Top Lines: 2020 Elections | Tariffs and Trade | US Economy | Immigration and the Border | Protecting US Elections | Patriotism & Optimism

Notes On 2020 – As we head into a very intense period on the Democratic side, former VP Joe Biden enters this stretch in the best shape of all the Democratic candidates. He has a 10 pt lead nationally, is essentially tied in IA and NH, and has commanding leads in NV and SC. He has started to rack up significant endorsements, and as we saw with Iowa freshman Rep. Abby Finkenauer campaigning by his side in Iowa this past weekend, he is using them well. While things can and will change, the advantage right now appears to be with Biden. Let’s review the upcoming schedule:

Jan 14 – Dem Debate in Iowa

Feb 3 – Iowa Caucus

Feb 7 – Dem Debate in NH

Feb 11 – NH Primary

Feb 19 – Dem Debate in NV

Feb 22 – NV Caucus

Feb 25 – Dem Debate in SC

Feb 29 – SC Primary

March 3 – AL, AR, CA, CO, MA, ME, MN, NC, OK, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA

March 10 – ID, MI, MO, ND, WA

Whoa….yes, this is going to be an intense next two months, all with the backdrop of great volatility in the Middle East, an Impeachment trial, more Trump associates being sentenced to jail and on trial, and the roll out of the President’s budget and legislative agenda. We offered our thoughts on Iran and Impeachment yesterday in this new analysis – the bottom line is that we think McConnell’s hand is much weaker than conventional wisdom holds right now, and all of this is far more likely to break against Trump than for him.

Undergirding our belief that the President is in deep trouble politically is that his standing with the public remains historically low for a President at this point in their first term, particularly given how much money he and his allies have spent and how powerful his day to day noise machine remains. 538 has a good new piece out this morning showing just unpopular Trump is - his job approval remains below -10, landslide territory; he is underwater on Impeachment/removal; his standing in the 2020 battlegrounds is far weaker than conventional wisdom holds right now; the Congressional generic is plus 6-7 for the Democrats and the Senate has become a true toss up; and when Trump actually led his troops into battle in 2017, 2018, and 2019, Republicans ended up with near worst case electoral outcomes each time.

A simple stat to consider – using 538’s tracker, the President’s job approval on election night 2018 when Rs lost the national vote by 8.6 points was -10.4. Today it is -11.2. Which means that the basic structure of the race, the bones, still remains about where it was in 2018, which was a wipeout, or 2019, which saw Rs lose KY and LA and the GA governor reject Trump’s choice to fill an empty US Senate seat.

Congress Must Have A Robust Post-USMCA Trade Agenda - Congress should be pleased with the soon-to-be successful passage of the USMCA, a deal that is quite limited in scope and impact but does achieve some real advances in modernizing digital trade, reducing agricultural tariffs, and improving enforcement of labor protections. However, it is critical that Congress doesn't wash its hand of trade policy now that the USMCA debate is over, because the President's larger, destructive trade strategy continues to erode the global rules-based trade system. Over the past two years, Trump has an undertaken an unprecedented experiment with protectionism, hoping to rejuvenate US manufacturing and broader jobs and growth. Instead, manufacturing has been driven into a deep recession while hundreds of thousands of jobs and tens of billions of dollars in total income growth have been destroyed. It is time now that Congress finally step up to challenge this failed experiment.

First, Congress must end the trade conflicts that even in the best case scenario don't serve any purpose, are largely targeted at US allies, and are done merely to harm the global trading system. The most important of these is to re-open the WTO's dispute resolution court, which was effectively shut down when the Trump administration refused to appoint new judges to fill open seats. With the dispute process closed, there is no legal way for countries to appeal protectionist measures taken against them, a process that has benefited the US significantly over past decades (indeed, the US has won 11 disputes against China, compared to China winning only 4 against the US) and whose dismantling serves no US interest whatsoever. Congress must also once and for all repeal Trump's tariffs on key US allies who are not committing trade abuses, particularly the steel and aluminum tariffs and threatened auto tariffs on Japan and the EU. These tariffs serve only to weaken jobs and income growth both in the US and abroad, and have no strategic goal because our allies aren't committing any trade abuses that would justify them.

Second, Congress must develop a coherent strategy to address the more difficult trade problems facing the country. The most prominent of these is dealing with China, a country that systemically commits trade abuses but whose "phase one" deal with Trump contains no details about addressing them. The President's unilateral trade war with China has not created the leverage to force them to actually pursue structural reforms in their economy, while significantly harming the US economy in the process. Instead, Congress must begin crafting a multilateral strategy that works alongside our trading partners and allies and offers benefits to China if it commits to genuine liberalization. You can read more about NDN's analysis of the economic costs of Trump's trade war here, and find NDN's broader work on trade and economic policy under the Trump administration here.

Best,

Simon, Chris, and the rest of the NDN team



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