Iran Threatens Retaliation

Iranian officials issued calls for attacks in response to the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, raising the risk of a direct confrontation between U.S. and Iranian forces and prompting the U.S. to take steps to protect its troops in the Middle East, as the WSJ’s Aresu Eqbali, Alex Leary, and Jared Malsin report.

Dive Deeper: “Containing Tehran: Understanding Iran’s Power and Exploiting Its Vulnerabilities,” by CSIS’s Seth Jones.

“Who Is Esmail Qaani, the New Chief Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?” by the Washington Institute’s Ali Alfoneh.

“Does the U.S. Strike on Soleimani Break Legal Norms?” by CFR’s John Bellinger III.

Imminent Threat

Defense Secretary Mark Esper said today the United States wants to de-escalate tensions with Iran, but the country is ready to finish any war that could be started, as Reuters reports.

And, in an appearance on Tuesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not provide any new details on what prompted the killing of General Suleimani. But he said that Iran posed a threat to American lives, as the NYT reports.

Europeans Shift Troops From Iraq

U.S. allies said Tuesday that they were reducing and repositioning troops inside Iraq amid fears that Iran will retaliate for the killing of Soleimani, and some European diplomats expressed fears that the shifting of troops would diminish their ability to fight the Islamic State, as the Washington Post’s Michael Birnbaum and Rick Noack report.

CSIS Executive Education

Join CSIS March 11-13 for our course, Belt, Road, and Beyond. Work with leading experts and the Reconnecting Asia Project to explore what the BRI is, what it is not, and how it is impacting commercial and strategic realities on the ground.

Video Shorts

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In That Number

4,200

More than 4,200 protests against the Iranian government took place across nearly every province of the country between January 2018 and October 2019.

Source: CSIS, “Containing Tehran: Understanding Iran’s Power and Exploiting Its Vulnerabilities”

Critical Quote

“We are not looking to start a war with Iran, but we are prepared to finish one.”

— Defense Secretary Mark Esper

iDeas Lab

CSIS's Missile Threat microsite analyzes Iran's missile arsenal and capabilities.

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.

Optics

(Photo credit: Win McNamee/Getty Images). Secretary of State Mike Pompeo today at the State Department.

This Town Tomorrow

At 9:30 a.m., CSIS will hold a discussion with Thane Gustafson, a professor of government at Georgetown University and a senior director at IHS Markit, for a discussion on his new book, The Bridge: Natural Gas in a Redivided Europe.

Later, at 2:00 p.m., CSIS will host four scholars to examine Japan’s leadership role in international and regional institutions and avenues for U.S.-Japan cooperation in the future.

Video

CSIS today hosted the second annual Ocean Security Forum, which explored two themes: human rights violations in the seafood supply chain and China's maritime silk road. Watch the full event here.

Podcasts

In this episode, the Trade Guys kick off 2020 by looking ahead at what will happen this year in trade, from the European Union to Brexit and China. They also discuss Senator Elizabeth Warren's endorsement of the USMCA.

Listen on Spotify & Apple Podcasts.

Smiles

Over the holidays I finally saw the David Crosby documentary “Remember My Name,” by filmmaker Cameron Crowe. It’s an extraordinary film, heartbreaking at times but ultimately about Croz’s survival and continuing relevance. Since 2014, Croz has released four stellar albums—most recently 2018’s “Here If You Listen.” It’s astonishing how well preserved his voice is and his new songs are among the best he’s ever recorded as a solo artist, like this track “Glory” from the 2018 record.

Even better, just yesterday, at 78, Croz launched a new podcast “Freak Flag Flying” in conversation with the great writer Steve Silberman. I highly recommend it.

I invite you to email me at [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz

The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Emma Colbran, Caleb Diamond, and Brad Honigberg.