Hi friend,

First off, I want you to vote. So take that as an official reminder!

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Second, I want to take a brief moment to talk about the Congressional Progressive Caucus and their release (and subsequent retraction) of a letter calling for "immediate negotiations to achieve peace in Ukraine."?

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You can read a bit more here, if you missed the controversy.

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So, having been a diplomat, and then a defense analyst at RAND, I can tell you that this was a terrible message, with terrible timing, and I commend the Progressive Caucus for realizing that promptly and retracting it. I'm going to break down how I think about the letter (and the conflict), to give you some insight into how I think about these issues.?

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First, let's make clear the U.S. position:

1. The United States desires peace in Ukraine, and it strongly opposes any escalation from Russia due to Russian failures in Ukraine.
   
   
2. The US decided to support Ukraine out of fear that Russian success in Ukraine would lead to further Russian aggression (just as giving Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany made WW2 more likely, rather than less).
   
   
3. The Biden Administration has consistently messaged that our aid will continue until Russia withdraws (preferable) - or is defeated.
   
   
4. The GOP said last week that they would consider ceasing support for Ukraine if they win in November.
   
   
5. The CPC letter further undermines US credibility by throwing 30 members of the left in with the GOP -- implying that opposition to Ukraine aid is bipartisan.
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Second, let's think about Putin's position, and I say Putin because he is THE key Russian decision-maker. Russia as a whole may not want to be in Ukraine, but Russia is not a democracy.

1. Putin thought this war would be quick and relatively painless.
   
   
2. The Russian Army failed a Blitzkrieg in February and the artillery-supported advance of early summer (an attack far more in line wit Soviet doctrine) has stalled - and now Russians are losing ground to Ukrainian counter-attacks.
   
3. Losing in Ukraine risks Putin's domestic political position
   
   
4. Escalating beyond Ukraine ALSO risks Putin's domestic political position (Would the military execute a suicidal nuclear strike on Western Europe? Would Russian political elites tolerate a tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine?)
   
   
5. If Putin thinks that US commitment to supplying Ukraine is weak, he will push fighting until at least the new Congress is seated, and will try to escalate in January (with a new Congress) to test US resolve.
   
   
6. Basically, the letter makes the US look weak, and Putin will try to hit Ukraine/pressure the US to see if he can "break" the US.
   
   

Third, let's look at the Ukrainian position:

1. They were not consulted on the letter!
   
   
2. Now they're not sure if they can depend on the US - either politically or in terms of further military assistance.

To summarize, it's a terrible letter and should never have been released. It will encourage Putin to keep fighting, it makes opposition to Ukraine assistance seem bipartisan (when it is mostly a GOP position), and it drives a wedge between us and the Ukrainians (and the Ukrainians are the good guys!). Putin will only stop fighting when it is clear he CANNOT win. This letter will give him hope.

Remember to vote!

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Max
Democrat and Combat Veteran for Congress

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