Daily News Brief
January 03, 2020
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Top of the Agenda
U.S. Strike Kills Iran’s Top Military Commander 
Qassim Suleimani, a top Iranian security force commander and the architect of Tehran’s regional military operations, was killed (NYT) in Baghdad by a drone strike ordered by U.S. President Donald J. Trump, the Pentagon announced. The Pentagon said Suleimani was planning to attack Americans in the region and that he had approved a recent attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Iran’s foreign minister called the killing (Al Jazeera) an “act of state terrorism” and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised “harsh revenge.”
 
Suleimani commanded the elite Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and was widely thought to be the second-most powerful person in Iran. Iran declared three days of mourning, while the State Department urged all U.S. citizens to leave Iraq immediately (CNN).  Republican Senator Lindsey Graham praised the strike (Al-Monitor) as a “bold action against Iranian aggression.” Other lawmakers, such as House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel, warned the strike could lead to direct military confrontation without congressional approval.
Analysis
“Many Iraqi politicians, by necessity and in some cases by choice, have close ties to Iran, and pressure will grow to oust US forces from the country. If there is a back-and-forth between the United States and Iran, it is simply the case that Iran has more allies and more influence there, and many Iraqi leaders are likely to bow to Iranian pressure,” Daniel Byman writes for Vox.
 
“Make no mistake: any war with Iran will not look like the 1990 Gulf war or the 2003 Iraq wars. It will be fought throughout the region w a wide range of tools vs a wide range of civilian, economic, & military targets. The region (and possibly the world) will be the battlefield,” tweets CFR President Richard N. Haass.
 
This CFR Backgrounder looks at Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Pacific Rim
Fire Warnings, Evacuations Continue in Australia
Australia’s most populous state, New South Wales, declared a seven-day state of emergency (SMH) in anticipation of worsening fire conditions, while officials urged the evacuation of an area spanning hundreds of square miles.
 
Japan: Interpol issued a wanted notice (Nikkei) at the request of Japanese investigators for former Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn, who fled from house arrest in Tokyo for Lebanon.

South and Central Asia
Pakistan Introduces Bill to Extend Term for Army Chief
Pakistan’s government introduced a bill (Reuters) that would allow General Qamar Javed Bajwa to remain as chief of army staff for three more years after Prime Minister Imran Khan’s previous move to extend Bajwa’s term was defeated by the Supreme Court. Government officials said they had negotiated support for the bill with the country’s opposition.
 
Bangladesh: Authorities blocked access to a Sweden-based investigative news website after it published allegations that Bangladesh’s road transport and bridges minister had accepted bribes, according to an Al Jazeera report.

Middle East and North Africa
Algeria, Tunisia Announce New Governments
The neighboring countries announced the formation (AP) of new governments. Tunisia’s prime minister-designate nominated a record number of women to senior positions, while Algeria’s president left several posts from the previous government unchanged (Reuters).
 
In Foreign Affairs, Sarah E. Yerkes discusses why Tunisia is a model for democracy in the Arab world.

Sub-Saharan Africa
South Sudan President Pardons Dozens
President Salva Kiir pardoned (Reuters) thirty-one prisoners in a goodwill measure to continue the country’s peace process, according to state media.
 
Nigeria: A protester-led shutdown of the energy utility in the city of Yenagoa entered its tenth day (AFP) yesterday. The demonstrators denounced frequent blackouts in the region. 

Europe
Turkey Approves Military Support for Libya
Turkey’s parliament approved (Al-Monitor) the deployment of troops to support Libya’s internationally recognized government in Tripoli and established a one-year mandate to send the country weapons, planes, and vehicles.
 
CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker traces the most recent developments in Libya’s civil war.
 
Denmark: The country sourced a record-breaking 47 percent (Reuters) of its electricity from wind power in 2019, according to its grid operator.

Americas
Mexico Raises Minimum Wage
Mexico has raised its minimum wage (WaPo) twenty percent to around $6.85 per day as part of concessions made in its new trade agreement with Canada and the United States.
 
Cuba: The United States sanctioned defense minister Leopoldo Cintra Frias and his children for Cintra Frias’s support of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the State Department announced.

United States
Trump Administration Announces Vaping Restrictions
Beginning next month, companies will be banned (NYT) from selling e-cigarette cartridges in flavors other than menthol and tobacco, federal health officials announced.
 
This CFR In Brief looks at the backlash against e-cigarettes.
Friday Editor’s Pick
The Atlantic looks at what U.S. intelligence experts in 2004 got right—and what they got wrong—when they predicted 2020’s global state of affairs.
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