The eve of our distraction

At the risk of belaboring the point, at The Topline, we’re joining the chorus of voices that is calling this election one of the most important of our lifetimes…or at least since 2020. Some of the predictions of the anti-democratic future we could face based on the results of tomorrow’s election are admittedly a bit hyperbolic, but the real danger lies not in overstating the possibilities but in understating them. Are Americans paying enough attention, or will inflation, crime, and international tensions—all troubling issues in their own right—take precedence at the ballot box, as in more traditional midterm years past? Polls show Americans are worried about democracy, but maybe not enough. Former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, who worked in the George W. Bush Administration and now co-chairs the Forward Party, said last week that a part of her hopes "all the crazies do win" the election to give Americans a wake-up call before the next presidential election. "But then I realize no,” she continued, “I don't want to live in that world, and I don't want to leave it for my grandkids either, the damage they can do." We couldn’t agree more. —Melissa Amour, Managing Editor

• Putin-linked businessman admits to U.S. election meddling —Associated Press

• Senior White House official involved in undisclosed talks with top Putin aides —The Wall Street Journal

• Dems, GOP make urgent final pitches as election season wraps —Yahoo! News

• Netanyahu says Biden congratulates him after Israeli election win —Reuters

• World is on ‘highway to climate hell’, UN chief warns at Cop27 summit —The Guardian

Time to vote

It’s here at last: Election Day 2022. The midterm election of President Biden’s first term is widely expected to be a blowout for Republicans, because that’s what historically happens to the party in opposition to the president—especially an unpopular one. But this isn’t just any year. It’s the first election after the Jan. 6 insurrection. It’s the first election after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. It’s the first election since we’ve hit 40-year highs in economic inflation. And it’s the first election in which a critical mass of candidates in one party doesn’t believe the results of the last general election. How much will these factors play into the outcome of tomorrow’s poll? No one knows for sure. Just as importantly, will losing candidates accept losses with grace, or will we wind up with a replay of 2020, across the country and up and down the ballot? —Las Vegas Review-Journal

• Gerrymandering. Other factors will play into who controls Congress in January. One of them is redistricting. While gerrymandering reduced the number of traditional swing seats in House races, the potential for a sizable Republican wave has turned many usually safe seats into competitive battlegrounds. In 2020, 51 House districts backed either President Biden or Donald Trump by five points or less. This year, only 34 districts fit those categories. Cook Political Report rates 64 seats as toss-ups or leaning, meaning there are a historically high number of competitive races. —Axios

• Early voting. Nearly 43 million of us couldn’t wait until tomorrow and already cast our votes via early in-person or mail-in voting. If you’re one of those who did, there’s a 45% chance that you’re a Democrat…and a 35% chance that you’re a Republican. And there’s a 20% chance that you’re one of those highly prized unaffiliated voters whom candidates try to woo at the end. But the voting is far from over, and with a lot of independents left to vote (many who’ve swung to the red column in recent days), a number of races are too close for pollsters to call. —NBC News

• The truth is, they just don’t know. With so many variables in play, even political pollsters don’t know what to think. The elections could go exactly as modeled—a 20-some-odd-seat pickup for Republicans in the House and maybe a 51-49 GOP Senate—but the people who watch these races the closest are also warning they might be wrong in decisive ways, in either direction. In other words, it’s up to us. If you haven’t already, please vote. —The Daily Beast

MORE ELECTION NEWS:

• Republicans sue to disqualify mail ballots in swing states —The Washington Post

• On social media, hunting for voter fraud becomes a game —The New York Times

• In the hunt for voter fraud, Republican door knockers are intimidating residents —Reuters

• Law enforcement ratchets up presence in voting process as some sheriffs push election conspiracy theories —CNN

• Inside the unhinged midterm election conspiracy theories on Truth Social —The Guardian

• Russian disinformation campaigns again targeting midterms —Axios

Klein: Yes, democracy is on the ballot 

“[T]he first-ever impeachment trial for an ex-president and head-spinning revelations from the Jan. 6 committee did nothing discernible to end election denialism. Barely a week before the election, a vicious break-in attack on the husband of the speaker of the House of Representatives—intended, apparently, at kidnapping the speaker herself—prompted no serious reconsideration of the consequences of lies about election results. Now, there's a very real if not inevitable scenario that will leave people who say they would not have certified the last election in charge of running the next one—including in pivotal and perennial battleground states.” —Rick Klein in ABC News

Rick Klein is the political director of ABC News.

