It’s looking increasingly as if nurses are going to strike, with the Royal College breaking with its past and planning to stop non-urgent treatment. It’s seeking a deal which compensates for inflation and adds 5 per cent – a pay increase of just over 17 per cent, instead of the 4.8 per cent recommended by the NHS Pay Review.  

Over-the-top union pay demands backed with strike threats are a staple of collective bargaining. So is initial employer intransigence, with apparently firm commitment to a low offer. Disputes are, however, usually settled somewhere between the extremes as both sides learn more about their counterparts’ real position. 

This is an elaborate game, played out for more than a century in countless disputes. The RCN, however, is the new kid on the block. It seems to be relying on public gratitude for the care which nurses provide to make the final settlement closer to its own position than that of a government which seems to plumb new depths pf unpopularity each week, while U-turning on every previous commitment. 

Maybe. But if a strike actually occurs, and hundreds of thousands of patients find treatment postponed and waiting lists expanding beyond the seven million or so we already have, that gratitude could disappear faster than Liz Truss’s official car.  

While on the other side, the government knows that offering even half of what the nurses are asking for will be difficult when belts are being tightened right across the public sector. As nurses constitute only about a third of the workers covered by the recent NHS Pay Review, there would be pressure from everybody from doctors, to radiographers, to porters for an equivalent pay hike.  

And there are many others in the wider public sector doing vitally important jobs – the police, the fire service and so on – who would feel aggrieved. Already teachers are balloting for strike action, seeking 12 per cent. And beyond them, private sector workers who may have lost jobs and lost pay during lockdown and furlough, while NHS workers did not. Few private sector workers are in powerful unions, they earn less than public sector workers, and on average have far poorer pension arrangements. Their taxes ultimately support nurses and the rest of the public sector. 

There is room for some minor improvements in the government’s offer, perhaps around the detail of pension contributions, one of the issues concerning  RCN members. But nurses will surely be disappointed if they expect their new-found militancy to lead to anything like a 17% pay increase. 

Professor Len Shackleton
IEA Editorial and Research Fellow

GOOD COP OR BAD COP?

This week, world leaders flew to Sharm El Sheikh to attend COP27, the UN's annual summit on climate change. Despite initially suggesting he would not attend the event, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak flew in to take part in the conference.



Writing for CapX, IEA Chief Operating Officer and Energy Analyst Andy Mayer argued that the Prime Minister's first instinct to skip COP and focus on domestic issues was the right one, noting that "without a resilient, affordable energy system rooted in realism about the pace of change from fossil fuel to low carbon, we’re hardly a good example" and that Number 10 should not have been seen to endorse the decision to put climate reparations on the agenda.



In her fortnightly column for Conservative Home, IEA Head of Media Emily Carver noted the huge financial commitments the Prime Minister highlighted in his speech, including tens of millions on environmental projects in developing countries. In the same speech, he spoke of making "difficult decisions" on public spending and taxes at home.

She also noted the contradiction in the government's willingness to import billions of cubic metres of fracked gas from the US, while opposing similar technologies at home.



In this week's podcast, IEA Head of Public Policy Matthew Lesh spoke to Sam Hall, Director of the Conservative Environment Network, to discuss whether the summit is a worthwhile exercise.

Sam argued that the conferences are necessary to ensure there is a level of international cooperation in bringing down carbon emissions but acknowledged that progress is painfully slow due to the nature of the decision-making processes. Watch here.

iN THE MEDIA



The only way is up... Ahead of next week's Autumn Budget statement, there have been reports across the media that the government is looking to raise taxes substantially, including hiking the top rate of income tax from 45p to 50p – as well as freezing or reducing thresholds.

Writing in the Daily Mail, IEA Director General Mark Littlewood noted that not even the Labour Party had suggested such a rise, noting "we find ourselves contemplating he extraordinary possibility of a Tory government outbidding the Left on tax rises.”

