The 2022 election is almost over, one week after the last ballots were cast. It was a surprising and in many ways inspiring result. Despite inflation, fears of crime, and a toxic political atmosphere, voters took the issue of the health of our democracy seriously. Massive efforts by voting rights groups, election officials of both parties, and law enforcement made a big and visible difference. A few key trends will help shape politics going forward.

First, the election was smooth, fair, and calm. Why? Where was the wave of disruption long promised and feared? One notable answer: election officials were prepared. They were trained in de-escalation. Law enforcement at all levels — state and local police, the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security — made clear that attacks on the process would not be tolerated (that, too, is new).

Second, the voters decisively rejected election deniers in their bids to take control of election administration. In six key battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — conspiracy theorists ran for offices that will set the terms of the 2024 elections. All were defeated (in Georgia, in the spring primary).

Election denial candidates’ losses weren’t for lack of resources. A group of megadonors spent tens of millions of dollars to support them, according to Brennan Center research. Nor was it for inconsistency of message. Nearly one in three Facebook posts and one in five tweets from candidates for secretary of state peddled false election narratives, according to the Midterm Monitor, a collaboration by the Brennan Center and the Alliance for Securing Democracy.

These candidates often ran behind others on their ticket. Thousands of voters in Nevada supported the Republican Senate candidate and the new governor, for example, but voted to reject the secretary of state candidate who said if he and others won, they would “fix” the 2024 election for Donald Trump. Voters who likely had never thought of the topic three years ago chose their candidates with eyes wide open.
To be clear, the fever has not broken entirely. Dozens of legislative and congressional candidates who voiced lies about the 2020 election were elected. At one level, support for election deniers was still shockingly high. But much of that may be attributable to partisanship. The fact remains that rarely does the public speak so clearly on such a precise issue: voters care enough about democracy to reject those who would undermine it.
A third and less widely covered trend was seen in states, too. Voters backed ballot measures to strengthen democracy while generally rejecting those that would restrict access. Connecticut finally adopted early voting. Michigan expanded early and absentee voting while improving identification requirements. Nevadans backed ranked-choice voting and a “top five” finisher model that would give voters more candidates to choose from in a general election, though that plan will require another vote to become law. More than 70 percent of Arizona voters backed curbs on "dark money," and they also likely rejected a measure to impose harsher voter ID rules. Of note, the upcoming Supreme Court case on the “independent state legislature theory” could upend these and other democracy-strengthening moves.

While turnout was high in the 2022 midterms, this upswing doesn’t close the racial turnout gap, as my colleague Kevin Morris reports. According to preliminary data, early in-person and mail voting turnout was higher for white than nonwhite voters in each of the 28 states for which we already have solid individual-level voting data. The gap varied in size, but it was enormous in certain areas. In Texas, about 40 percent of white voters but only 20 percent of nonwhite voters cast their ballots before Election Day. We’ll have updated data very soon.
And of course, the former president still spouts lies about our democracy, with his possible candidacy backed by millions of Americans.
The bottom line: We have seen, with growing unease, the rise of an antidemocratic election denier movement. In 2022, we saw the emergence of a pro-democracy movement across both parties. That can be the story of American politics going forward — if we make it so.


Key 2022 State Supreme Court Election Results
The increasing importance of state high courts in protecting rights put greater attention on this year’s judicial elections and drove record-high spending, particularly in contests where a court’s ideological or partisan majority was at stake. A new Brennan Center resource breaks down the results of some of the most competitive state supreme court races and their potential impact on issues such as abortion access and voting rights. READ MORE

How Criminal Justice Reformers Fared in the Midterms
Polling showed crime was a major issue for voters in the 2022 election. However, some candidates who tried to capitalize on those concerns lost to opponents who support criminal justice reform. “Many factors were at play in the election,” Lauren-Brooke Eisen writes, “but it’s clear that painting an opponent as ‘soft on crime’ did not necessarily prove to be a ticket to victory.” READ MORE

Lessons for Evaluating State Constitutional History
From decisions about partisan gerrymandering to abortion to the rights of defendants in criminal cases, state high courts are playing a significant role in state constitutional development. In many instances, they’ve looked to the history of their constitutions to inform their decisions. Our new resource highlights three articles that raise important questions about how courts should use these histories, particularly when information is lost or unreliable. READ MORE


Coming Up

VIRTUAL EVENT: A Close Look at the ‘Independent State Legislature Theory’
Wednesday, November 30, 6–7:45 p.m. ET

Join this live virtual panel event for a discussion of the so-called “independent state legislature theory,” front and center in Moore v. Harper, one of this Supreme Court term’s most watched cases. Prominent scholars and practitioners will take on the constitutional underpinnings of the independent state legislature theory, the historical origins of the relevant constitutional clauses, and the challenges that a Supreme Court decision endorsing this theory would present for our democracy. RSVP TODAY

Produced in partnership with the New York City Bar Association. This event is free for all non-lawyers and $15 for lawyers who are not members of the New York City Bar Association.
Want to keep up with Brennan Center Live events? Subscribe to the events newsletter.

News

Michael Li on the effects of redistricting on New York’s congressional races // TIME
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Michael Waldman on the strong defenses against disruptions on Election Day // WASHINGTON POST
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Daniel Weiner on the failure of two gambling-related ballot initiatives in California // NBC
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