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American Dental Education Association

Volume 2, No. 74, November 1, 2022

Republicans Favored to Take Back the House
 
The 2022 midterm election is just around the corner and the GOP is heavily favored [ [link removed] ] to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Democrats have held a majority in the House since the 2018 election but currently have an advantage of fewer than 10 seats [ [link removed] ] . Thus, control of the House will be decided by just a handful of districts [ [link removed] ] across the country.
 
Historically, the first midterm election in a new president’s tenure is seen as a referendum on their job performance. It is common for the party of a first-term President to suffer losses in the midterm election [ [link removed] ] . While this tendency is not a guaranteed result, it is a key factor in election projections, particularly when analyzing the House of Representatives.
 
Democrat and Republican candidates have focused on some of the same issues and others on quite different matters. The most recent Gallop polling found that, as is often the case in elections, the economy is the most mentioned issue among voters.
 
This is the first election since the 2020 census and thus, will feature newly drawn congressional districts, with many having been designed to favor one party over the other. This has been a growing trend in recent elections, as an increase in partisanship across the board has resulted in fewer districts that are deemed competitive. As a result, there are fewer districts [ [link removed] ] up for grabs this year as compared to the previous House map.

Senate Races Tightening, Control of Senate a Tossup
 
With the current makeup of the Senate being an even 50-50 split, the results of this month’s senate races will have a significant impact on the direction of the federal government next year. Depending on the outcome, it could also have a strong influence on committee assignments, administrative priorities and Congressional oversight investigations.
 
The most competitive campaigns [ [link removed] ] , rated as Toss Ups by Cook Political Report, are three Senate seats held by Democrats in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and two Republican seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Other races, such as Ohio, North Carolina and New Hampshire, have been competitive for most of the cycle but have started to move towards having clearer frontrunners [ [link removed] ] with the GOP favored in Ohio and North Carolina, both currently held by Republicans, and Democrats favored in New Hampshire, where Sen. Maggie Hansen (D) is seeking reelection. In the closing days of election season, Democrats and Republicans alike will focus on the most competitive states, directing resources [ [link removed] ] to where they can have the most impact.
 
According to FiveThirtyEight [ [link removed] ] , considered an unbiased polling and data forecasting website, Democrats have an enjoyed an advantage for most of the fall, consistently polling higher than their Republican counterparts in generic ballot questions. However, the races have tightened in recent weeks to the point where control of the Senate is almost a pure tossup—meaning either party has an equal chance of being in the majority when new members are sworn in January.
 
There is also the possibility that the senate will remain a tie and that will require Vice President Kamala Harris to cast her tie-breaking vote in the next Congress. Until now, Vice President Harris has had to break 26 tie votes [ [link removed] ] since taking the oath of office in January 2021.
 
It is highly likely that the full results of the election will not be known on Election Day, given the increase in absentee and vote-by-mail participation and the time is takes to accurately tabulate the results. In 2020, as much as 70% of all votes [ [link removed] ] were cast before Election Day. Current data trends indicate that early voting continues to be popular and is likely to remain a key part of the electoral process in the future. Some states allow canvassers to begin counting early and absentee votes before election day; others require them to wait until after the poll close. Moreover, some states, like Georgia, require the winning candidate to receive more than half of the votes, therefore it's possible (maybe probable) that the winner of the Senate seat in Georgia will not be known until after a runoff election in December.

States Face Health Care and Higher Education Questions on Upcoming Ballots
 
Election Day is around the corner, and on Nov. 8, voters in a handful of states will have the opportunity to decide state policy on several questions that will impact both health care and higher education.
 
In Massachusetts [ [link removed](2022) ] , Question 2 asks voters if dental insurers should be required to implement a medical loss ratio. If passed, dental insurers would be required to spend at least 83% of revenue [ [link removed] ] on patient care instead of administrative expenses. If insurers do not meet the medical loss ratio, they would be required to refund the excess premium to covered individuals and groups. The proposal would also direct the Massachusetts Division of Insurance Commissioner to approve or disapprove the rates of dental benefit plans. While the Affordable Care Act implemented medical loss ratios for health insurers, this would be the first law in the country to implement a medical loss ratio for dental insurers.
 
