It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

NOW, REPUBLICANS HAVE SOME DECISIONS TO MAKE
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

2022 has taken its place in history among the most surprising elections ([link removed]) .

While some votes are still being counted, we wanted to take stock of where things stand one week after Election Day.

In the past three days, there’s been a lot of news.
* Democrats have kept the Senate by the narrowest of majorities ([link removed]) so far, with 50 seats. They could expand that to 51 if incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock wins the Dec. 6 runoff in Georgia.
* A list of close gubernatorial races have ended with Democrats winning 18, including in hard-fought Arizona ([link removed]) , and Republicans winning 17.


The fate of the House of Representatives is unsettled, but could be clear soon.
* Republicans are within one seat of taking the House. The GOP needs 218 seats ([link removed]) for a majority.
* Democrats still have a chance to keep the chamber, but it is a longshot. They would need several of the remaining races to change course significantly.
* If current races continue along current tracks, Republicans are poised to have 221 seats in the House, a thin, four-seat majority. That is a critical dynamic in their leadership elections this week.

Also uncertain: House speakership

House Republicans this week are electing leaders with the assumption that they retake the chamber. On Tuesday, in a 188-to-31 vote ([link removed]) , Republicans reelected House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., to be the GOP leader, but his pathway to become speaker in January seems a more difficult road at the moment.
* Per sources involved, McCarthy does not yet have the 218 votes he will ultimately need to win the job.
* Problem No. 1: Republicans expect to have a very thin margin in the House next year. If they do secure 221 seats, that means McCarthy could lose just three of his members and still become speaker. (That assumes no Democrats will support him, which is a safe assumption and something McCarthy has indicated himself.)
* Problem No. 2: A small but significant group of members already are withholding their votes from McCarthy. Publicly, that includes four members.
* Some of those members oppose McCarthy in principle, while others hope to trade their vote for concessions which could give more power to them and to groups, ranging from the Freedom Caucus to the Congressional Hispanic Conference, which is made up of Republican members who are Hispanic. Included in the possible concessions is a rule known as vacating the chair that would allow the Republican conference to remove the speaker of the House at almost any time.
* In McCarthy’s favor is this: While he doesn’t have 218 votes yet, no one else is close.
* This is a bit of deja vu. After John Boehner left the speakership ([link removed]) in October 2015, McCarthy was the frontrunner ([link removed]) for the job. But that time, he ultimately could not secure the votes and had to withdraw.

This time, we’re looking at McCarthy 2.0. He has spent years building up to this moment. The most likely scenario: a complex and messy process ahead.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Read: Former President Donald Trump is making an announcement ([link removed]) from Palm Beach, Florida, at 9 a.m. EST today. He’s expected to announce a 2024 White House bid.
* One Big Question: How should journalists think about covering people who say and do things that are objectively anti-democratic? Margaret Sullivan, a former media columnist for the Washington Post, weighs in ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: We now have a clearer picture on how election deniers fared in their midterm races ([link removed]) .
* Perspectives: NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report discuss what to expect in Congress ([link removed]) over the next two years.

‘HATE CAN ONLY STOKE FEAR FOR SO LONG’

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Watch the segment in the player above.

By Matt Loffman, @mattloff ([link removed])
Politics Producer

A record number of LGBTQ candidates won up and down the ballot this election cycle.

At least 436 openly LGBTQ candidates have won their midterm races, breaking previous records of 336 in 2020 ([link removed]) and 244 in 2018 ([link removed]) , according to the LGBTQ Victory Fund, an organization that supports these candidates running for office.

The historic moment – a so-called “rainbow wave” – includes the country’s first openly lesbian governors — Tina Kotek in Oregon and Maura Healey in Massachusetts. James Roesener in New Hampshire is the first trans man ever elected to a U.S. state legislature. Zooey Zephyr, who once testified against anti-trans legislation, will now be able to vote against it as the first openly trans person in Montana’s legislature.

The victories follow a push of anti-trans messages on the campaign trail this year, in particular from a number of Republican candidates who have falsely accused LGBTQ teachers or drag events ([link removed]) of “grooming” students, along with other anti-LGBTQ rhetoric.

In response to the growing anti-LGBTQ sentiment on the right, Zephyr told the NewsHour that “hate can only stoke fear for so long.”

“The people who know trans people in their lives know that we are just like anyone else, worthy of love, and we bring a ton of joy into the world. And if the right continues to push these kinds of anti-LGBTQ attacks that we're seeing … what's going to happen is, ultimately, they're going to continue to lose, because our community has the backing of the people, of our neighbors, our friends.”

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Matt Loffman, @mattloff ([link removed])
Politics Producer

As Lisa laid out above, McCarthy overwhelmingly won the backing of House Republicans today to be the GOP conference nominee for House speaker in January.

With 188 votes, McCarthy is still short of the 218 he will need to win the speaker’s gavel on the floor in January. In fact, it’s fewer than the 209 votes and 192 votes he received in the floor vote for speaker in 2021 and 2019, respectively, when current Speaker Nancy Pelosi prevailed.

McCarthy first received a single vote ([link removed]) on the House floor to be the speaker in January 2015, when John Boehner was reelected for his third term as speaker.

Our question: Who was the sole congressmember who voted for McCarthy?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: When is the next time a presidential or congressional election will be held on Nov. 8?

The answer: 2044 ([link removed]) . While there will be a Nov. 8 in 2033 and 2039, the next time a presidential or congressional Election Day will fall on that specific day won’t be until another 22 years later.

Congratulations to our winners: Well, no one got this right!

Shout-out to politics producer Matt Loffman — also this week’s trivia master — for stumping the Here’s the Deal crew.

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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