MORE: A guide to the election deniers in midterm races —CNN

Kleinfeld: De-mainstreaming political violence 

“The attack against Paul Pelosi was horrific, but it was not an isolated event. In the last five years, political violence has skyrocketed on the right, and desire is growing on the left. The public’s willingness to support partisan violence in America now approaches levels recorded in Northern Ireland at the height of its troubles. … Political violence is, by definition, inspired by politics. To roll it back, Americans need to disincentivize it. Right now, 90% of congressional races are so safe that they fear only a threat from their own ideological side. That’s driving extremism. We need to get rid of primaries in favor of ranked-choice and other voting systems that force candidates to cater to the whole electorate.” —Rachel Kleinfeld in Politico

Rachel Kleinfeld is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where she advises governments and philanthropists on how democracies can address violence and polarization.

MORE: Americans express broad concerns about the risk of political violence —ABC News

Focus on Georgia 

In the U.S. Senate race in Georgia, where a slew of allegations against Republican candidate Herschel Walker have beleaguered his campaign, a new poll shows he’s taken the lead over Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, 48% to 45%. The poll took place after a second woman alleged that Walker encouraged and paid for her 1993 abortion—Walker, who supports Georgia’s anti-abortion law, has denied the woman’s claims. According to InsiderAdvantage Chair Matt Towery, who oversaw the poll, "It appears the new allegations had no impact on the race and perhaps are having a reverse effect." If the trend continues, Towery believes Walker could win the race outright tomorrow, though a runoff still seems more likely. —FOX 5 Atlanta

• A record-breaking election. More than 2.5 million Georgians have already cast ballots by mail or voting early in person, setting a new record for the state. According to NBC News, 49% of early voters are registered Democrats and 42% are Republicans. But so many questions remain. Will Republican-leaning rural areas see strong turnout? Will Democrats continue the show of force at the ballot box that they delivered in recent elections? Will Atlanta-area suburbanites and white college graduates who rejected the GOP under Donald Trump stick with Democrats or flip back? Stay tuned. —NBC News

• Trouble already. Georgia counties have had their share of election management problems in recent years, and this year appears to be no exception. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger opened an investigation today into the Cobb County Board of Elections and Registration's failure to mail more than 1,000 absentee ballots to voters, after two civil rights groups filed a lawsuit related to the oversight. While the board is blaming human error, Raffensperger's office called the unmailed ballots "unacceptable,” and it will “determine appropriate consequences.” —CNBC

MORE: Trump lawyers saw Justice Thomas as 'only chance' to stop 2020 election certification —Politico

Blockwood: We must choose between division and patriotism

“Democracy is a concept not yet perfected. It may never be. In a truly free state, democracy can only be preserved through nourishment and finding common ground. It will take time, intentionality, strong leadership, and trust to restore our faith in democratic institutions. We all have a role in sustaining our democracy—a president must lead while unifying our country; Congress must find common ground and enact laws that strengthen society; and the public must vote responsibly and hold those we elect to represent us accountable and to the highest standards. No one is coming to save us. It is up to us—and within us—to save ourselves.” —James-Christian Blockwood in The Fulcrum

James-Christian Blockwood is the executive vice president of the Partnership for Public Service and a fellow of the National Academy of Public Administration.

MORE: Increasingly dissatisfied voters favor getting a third party choice —CNBC

Breyman: Voters are ready to move forward

“When I talk to voters in our community, I hear exhaustion, and I hear fatigue. But I also hear something else: I hear a resounding desire to move forward. …[P]eople are not nearly as concerned with voting ‘left’ or voting ‘right’ as they are for moving beyond this negative discourse and simply finding someone who understands them, someone who will help them, someone who will do more for their community, someone they can trust to make decisions for real people—and not work on behalf corporations, special interests, and party machines.” —Ilya Breyman in Broad & Liberty

Ilya Breyman is running for state representative in Pennsylvania’s 178th District.

MORE: Break-away Democrats and Republicans form new “Forward Party” —Yahoo! News

Hearing Trump's new (but obvious) nickname for Ron DeSantis made me wonder:

Is he hoping that his most ardent supporters will either refrain from voting on Tuesday, or actually vote for Charlie Crist, knowing that a diminished victory will make the Governor a weaker Republican primary candidate in 2024...while a defeat would leave him with little more to do than be one of Greg Gutfeld's guffawing sidekicks? —Jim V., New York

The views expressed in "What's Your Take?" are submitted by readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial staff or the Renew America Foundation.