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**NOVEMBER 21, 2022**
Kuttner on TAP
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**** The Democrats' Generational Change
The 80-year-olds are retiring-with one notable exception.
House Democratic leaders, prodded by a narrow election loss, are turning
the top offices over to the youngest leadership team in many decades. In
a carefully choreographed transition set for November 30 with no
contested elections, Hakeem Jeffries of New York, 52, will become
Democratic leader; Katherine Clark of Massachusetts, 59, becomes whip;
and Pete Aguilar of California, 43, becomes caucus chair.
They will succeed Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 82; Majority Leader Steny Hoyer,
83; and Whip James Clyburn, 82. It is the most extreme such generational
transition ever. The average age gap is more than 30 years.
Jeffries will become the youngest Democratic leader in the House since
Charles Frederick Crisp of Georgia was elected to the post in 1891, at
age 46. Jeffries could remain minority leader or Speaker for at least 20
years.
The octogenarian still very much in office, of course, is Joe Biden, who
turned 80 Sunday. And the case for his retirement has just grown both
weaker and stronger.
It is weaker than it was before November 8, because Biden, despite his
underwater approval ratings, managed to work miracles with a minuscule
majority in Congress. And he beat the widely predicted midterm blowout.
Given all the challenges he faced, his improbable successes, and the
immense stakes, historians could well remember Biden as a great or
near-great president.
But that same election produced some possible candidates who could be
far more dynamic and galvanizing for Democrats in 2024 than Biden at age
82. The most interesting of these is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, 51.
She won a double-digit re-election victory and took with her the first
Michigan Democratic House/Senate/governor trifecta in 40 years. Whitmer
would bring substantial executive experience, and she would likely do
well in other Midwestern swing states.
Biden is more likely to be remembered well if he steps aside after one
successful term rather than risking repudiation at the polls. Though
Biden, for now, insists he is running in 2024, sometime next spring
before the election cycle begins in earnest, he will need to do some
hard thinking and take soundings.
He will consult his own inner circle, his wife, and key legislative
leaders whom he has known for decades. If they are honest, most will
advise Biden that he has been a great president and that it's time for
the next generation.
But Biden will make up his own mind. And if he runs, his party will have
no choice but to unite behind him. His decision will be fateful. For the
Democrats to take back the House and hold the Senate, the 2024 nominee
needs to win big and have coattails. In 2020, Biden had none.
In the meantime, the new House leadership, despite the nominal unity
slate, has work to do. Progressives are not enamored of Hakeem Jeffries.
Despite his membership in the Congressional Progressive Caucus, at times
he has seemed more of a corporate Democrat
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than one of them, having created a PAC with Josh Gottheimer.
There is also a lot of bad feeling in the caucus about the way this was
managed by Pelosi and Hoyer. All other members considering running for
leadership posts were told to step aside. Pelosi even sent out a message
congratulating the three designees
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election next week.
The DCCC, whose next chair is yet to be determined, also cries out for
reform. All too fittingly, the current chair, Sean Maloney of New York,
lost his own seat. Progressives want the DCCC chair to be elected by the
caucus, not appointed by the leadership. That process has yet to be
determined, but that small reform would be a smart Jeffries gesture to
his critics.
The DCCC, in this cycle, failed to support insurgent Democrats and
disproportionately spent on incumbents. Worse, it used the same tired
formulas of spending heavily on consultants and TV ads, and far too
little on grassroots voter mobilization.
To win in 2024, the Democrats' change needs to be more than
generational.
~ ROBERT KUTTNER
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