BEST FOR BRITAIN'S
WEEKEND WIRE

Dear John 

This week, the Prime Minister jetted off to Bali for the G20 Summit and stuck us at home to be minded by his bullying deputy with £10 for pizza and a £50 billion budget shortfall. Let’s see if they’ve managed to keep the place from going ablaze this week.

Fiscal sledgehammer

After two Prime Ministers and three reschedulings, the Chancellor finally unveiled–or, better, unleashed–the medium-term fiscal statement on Thursday. Early on in his remarks, Jeremy Hunt made it official: the UK is in recession.

Nevertheless, having investigated themselves, the Tories’ verdict on the economy was clear: the former guys really mucked it up, and the same guys are here to fix it, to the tune of £30 billion in cuts and £24 billion in tax hikes. 

First on the chopping block was the 0.7% of GDP international aid commitment, which will now not be met through to 2028 rather than 2024 as promised by Rishi Sunak last year. Energy relief will also be means-tested from April.

Despite Hunt’s repeated self-congratulatory references to his budget’s “compassion”, most of their carefully-nurtured spending rises will not keep pace with the Tories’ other baby: record inflation. Citizens can expect higher Council Tax, public sector workers face a real-terms pay cut, and schools and the NHS have been allocated a pittance of an increase that will be wiped out by inflation. 

The pound tumbled in the wake of Hunt’s announcement. Is it Groundhog Day?

Take the survey, tell us what you thought of the Budget here.

Raabed of good government

The Sunak Cabinet is increasingly looking like the b-cast of Mean Girls as hot on the heels of Gavin Williamson’s resignation, fresh allegations of abusive work culture landed on the shiny head of deputy PM Dominic Raab.

Over the weekend, reports that he had left staff in tears and that he eventually was barred from meeting with junior employees without a third party present began emerging. After initially denying them, Raab confirmed on Wednesday that not only had two formal complaints been lodged against him, but also that he was happy for a Downing Street inquiry into the matter. 

Worth mentioning at this point that it’s been more than 150 days since the resignation of the last No 10 independent advisor on standards.

We know what the Don’t Knows don’t want us to know

All this government gloom, though, should be considered alongside our polling data which rings a note of caution for Labour and the other opposition parties.

Best for Britain commissioned a massive poll of 10,000 people which just happened to go into the field to collect responses on the day Liz Truss resigned as PM. So we had an opportunity to see how Sunak’s elevation to No.10 affected public opinion - we did a second, smaller, poll of 2,000 people to see what changed.

The key takeaway was that Labour’s support stayed steady from one poll to the next. But 13% of the first poll answered ‘Don’t know’, which is really high, and the second poll showed a shift of ‘Don’t knows’ to the Tories.

It turns out when you ask the people who say they don’t know who they will vote for whether they’re leaning towards any of the parties, double the number say they lean Conservative than Labour. And 85% of them say they definitely plan to vote.

You can read our brand new analysis of who all these ‘Don’t knows’ are, and how they are likely to vote on our website. And make sure whenever you see polls about voting intention you check the size of the ‘Don’t know’ column.

G20 goings-on

The second major international summit of Sunak’s less-than-a-month-old premiership in Bali saw him cosying up to his host, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, and extending a reciprocal invite to London. 

The summit was marked by increased tension over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with delicate manoeuvring by Indian and Indonesian leaders who make up the BRIICS consortium, as the war isolates Putin from his friendlier faces in the international community.

Most notably, Sunak struck a friendlier tone toward Chinese leader Xi Jinping, pledging further cooperation. A planned meeting between the two was cancelled following the tension flare-up after a missile struck Poland with immediate suspicion falling on Russia.

My Defra Secretary Went to Australia and All I Got Was This Lousy Trade Deal

On Monday evening, sound of mind and bafflingly clear of conscience, former Defra secretary George Eustice casually mentioned that the UK-Australia trade deal he negotiated was “not actually a very good deal” for the UK. 

The bulk of the blame, according to Eustice, lies not with himself or with the then-international trade secretary, Liz Truss, but with the civil service, specifically the DfIT’s interim permanent secretary.

Questions of misleading the House and why he didn’t sound the alarm, say, two years ago, aside, Eustice’s comments elicited an eye-roll of a statement from the DfIT, who noted that he felt the deal was favourable enough to the UK to approve at the time.

Russia comes to Poland

On Tuesday night, a missile crashed in a Polish town near the Ukrainian border, killing two people. Coming amidst a sustained campaign of Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilians, this tragic incident set off widespread concern about an attack on a NATO member leading to major escalation beyond Russia and Ukraine.

On Wednesday, following a night of consternation at the G20 summit in Bali, reports emerged the missile may have been wayward defence ordnance launched by Ukraine to intercept Russia’s bombardment. 

While the announcement tempered fears of further escalation, leaders across Europe and beyond unequivocally blamed the continued Russian incursion into Ukraine for the loss of life in Poland.

Come for the Brexit, stay for the austerity

It looks like the anti-growth coalition isn’t dead after all, and they’ve got men in the Bank of England. 

On Monday, ahead of Thursday’s fiscal announcement, Michael Saunders, who sat on the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, claimed that Brexit had “permanently damaged” the UK economy. He additionally noted that an austerity budget would not be happening without Brexit. The UK is the only G7 economy to remain smaller than it was before the pandemic. 

Current Bank Governor Andrew Bailey subsequently admitted to a Treasury select committee that Brexit and workforce declines have been hampering the UK’s economic recovery on Wednesday. 

GOP 2024: Red vs Orange

Tuesday night saw Donald Trump announce that he is indeed running again, defying the wishes of the world, his fellow GOP members who have pointed to his 75% record of losing them elections, and essentially everyone other than the “White House Down” cosplayers who make up his base.

Widely expected to challenge him is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who now has the backing of Rupert Murdoch, In between his busy schedule of terrorising queer children and permanently looking like he is staring directly at the sun, DeSantis has managed to garner considerable support among Republicans eager to ditch the former President. 

Trump has already taken the gloves off, labelling him “Ron DeSanctimonious” (not his best work), threatening to divulge damaging personal information about him, and maybe (?) confessing to election tampering from his first run for Florida governor. Grab the popcorn!

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From tropical Bali to the depths of the Tories’ fiscal hole - that’s all from us. Have a restful, relaxed, restorative weekend. Unlike Dominic Raab, we won’t hurl tomatoes at you if you don’t. See you soon!

Best wishes,

Tommy Gillespie
Press Officer, Best for Britain

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