Before Americans head to the polls on Tuesday, November 8, Ruy Teixeira, Karlyn Bowman, and Nate Moore conclude their AEI Elections and Demography Project series with a final overview of the trends—including a surge in support for Republicans—that pollsters have observed in the electorate over the past month. One interesting trend they find is among pollsters themselves: "After a couple cycles with significant polling errors, the total number of surveys fell dramatically this year."

This week, AEI's scholars also investigated developing challenges for policymakers on the home front and around the world.

According to Desmond Lachman, Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement shows that America's central bankers are beginning to recognize their interest rate hikes' negative effects on economic growth. Lachman expects that this recognition will influence decision-making when the Fed considers further rate increases.

Mackenzie Eaglen, Eric Sayers, and Dustin Walker argue that the Pentagon's recent decision to withdraw fighter jet squadrons from Japan's Kadena Air Base deals a blow to America's strategic position in the Indo-Pacific. Eaglen, Sayers, and Walker say that this withdrawal does not match the need, identified in the recent National Security Strategy, for "combat-credible airpower in the Indo-Pacific."

The Biden administration has called for a green-energy revolution to deal with America's energy woes, but Hal Brands contends that such an approach may intensify the problems it's intended to solve. "For one thing, energy transitions don't happen quickly or cleanly," writes Brands.

"Will the strong dollar trigger a global recession?" asks Steven B. Kamin in a new AEI Economic Policy Working Paper. Kamin considers the evidence in favor of the claim that the Fed's tight monetary policy has harmed other countries' economies.

Katherine Zimmerman and Cleary Waldo explain how Iranian-made drones have bolstered the arsenals of Russia's troops invading Ukraine. These drones aren't just potent weapons for the Russians, write Zimmerman and Waldo, but also an emerging way for the Iranian regime to prepare for future offensive operations.