Accidental war with Russia possible after Ukrainian missile hits Poland on the world’s most dangerous front

The war in Ukraine is becoming unpredictable as it expands collaterally into NATO regions, and is already risking touching off a much wider conflict — and that should frighten any lawmakers in Congress looking to restore the Constitution’s Article I warmaking powers in 2023, especially in the U.S. House of Representatives, which will be changing hands in January as Republicans have reclaimed a narrow majority in the 2022 U.S. Congressional midterm elections. The incident — a stray Ukrainian missile aimed at a Russian missile barrage landed in Poland, killing two civilians — was followed by vague news reports and immediate declarations including by Ukraine that Russia was attacking NATO directly, with many calling for Article 5 of the NATO Treaty to be immediately invoked and another world war begun. But for photographs that showed the missile was actually of Ukrainian origin, and where might the world be right now?

Derek Hunter: Republicans Better Get Good at What Democrats Do, and Quick

“Republicans need to stop with the whining about mail-in ballots and start encouraging their voters to use them. There’s no way to measure how many people didn’t show up on Election Day because something suddenly came up, but the number is obviously more than zero. Moreover, it does not matter when or how a vote is cast, it counts just the same. Early voting is stupid – we managed to vote all on one day for more than 200 years (and we could count the votes in a few hours too), we should go back to that. Until we do, however, this is the way things are.”

By Robert Romano

The war in Ukraine is becoming unpredictable as it expands collaterally into NATO regions, and is already risking touching off a much wider conflict — and that should frighten any lawmakers in Congress looking to restore the Constitution’s Article I warmaking powers in 2023, especially in the U.S. House of Representatives, which will be changing hands in January as Republicans have reclaimed a narrow majority in the 2022 U.S. Congressional midterm elections.

The incident — a stray Ukrainian missile aimed at a Russian missile barrage landed in Poland, killing two civilians — was followed by vague news reports and immediate declarations including by Ukraine that Russia was attacking NATO directly, with many calling for Article 5 of the NATO Treaty to be immediately invoked and another world war begun.

Consider the somewhat vague set of facts. A single missile strike. Only two fatalities. Not a military target. An unknown source but reports say Russia did it. And that was it. Article 5.

And news agencies in the West appeared to buy it, hook, line and sinker. But for photographs that showed the missile was actually of Ukrainian origin, and where might the world be right now?

Likely arguing not merely for another $37 billion for Ukraine—which should be rubberstamped by an uncurious outgoing House majority led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)—but for even more escalation along the world’s most dangerous front.

For decades, nuclear arms abolitionists and hawks alike have warned that if a nuclear war does come, perhaps the most likely cause would not be any preemptive strikes per se, but an accidental war that began with an incident such as the Ukrainian missile strike.

Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry, who served under Bill Clinton, wrote in 2017  “because of the ongoing hostility between the U.S. and Russia, we are recreating the conditions that could lead to a nuclear war by miscalculation,” warning, “Today, just as in the Cold War, we face the possibility of an accidental war destroying our civilization.”

The late professor Stephen F. Cohen similarly warned in 2017 that “the potential for hot war—accidental or intentional” with Russia over Ukraine was becoming an increasing possibility, citing weapons provided by NATO being used by Ukraine against Russian forces as a potential catalyst.

It wouldn’t be the first time this has almost happened.

In the 1983 Soviet false nuclear alarm incident, an early warning satellite system incorrectly alerted the USSR that the U.S. had launched a preemptive nuclear strike. In the latter case, fortunately Stanislav Petrov, the Soviet officer on duty at the time monitoring the Russian early warning system, concluded it was a computer error and did not report it up the chain of command, which would have resulted in a retaliatory nuclear strike. 

The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis also stands out as a dramatic escalation as Soviet nuclear missiles were discovered in Cuba, where a single incident — intentional or not — could have potentially touched off World War III.

So, this is not a new problem. Because of the speed of intercontinental and other ballistic missiles, the accidental war is becoming an increasingly likely scenario.

Article 11 of the NATO Treaty states “This Treaty shall be … carried out by the Parties in accordance with their respective constitutional processes.”

But consider Article I, Section 8, of the Constitution, which provides Congress alone the power to declare war. In the above aforementioned scenarios, would Congress even have time to convene a roll call?

It is a false comfort, and another potential trigger for accidental war. If it looked like a declaration of war were about to pass Congress, would Moscow even wait to see what the outcome of the vote might be before retaliating? And vice versa, if Russia were to declare war or were about to.