California [ [link removed](2022) ] voters will have the opportunity to decide if the state should uphold a ban on the sale of flavored tobacco products. In 2020, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed SB 793 [ [link removed] ] , which banned the sale of flavored tobacco products. The law has yet to go into effect, however, and tobacco manufacturers have successfully gathered enough signatures [ [link removed] ] to place a referendum of the law on the ballot. A “yes” vote would uphold the law, while a “no” vote would repeal the legislation.
 
In Arizona [ [link removed](2022) ] , voters will decide if graduates of Arizona high schools will be granted in-state tuition and financial aid, regardless of immigration status. If passed, the ballot initiative would overturn parts of a 2006 referendum that currently prohibits students who are undocumented from receiving in-state tuition and financial aid. There are potentially tens of thousands of students who could benefit [ [link removed] ] from the policy change.
 
Oregon [ [link removed](2022) ] voters will decide if the state should add a right to health care to the state’s constitution. If passed, the state would be required to provide residents with “access to cost-effective, clinically appropriate and affordable health care.” If passed, it’s unclear exactly what this first-of-its-kind amendment would mean to the state [ [link removed] ] . Supporters have stated that the amendment would result in little change to the state’s current health care system as the state would be able to make changes to the existing health care system to meet the goal. Opponents have argued that the amendment could have unintended consequences as the vagueness of the amendment text requirements of the state.
 
Finally, the electorate in South Dakota [ [link removed](2022) ] will decide if the state should expand Medicaid to include adults who earn up to 138% of the federal poverty level. Similar initiatives have passed in six other states [ [link removed] ] , and if passed by South Dakota, nearly 45,000 residents of the state could become eligible for coverage.

Governors and State Legislators Up for Election Throughout Most of the Country
 
Gubernatorial elections will be held in 36 states this year. Incumbents will be running for reelection in 28 states, while seats are open in eight. Prognosticators are predicting [ [link removed] ] party flips in Massachusetts and Maryland—both states where the current Republican governor is unable to run for re-election. The tightest gubernatorial races are expected in Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Oregon and Wisconsin. While the polling [ [link removed] ] in Maine, New Mexico and Georgia is not as tight, races in these states are also expected to be competitive.
 
Races in Georgia and Kansas could have an impact on Medicaid expansion. In Georgia, Democratic candidate for Governor, Stacy Abrams, has made a push for full Medicaid expansion [ [link removed] ] —a central part of her campaign, while incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has been focused on implementing a partial expansion [ [link removed]. ] of the program that includes a work requirement. In Kansas, incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly (D) has strongly supported Medicaid expansion, while her challenger, Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R), has demonstrated skepticism [ [link removed] ] toward the policy, but an openness if a proposal includes a work requirement.
 
Elections for state legislators will be held in 46 states [ [link removed] ] , and voters will have the opportunity to elect 6,279 members of legislatures. These will be the first elections held after decennial redistricting, which is expected to lead to increased competition where political geography has changed.

ADEA Advocacy in Action
This appears weekly in the ADEA Advocate to summarize and provide direct links to recent advocacy actions taken by ADEA. Please let us know what you think and how we might improve its usefulness.
 
Issues and Resources
 • Applications open [ [link removed] ] for HRSA Dental Public Health Research Fellowship
 • ADEA report [ [link removed] ] on teledentistry
 • ADEA report [ [link removed] ] on the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on U.S. Dental Schools
 • ADEA policy brief [ [link removed] ] regarding overprescription of antibiotics
 • For a full list of ADEA memos, briefs and letters click here [ [link removed] ] .

Key Federal Issues [ [link removed] ]

ADEA U.S. Interactive Legislative and Regulatory Tracking Map [ [link removed] ]

Key State Issues [ [link removed] ]

The ADEA Advocate [ [link removed] ] is published weekly. Its purpose is to keep ADEA members abreast of federal and state issues and events of interest to the academic dentistry and the dental and research communities.
 
©2022
American Dental Education Association
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Tel: 202-289-7201
Website: www.adea.org [ [link removed] ]

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B. Timothy Leeth, CPA
ADEA Chief Advocacy Officer
 
Bridgette DeHart, J.D.
ADEA Director of Federal Relations and Advocacy
 
Phillip Mauller, M.P.S.
ADEA Director of State Relations and Advocacy
 
Brian Robinson
ADEA Program Manager for Advocacy and Government Relations
 
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