stretched thin," notes Moreno. Over 7 million people have fled Venezuela in recent years due to economic and political strife, with most scattered in neighboring countries like Colombia, Peru and others. "Many [Venezuelans] have seen their lives come to a standstill," said Eduardo Stein, a joint representative of the UN Refugee Agency and the International Organization for Migration for Venezuelan refugees and migrants. 

MARTHA’S VINEYARD LAWSUIT — The lawsuit over migrants flown to Martha’s Vineyard now names three additional people, reports Laura Ly of CNN. They are Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) chief of staff, James Uthmeier; "public safety czar" Larry Keefe; and the woman known as the lead migrant recruiter, Perla Huerta. The lawsuit alleges Keefe and Uthmeier "hatched a scheme of their own to send immigrants to the northeast United States and profit from ensuing media coverage." On the other side of the Mexican border, Venezuelan migrants who have been returned from the U.S. are sleeping in the streets after local police evicted them from the camp they set up in October, reports Julian Resendiz of Border Report. When the eviction took place, Juarez authorities said migrants would be sent to shelters, but some of them refuse to stay there as they distrust Mexican authorities, Resendiz notes.  

HAITIAN MIGRANTS — A group of 17 House Democrats is urging the Biden administration to extend and redesignate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitians already in the U.S., reports Rafael Bernal of The Hill. "Haiti is currently experiencing one of its worst outbreaks of violence in decades. The rule of law has effectively collapsed. Powerful gangs rule with impunity, and in some cases with government complicity," wrote the lawmakers in the letter. Separately, Jim McCarthy of Keys Weekly reports on the deportation of over 180 Haitian migrants who arrived in the Florida Keys on a 50-foot sailboat. During fiscal year 2022, the Coast Guard reported encountering 7,175 migrants at sea.  

Thanks for reading, 

Clara 

P.S. Sports can help people bond: After a harsh journey to the U.S. from Venezuela, 38-year-old immigrant amputee Juan Vargas has found comfort in a soccer club on Long Island, reports Camilo Montoya-Galvez of CBS News. "The American dream was created a long time ago," Vargas said. "But you have to work for it to make it yours." A very inspiring story.