For the President or Congress, there might be mere minutes if not seconds to decide if a potential attack is intentional or not, and whether all other possibilities of diplomacy have been exhausted.

More dangerous complexities might include potential false flags or factions who have taken control of weapons of mass destruction, setting off nuclear weapons, with the intent of sparking a wider conflict.

Or another accidental, stray missile could, say, hit the nuclear reactor at Zaporizhzhya.

Would there even be time to find out the cause?

Therefore, Congress and the President might not even know who’s shooting if the accidental war were to begin. And for the American people hoping and praying for peace, that should be the most frightening prospect of all.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2022/11/accidental-war-with-russia-possible-after-ukrainian-missile-hits-poland-on-the-worlds-most-dangerous-front/

 

Derek Hunter: Republicans Better Get Good at What Democrats Do, and Quick

By Derek Hunter

There’s no need for an autopsy, the body has already been torn apart a million different ways. There is no shortage of people offering their hot takes on why it was Republicans did so poorly in the midterms (including my own, which I believe to be the correct option). That being said, which person is to blame is not as relevant to the state of the Republican Party going forward as what they’re going to do about it. As the sharp elbows turn toward the future, where they eventually land matters. I have some suggestions, if Republicans actually want to win.

First, the idea that it was “candidate quality” isn’t completely without merit. Bad candidates don’t inspire anyone to show up and vote. It’s not always enough to get voters to dislike the opponent – unless it’s personal, a lot of people won’t bother showing up to vote against someone, and we need every vote we can get.

So, recruit better candidates and unite behind them. In a lot of these races Democrats picked the Republican. It was funny when it looked like the Republicans were going to win anyway – the idea was like Dan Aykroyd choosing the form of Gozer the Gozerian to be the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man – but Democrats crossed the streams and Republicans lost.

I’m not suggesting Republicans spend $50 million to help nominate weak Democrats like they did, but I’m not saying they shouldn’t either. In certain races, absolutely Republicans should go in and mess around in their primary process. Turnabout is the fairest of plays, perhaps the only truly fair play.

With that being said, and in the interest of fair play, the most important thing Republicans have to do is learn to play under the new rules for voting. Yes, mail-in voting is garbage, and ballot harvesting sucks. But they’re also both part of the reality right now. If Republicans don’t learn to be good at them, better than Democrats, forget about it.

There have been, and still are, all sorts of laws on the books in various states that are/were horrible. Democrats created the system of Jim Crow to make it impossible for black people to vote, for example. Those laws had to be destroyed, but until they were Republicans had to learn to win within them.

Republicans were only moderately successful in winning under Jim Crow, Democrat enforcers in the KKK were too strong, but at least the GOP tried. Today’s obstacles are much different and easier to overcome than the left’s burning bigotry.

Republicans need to stop with the whining about mail-in ballots and start encouraging their voters to use them. There’s no way to measure how many people didn’t show up on Election Day because something suddenly came up, but the number is obviously more than zero.

Moreover, it does not matter when or how a vote is cast, it counts just the same. Early voting is stupid – we managed to vote all on one day for more than 200 years (and we could count the votes in a few hours too), we should go back to that. Until we do, however, this is the way things are. The GOP needs to encourage people – hell, every person they come in contact with they’re fairly convinced will vote for them – to vote as soon as possible. Then they need to circle back to make sure they did it and harvest that ballot (if it hasn’t already been mailed) to ensure it gets to the polls.

These are the rules for now, they’d better learn to win within them because they’ve only excelled at losing while whining about them. 

Fight to change them in the various states, but until that happens they’d better get good at what Democrats are currently beating the crap out of them doing.

Think of it this way: Imagine a tax credit you personally think is garbage (whatever it is doesn’t matter) and you are working hard to repeal it. Then imagine one year you qualify for it, and it would save you thousands. You’d be a damned fool not to take it. Does it make you a hypocrite? No. That’s the rule, and just because you’re trying to change the rule doesn’t mean you can’t and shouldn’t avail yourself of the rules while they exist.

In fact, if Republicans get good at ballot harvesting and pressuring people to vote early, by mail, etc., you might see Democrats call for ending those things because of it. Democrats oppose anything Republicans do well, even if Democrats used to do them well too.

As long as garbage voting rules are in place in states across the country Republicans need to get good at them. Dislike of the current reality doesn’t change it.

To view online: https://townhall.com/columnists/derekhunter/2022/11/15/republicans-better-get-good-at-what-democrats-do-and-quick-n2615924