It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Steve Marcus/Reuters

WHY NEVADA MAY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT STATE THIS ELECTION
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Take the population of Chicago and spread it across an area roughly the size of Italy.

Throw in the potential to determine control of both the U.S. Senate and the House — and you have Nevada.

PBS NewsHour producer Tess Conciatori ([link removed]) and I spent two days in the Silver State last week to get a better sense of what’s at stake on Election Day. Here are some of our takeaways from what may be the most important state to watch on Nov. 8.

Why watch Nevada?

So many reasons.
* Let’s start with this: Nevada has five congressional races, total. And four of them could go either way. No other state has more concentrated, consequential races for the balance of power in Washington.
* At the top of the list, the U.S. Senate contest alone is critical. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the chamber. Nearly all of Republicans’ best paths to taking over the Senate essentially depend on gaining her seat ([link removed]) . The Republican candidate is former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt. As one Republican strategist told me, it is nearly as close as you can get to a generic D versus R matchup.
* And three of the state’s four House races are competitive. All have Democratic incumbents ([link removed]) : Rep. Dina Titus in Nevada’s first congressional district, Rep. Susie Lee in the second and Rep. Steve Horsford in the fourth. Reminder: Republicans need to pick up five seats (net) to regain control of the House.
* It is an important test for which party can make gains with Latinos, the country’s second-largest racial or ethnic group after white, non-Hispanic Americans. Some 30 percent of Nevada’s population is Hispanic or Latino, per the U.S. Census. Democrats and Republicans are both targeting them now, as we explained in a recent story ([link removed]) .

A quick state snapshot
* Political geography. Nevada borders five other states: California, Oregon, Idaho, Utah and Arizona. That means it shares borders with states of every political leaning: blue, purple and red.
* Population center. Nearly 75 percent of the state’s population lives in a single county: Clark County, which includes Las Vegas.
* Demographics. The last set of census figures revealed that white, non-Hispanics now make up less than 50 percent of Nevada’s population. Here is the breakdown. White, non-Hispanic: 46.6 percent. Hispanic or Latino: 29.9 percent. Black or African American: 10.6 percent. Asian: 9.1 percent.
* Economy. Nevada was hit hard by the pandemic, but has recovered tens of thousands of jobs. Now, low-wage workers there are especially hard-hit by a rent crisis, and the state’s inflation is tied for highest in the nation.

How the state votes
* By mail: Nevada has mailed out a ballot to every registered voter. Those need to be postmarked by Election Day and arrive at the local election office within four days of the election.
* Early in-person voting: This is underway now ([link removed]) . That began Oct. 22 and goes through Nov. 4.
* Votes so far: 296,741 ballots had been cast by the end of last week, according to the Nevada secretary of state ([link removed]) .
* The majority of those first votes, 181,058, were mail-in ballots. The largest percentage of mail-in ballots – 45.9 percent – were from registered Democrats. Registered Republicans made up 29 percent of the mail-in ballots received so far. (The rest of the ballots were independents or those registered with no political party.)

More on the midterms from our coverage:
* Read: As several news ([link removed]) outlets ([link removed]) have noted ([link removed]) , a majority of Republican nominees on the ballot across the nation have denied or questioned the outcome of the last presidential election.
* One Big Question: How are state and local officials ensuring elections are safe and secure? One expert weighs in on why Americans should have confidence in the election process ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: Some Oklahoma teachers say they’re “walking on eggshells” ([link removed]) after lawmakers banned the teaching of critical race theory in public schools. Will this one midterm race help?
* Perspectives: There’s one week left before Election Day. NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report discuss what is shaping these final days ([link removed]) of campaigning before the midterms.

LIZ CHENEY ENDORSES ANOTHER DEMOCRAT
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Watch Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s conversation with PBS NewsHour anchor and managing editor Judy Woodruff in the player above.

By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage ([link removed])
Senior Editor, Digital

Travis Daub, @tcd004 ([link removed])
Director of Digital

Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney endorsed the Democratic candidate ([link removed]) in Ohio’s closely contested Senate race in the final stretch of campaigning before the midterm elections.

Speaking with NewsHour’s Judy Woodruff on Tuesday, Cheney said she supports Democrat Tim Ryan for Ohio’s open Senate seat ([link removed]) over Republican JD Vance, a Trump loyalist who has questioned the 2020 election outcome.

If she were a Buckeye, “I would not vote for JD Vance,” Cheney said.

Cheney, who serves as vice chair of the House Jan. 6 committee, is among the most prominent Republicans who have spoken out against former President Donald Trump and the “Big Lie” that the 2020 results of the presidential election were fraudulent. Cheney lost the 2022 Republican primary election ([link removed]) in Wyoming to a Trump-backed candidate who’s embraced election falsehoods.

Last week, Cheney endorsed Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin in her reelection bid in Michigan. It was the Republican’s first-ever endorsement of a Democrat.

“We’re at a moment now where my party has really lost its way,” she said. “It’s dangerous because we’ve become beholden to a man who was willing to attempt to stop the peaceful transfer of power.”

“We can’t give power to people who have told us they won’t respect the outcome of elections," she added.

At Tuesday’s event, Cheney said she might endorse more Democrats before Election Day. The Republican also said the Jan. 6 panel is “in discussions” with lawyers about Trump’s potential testimony.

Tuesday’s forum in Cleveland was produced in partnership with Ideastream Public Media.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Matt Loffman, @mattloff ([link removed])
Politics Producer

One seat. Either party needs a net gain of just one seat to take control of the Senate this election.

If neither party picks up a seat, the Senate would remain tied at 50-50 ([link removed]) , a rare event in U.S. history.

Our question: How many times has the Senate been split evenly between Democrats and Republicans?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: In how many of those states were Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s vote totals separated by less than one percent in the 2020 presidential election?

The answer: Three. They were Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.

Congratulations to our winner: Jim Brydon!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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