Hudson Releases In-Depth Analysis on Democratic Backsliding, Security Competition in Indo-Pacific

Thai anti-government protesters hold up a three-fingered salute during a rally against restrictions on political speech on October 31, 2021, in Bangkok, Thailand. (Lauren DeCicca via Getty Images)

Hudson Institute released a new report today, Indo-Pacific Democracy: A Baseline Study of Major Trends and Driving Forces. This deeply researched report examines the decline of democracy and rise of security competition in the Indo-Pacific region and proposes that the two are related. Below are major findings and policy recommendations in the report.

Key Insights

1. A democratic recession has steadily unfolded across the Indo-Pacific region since the 2010s.

By region, Southeast Asia has suffered from the most severe drop in democracy scores, while East Asia and South Asia have experienced a moderate decrease. Oceania remains the most democratic subregion as its democracy scores improved slightly.

2. The Indo-Pacific region has shifted from democratic advancement to democratic backsliding.

In 2008, more than 60 percent of countries in the region were advancing democratically. But in the three years from 2019 to 2021, more political regimes experienced democratic backsliding than made democratic advancement. Evidence also shows that democratic recession is much more pronounced in populous societies than in sparsely populated societies. Overall, both the number and percentage of people living under autocratic-leaning regimes and autocratic regimes have reached record-high levels.

3. Domestic and geopolitical forces have caused a democratic recession in the Indo-Pacific.

Domestically, deep-rooted cleavages are a principal driver of democratic recession. In these countries and territories, illiberal strongmen—including populist leaders, army generals, and nationalist leaders—exploit such cleavages to reinforce their repression of democracy. Geopolitically in the multipolar Indo-Pacific, illiberal powers, including China and Russia, are expanding their spheres of influence by supporting illiberal strongmen.

4. Policymakers should reconsider their assumptions about how democracy and security interact.

This report questions the traditional approach to thinking about democracy promotion and security competition as two distinct fields. Using the Indo-Pacific as a backdrop, the report finds that there is a distinct correlation between the two and proposes eliminating the analytical wall between them.