Crow — the avian white meat! I’m eating a lot of it today as my prediction of a big GOP win comes crashing down. The question is why: What did I miss that others caught?

A few things come to mind quickly. First, President Biden’s job approval among voters was higher than among the public. Exit polls gave Biden a 44 percent job approval, about 2 points higher than the major polling aggregators’ averages. That difference alone would have tempered my predictions.

But that wasn’t the main factor. Instead, Democrats did something no one has done in decades: Do well with voters who somewhat disapprove of the president. I noted the importance of this group in a summertime column, writing that since 2006, the president’s party has lost this group by 20 points or more in every midterm House generic ballot exit poll. On Tuesday, Democrats won among this demographic by 4 points, according to exit polling.