There are roughly 42 weeks from the end of December to the early voting period of the 2020 election. In December Republican registrations in Florida, relative to Democrat registrations, improved by 6,671 registrations. The Republican deficit now stands at 226,715. Great news! Republican registrations relative to Democrat registrations are at their best level in at least the last few election cycles. Hopefully the last few months are the start of a long-term trend. Voter registration information is reported in the attached chart, and in Table 1 and Table 2.
In the impeachment of President Trump, three Democrat congressmen were in the limelight; Speaker of the House Pelosi (California's 12th Congressional District), Chairman Schiff of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (California's 28th Congressional District), and Chairman Nadler of the House Judiciary Committee (New York's 10th Congressional District).
Housing plays a significant role in the political orientation of electorates. It is instructive to look at the homeownership rate (the higher the rate, generally the higher the Republican market share) and the median home price (the lower the median home price, generally the higher the Republican market share) in the districts of the three members of congress mentioned in the previous paragraph. The following median home price and homeownership rate information was taken from the Census Bureau's My Congressional District website and the vote totals were taken from Wikipedia.
* California's 12th Congressional District-Median Home Price-$1,211,300, Homeownership Rate-34.9%, Pelosi's 2018 vote percentage versus her opponent: 86.8% to 13.2%
* California's 28th Congressional District-Median Home Price-$896,000, Homeownership Rate-34.5%, Schiff's 2018 vote percentage versus his opponent; 78.4% to 21.6%
* New York's Tenth Congressional District-Median Home Price-$1,015,100, Homeownership Rate-33.4%, Nadler's 2018 vote percentage vs his opponent; 82.1% to 17.9%
These three districts are feudal in nature as there is a minority of a well-to-do propertied class and a majority of a class which is non-propertied and less affluent. The non-propertied people generally align themselves with Democrats. Pelosi, Schiff, and Nadler may act as they do without political repercussions in their districts owing to homeowners being a super minority in their districts.
For reference, the housing related values for the 27 Florida Congressional Districts are listed in Table 3 of the attachment.
* Those Florida congressional districts represented by Democrat congressmen have an average median home price of $265,769 which is 22.5% greater than the average median home price of $216,979 for the districts represented by Republican congressmen.
* Those Florida districts with Republican congressional representatives have an average homeownership rate of 71.8% which is 22.5% greater than the average homeownership rate of 58.6% for those Florida congressional districts with Democrat congressmen.
It has been a decades-old Leftist objective to compromise real estate markets in the pursuit of growing Democrat market share. The Leftist effort has been focused on our large population centers. Their success is perhaps best highlighted by which party carried the vote in our country's 146 most populous counties, which are a unique subset of counties, owing to the fact that these 146 counties are home to half our country's population. Roughly 3000 counties are home to the other half of our country's population.
* In 1988 Republican President George H.W. Bush won the majority of the vote in three of every five of these 146 most populous counties
* In 2016 Democrat Presidential Candidate Hilary Clinton
- won the majority of the vote in four of every five of these 146 most populous counties
- increased the Democrat margin by 3.1 million votes from 2012 levels in these 146 counties demonstrating continued Democrat market share gains post President Obama
Based on the 2016 elections, the collapse in the numbers of modestly priced starter homes being produced nationwide, and the numbers of rental units being built, the Republican loss of market share in these 146 counties will likely continue.
Strategically, RECs and Republican officeholders should monitor the number and mix (rental permits versus permits for owner-occupied housing) of building permits to facilitate positive change in the political orientation of their counties instead of waiting for the much less timely voter registration numbers.
Keep in mind that the nomenclature concerning housing is purposely confusing. The Left champions what they refer to as affordable housing and the term has made its way into law. Affordable housing in this usage is subsidized rental housing (subsidies may be for the tenants and/or the creation of the properties). To increase Republican market share, Republicans should be continuously promoting policies that result in higher homeownership rates.
Best Wishes for the New Year,
Steve Meyer, Indian River County REC Member
Contact Information:
Steve Meyer
Phone or text: 772-713-8265
