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By Jon Coupal
While the title of this column assumes that Republicans will do very well nationally on election day, it’s not just idle speculation. Democrats and pundits have all but conceded the inevitability. Political junkies will also tell you that it is confirmed by several factors beyond polling. For example, in races that were once thought to be competitive, Democrats have shifted resources to safer districts to protect incumbents.
For fiscal conservatives, voting for GOP candidates is usually – but not always – the safer bet. So, if the predictions of a “Red Wave” are accurate, does this portend a seismic shift in political power here in California as well as hope for the state’s beleaguered taxpayers? While history suggests not, since “Red Waves” typically fail to clear the Sierra Mountain range, there may be some rays of sunshine.
First, the history, which suggests tough sledding for the Republicans. In three election cycles during the last 20 years, Republicans performed much better than expected nationally but underperformed in California. For example, in 2010, when national Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives, and biggest party swing since 1948, California Republicans lost a seat in the California Assembly and Democrats won every statewide office.
In 2014, Republicans picked up 13 seats nationally. But while Republicans in California picked up seats in both the Assembly and Senate, every statewide office was again won by the Democrats.
The 2016 election saw Donald Trump swept into the White House and Republicans returned to power in Congress, albeit with diminished majorities. In California, Republicans lost seats in both houses of the Legislature, and in California’s first open Senate seat in 24 years, two Democrats made it into the top-two.
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