Mark also emphasised how government tax policy is increasingly based on virtue signalling and political posturing rather than sound economics:

“The Government ought to know very well that it is untrue to claim our burgeoning public expenditure can be funded by an assault on the 1.4 per cent of earners who breach the 45p threshold. So we can only assume that Downing Street advisers think a punitive 50p tax rate would play well at the polls — and put them in a position to rebuff claims that Rishi Sunak, himself extraordinarily wealthy, is in politics only to help ‘his rich friends in the City’, as the Left is so fond of claiming.”



Taxing times... Quoted by the BBC, IEA Head of Public Policy Matthew Lesh acknowledged that the state is facing “lower-than-expected revenues and higher debt costs” but argued that  with recession looming, a credible plan for growth must be the government's priority, which tax hikes may put in jeopardy.  Read here.



A safety hazard... It remains unclear whether the Online Safety Bill will retain its 'legal but harmful' duty that would require Big Tech platforms to state in their terms and conditions how they will tackle “misinformation” and “hate speech”.

Writing for The Telegraph, Matthew Lesh noted that Ofcom will be empowered to ensure platforms are enforcing their terms and conditions and tackling (legal) harms – which is likely to lead to overzealous censorship on tech platforms.



Nurses revolt... With nurses across the UK voting to strike over pay, IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon wrote for the Daily Express on the mismanagement of the NHS budget, which now stands at over £170bn.

He questioned whether the money is being spent efficiently, noting that the public and nursing staff are entitled to ask why more money isn't going to frontline salaries rather than self-serving bureaucracy.



(Un)Free speech... IEA Head of Cultural Affairs Marc Glendening wrote for CapX on the jailing of two Met Policemen for sending grossly offensive WhatsApp messages.

While the Met Police has every right to set standards for its staff, "in a free society people should be free to be ‘grossly offensive’, because what constitutes this is, by definition, a matter of subjective judgement". Therefore, such speech should not be subject to the law.

IEA DIGITAL

A way forward..? This week, IEA Communications Officer Harrison Griffiths interviewed Aaron Ross Powell, philosopher and host of the (Re)Imagining Liberty podcast, to discuss the case for a 'radical liberalism' and the question of whether liberals have shifted too far to the right. You can watch on the IEA YouTube channel here. 



IEA Podcast... And, in this week's podcast, IEA Head of Public Policy Matthew Lesh spoke to Daniel Pryor, Head of Research at the Adam Smith Institute, about Britain's immigration system, including failures at the Home Office. Watch here.

YOU'RE INVITED!

On Monday 12 December, 12.30-2.30pm, the IEA Book Club will be hosting journalists Harry Cole and James Heale to discuss their latest book “Out of the Blue: The inside story of the unexpected rise and rapid fall of Liz Truss”. This event will take place at the IEA Westminster office and will be chaired by IEA Head of Public Policy Matthew Lesh.

Despite being written off and mocked by even her closest colleagues, Liz Truss slowly but determinedly achieved her goal of taking over 10 Downing Street – only to instantly plunge her administration into chaos and announce her resignation after a record-breaking 44 days. How did she do it? And what exactly went so wrong?

With unrivalled access and insight, award-winning political journalists Harry Cole and James Heale provide the answers, drawing on interviews with Truss’s friends and supporters, as well as her worst critics and rivals, from Kwasi Kwarteng to Michael Gove.

Tracking Truss’s transformation from geeky teenage Lib Dem to Tory PM, with the inside scoop on her first – and only – month in office, Out of the Blue is the unmissable behind-the-scenes account of Britain’s shortest-serving Prime Minister.

This event is exclusive to IEA Book Club members. For more information on the Book Club, please contact [email protected] or follow the link here

CALLING ALL STUDENTS!



Future thought leaders... We are delighted to announce that applications for our Future Thought Leader Programmes for sixth-formers and undergraduates are now open! There will be two weeks for sixth formers in April, and one in July. The undergraduate programmes will be in July and August.

You can find out more information on the programmes, and how to apply here.



Monetary policy essay price... Applications remain open for the monetary policy essay prize, organised by the IEA, the Institute of International Monetary Policy Research and the Vinson Centre at the University of Buckingham.

This year's question is: Are the central banks to blame for the current inflation episode?

To be in with a chance of winning up to £500, you must submit your answer by 6 January 2023. Further details on how to enter can be found here.