Oct. 28, 2022
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Does Tulsi Gabbard have coattails?
By Robert Romano
On polls taken up to Oct. 17, Arizona Republican nominee for Governor Kari Lake was leading her opponent Katie Hobbs by 3 and 4 points respectively in Daily Wire/Trafalgar and Data for Progress polls. And then she got the endorsement of former Democratic U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, fresh off leaving the Democratic Party, on Oct. 18 in a Twitter post.
“For too long, establishment leaders from both parties have sought to enrich themselves, play games, and build up their power while ignoring and even enabling the suffering of millions of hard-working Americans,” Gabbard said in a press release, adding, “Kari Lake is a leader who puts people first, fighting for border security, energy independence, public safety, and other policies that actually make life better and more affordable for the American people.”
The next poll, the Fox 10/InsiderAdvantage poll taken Oct. 24 to Oct. 25, suddenly showed Lake leading Hobbs by 11 points in Arizona, 54 percent to 43 percent.
Does Tulsi Gabbard have coattails?
That might be a good question as the former Democrat hits the campaign trail for Republican gubernatorial and Senatorial candidates in Michigan, Nevada and New Hampshire in the final days of the 2022 elections.
The Fox 10/InsiderAdvantage Arizona poll could be a desert mirage, but Gabbard is worth consideration as a representative of swing voters who always determine the outcome of midterm election cycles, that is, elections two years after the race for the Presidency.
The tendency is for the White House incumbent party to lose seats pretty much everywhere up and down the ballot, losing seats in 90 percent of elections in the House and 70 percent in the Senate, with losses averaging about 35 seats in the House and 3 seats in the Senate.
Those are pretty good odds for Republicans since simply an average year for the GOP should enable them to retake House and Senate majorities from Democrats, simply because they only have a five seat majority in the House and no true majority in the Senate, which is split 50-50.
But what if there was also a sudden exodus of disaffected Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, led by Gabbard but also other major recent Democratic departures including new Twitter owner Elon Musk?
In states like Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New York, it can take an overwhelming advantage on independents but also cross-party voting by at least a few Democrats for Republicans to win majorities. It’s not always easy, but midterm cycles can help the opposition party and so even a deep blue state like New York could possibly come into play — given the correct ingredients.
Fortunately, there’s time to test Gabbard’s impact on these races, if any. Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon in Michigan and senatorial candidate Don Bolduc in New Hampshire have both been behind in their races prior to their recent Gabbard endorsements. If they suddenly start showing leads afterward, perhaps Gabbard effect could be very real, since nobody thought those races were competitive.
The caveat is this should be a really good year for Republicans no matter what, and so it admittedly harder to show undercurrents in the body politic.
But Gabbard’s role in these underdog races could be very interesting, especially if the Gabbard-endorsed races have wider margins of victory compared to the non-Gabbard races. The better those numbers are, the more interesting 2024 becomes. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2022/10/does-tulsi-gabbard-have-coattails/
Cartoon: Goodnight Everybody
By A.F. Branco
Click here for a higher level resolution version.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2022/10/cartoon-goodnight-everybody/
An Entire Generation of Students Left Behind
By David Potter
The consequences of closing schools for roughly two years during the COVID-19 pandemic, which required many K-12 students nationwide to participate in remote learning, are starting to become apparent. The 2022 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) found a significant decline in student proficiency of both reading and math among students in grade four and grade eight compared to 2019.
After most schools were closed throughout 2020, districts nationwide turned to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and their Operational Strategy for K-12 Schools through Phased Mitigation guidelines to determine when it would be appropriate to reopen schools in 2021. The CDC has a long-standing practice of keeping draft guidance documents confidential, but senior officials within the agency shared the draft with the second largest teacher’s union in the nation- the American Federation of Teachers (AFT). AFT played an unprecedented role in the development of the phased mitigation guidelines that deviates from the CDC’s Evidence-Based Guidelines standards.
According to a damning report from the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, the result of this CDC-AFT malfeasance was a set of guidelines intended to increase the likelihood of public schools remaining closed to in-person learning.
The actions of the AFT, which led to an increase in remote learning, and a decrease in on-site learning, may have been a contributing factor to the proficiency decline in math and reading among students in most states.
The decline in student proficiency in math amongst both fourth and eight graders, as measured by comparing the 2022 national average score to the 2019 national average score, was the largest declined ever recorded. Twenty-five percent of fourth grade students nationally scored below the NAEP Basic level of competency in math (an increase from nineteen percent in 2019). More substantial, thirty-eight percent of eight grade students nationally scored below the NAEP Basic level of proficiency in math. Although not as drastic, declines in NAEP Basic levels of reading proficiency were also recorded in both forth and eight graders.
Specifically, forty-three states saw a decrease in math proficiency amongst fourth graders, and all 50 states (along with the District of Columbia) saw a decrease in math proficiency amongst eighth graders, respectively. For reading, thirty states recorded a decrease in proficiency amongst fourth graders, and thirty-three states recorded a decrease in proficiency amongst eighth graders (an increase from thirty-one percent in 2019).
Contributing factors to the decline in proficiency during remote learning include: access levels to a computer (desktop, laptop, or tablet) at all times, availability of a quiet place at home that is conducive to focused work, availability of teacher assistance with homework, and, for eight graders, access levels to daily video lessons. As expected, students with higher levels of proficiency had greater access to the abovementioned. The inverse is true for students who demonstrate lower proficiency in test scores. Those students who were already disadvantaged were impacted more substantially.
Given these nationwide declines in student proficiency, and their correlation with increased remote learning during the pandemic, via the law of transitivity, a clear correlation also exists between Biden’s CDC allowing a teacher’s union to edit public health policy and the decline of student proficiency in math and reading.
CDC Director Rochelle Walensky served as a direct contact to AFT. According to the House Subcommittee’s findings, she was personally responsible for incorporating the health policy edits from the teachers union. Initially, the Operational Strategy for K-12 Schools through Phased Mitigation lacked a specific COVID-19 infection rate threshold to trigger school closures, but AFT advocated for a conservative threshold trigger, similar New York Cities’ school closure threshold, which closed schools if the Covid positivity rate exceeded three percent.
An entire cohort of youth is now lacking foundational proficiency in education more than past generations. The teachers union acted against the best interest of students nationwide, educationally speaking. While it’s unclear if their motives were for preserving the personal health of teachers, giving these teachers continued income with less work, a combination of both, or other factors, they never should have been allowed to create public health policy. The move politicized public health and is responsible for a whole generation of under-achievers with increased mental health issues.
The only question is will Congress hold those who allowed politics to override sound policy responsible?
David Potter is a contributing editor at Americans for Limited Government.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2022/10/students-struggle-after-teachers-union-interfered/