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Tuesday, October 25, 2022
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1.
GOP Gaining Ground in Key Gubernatorial Races
Daily Wire: Nevada Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak is trailing his GOP opponent by nearly six points in a new InsiderAdvantage/American Greatness poll almost two weeks out from Election Day. Sisolak has struggled to overcome significant Democratic headwinds in the final weeks of his campaign for re-election. Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, his Republican opponent, has run even with or beaten Sisolak in every poll since August, according to a tracker by FiveThirtyEight. The election analysis outlet has Lombardo leading Sisolak 46% to 44.4% in its polling average. The poll measured Lombardo’s support at 48.5% and Sisolak’s at 42.8% (Daily Wire). Just the News: Michigan GOP gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon is now tied with Democrat incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, less than three weeks before Election Day, according to a new poll. The Michigan News Source/Trafalgar poll released Sunday shows Dixon with 47.9% of the vote, compared to 48.4% for Whitmer (Just the News).

2.
Poll Shows Republicans Believe Ron DeSantis Has More Influence Over GOP Than Donald Trump

Washington Examiner: More Republicans believe Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis should have a “great deal” of influence over the party compared to former President Donald Trump, highlighting a seeming shift in loyalty ahead of the 2024 presidential election. About 72% of Republican voters say DeSantis should have a great deal or good amount of influence over the party’s direction compared to 64% who said the same about Trump according to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll. Democrats have a more expansive pool of politicians they want to have an influence over the party, with 81% wanting former President Barack Obama guiding the party, followed by President Joe Biden (69%), Vice President Kamala Harris (65%), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (63%), and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (56%) (Washington Examiner).

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3.
Polling Shows Republicans Making Strides in Three Vital Swing States

Washington Examiner: With the midterm homestretch underway, Republicans appear to have momentum on their side in their quest to flip the Senate as three states move in their direction in a key forecast. RealClearPolitics’s Senate projection recently moved three battleground Senate races to the GOP: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has tightened its projections for the Senate amid a deluge of polling showing the Republicans gaining ground. FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 45% chance of winning the Senate, which diverges from RealClearPolitics’s projection that the GOP will secure a 53 to 47 seat majority in the lower chamber. Both forecasts project that Republicans are favored to win the House. Given the 50 to 50 split in the Senate, the GOP only needs to win one seat to secure the upper chamber  (Washington Examiner). Nate Silver: Was a bit skeptical of the GOP poll surge before, but I think the evidence for it is now pretty convincing, and if anything I’m more bearish on Democratic chances than our model is (Twitter). Interactive Polls: RCP Generic Ballot Polling Average. Pre Dobbs: Republicans 44.3% (+2.8) Democrats 41.5%. TODAY: Republicans 48.1% (+3.3) Democrats 44.8% (Twitter).

4.
John Fetterman Campaign Sends Memo to Reporters Stating a Debate Stage is Not His Format

Daily Wire: The campaign behind Pennsylvania Lt. Governor John Fetterman’s bid for the Senate admitted on Monday that expectations for the Democratic nominee are low as he prepares to debate his Republican rival, Dr. Mehmet Oz. In an email to reporters, the Fetterman campaign acknowledged that “this isn’t John’s format,” arguing Oz has a distinct advantage because of his career as a television host (Daily Wire). Townhall: The ultimate momentum has come in the past few days, with one Fox 29/Insider Advantage poll showing the candidates tied and another poll from Wick Insights even showing Dr. Oz ahead. The poll shows Dr. Oz leading with 49.1 percent of the vote among likely voters, compared to Fetterman’s 44.6 percent (Townhall). Cinyc: Wick Insights PA Poll: Oz 49.1% Fetterman 44.6% Someone Else 3.4% (Twitter).

5.
Arizona Democratic Candidate Katie Hobbs Runs Away From Debating Kari Lake

Katie Pavlich: Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is again slamming Democratic opponent and Secretary of State Katie Hobbs after she refused to show up for a long held debate on Sunday evening. Earlier in the day Hobbs was pressed by reporters about why she’s refusing to get on the debate stage and explain her positions to the voters. Hobbs bumbled through her answers, claiming she’s doing enough to get her message out through interviews (Townhall). Kari Lake: As you can see, @katiehobbs did not attend the @AZCCEC debate today. In doing so, Katie put a permanent end to a 20-year tradition that was so loved by the people of Arizona. Katie Hobbs is a Debate Denier and a coward (Twitter). Trafalgar Group: 49.2% @KariLake 46.4% @katiehobbs (Twitter).

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6.
Marco Rubio Staffer Viciously Attacked by Four Assailants While Canvassing for Senator

Daily Caller: Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida claimed that multiple assailants attacked and seriously injured a canvasser backing the senator Sunday night. Hileah police arrested one suspect Monday, according to the Miami Herald. Rubio posted photos of the canvasser wearing a T-shirt from the Rubio campaign on a gurney that loaded him onto an ambulance (Daily Caller). Marco Rubio: Last night one of our canvassers wearing my T-shirt and a Desantis hat was brutally attacked by 4 animals who told him Republicans weren’t allowed in their neighborhood in Hialeah Florida. He suffered internal bleeding, a broken jaw & will need facial reconstructive surgery (Twitter).

7.
New York DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney Election Rebranded as “Toss Up”; Democrats Increase Spending by $600,000
Democrats hurl money into unexpected close race to save one of their key leaders. Townhall: Monday’s rating change from Cook Political Report brought a devastating blow to Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) as he’s currently chairing the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC). The rating, once “Lean Democratic,” is now at “Toss Up” in Rep. Maloney’s race against his Republican opponent, Assemblyman Michael Lawler (Townhall). Dave Wasserman: But two weeks out from Election Day, Maloney finds himself in deep danger, simultaneously fighting for his political life in his Hudson Valley seat and desperately trying to prevent Democrats from being swept out of the House majority (Cook Political Report). Politico: The Maloney-run Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will spend just over $600,000 on air cover for him starting Tuesday as he battles challenger Michael Lawler in a more-competitive-than-expected race. That money is on top of $110,000 in support on TV from another outside group (Politico).

8.
Governor DeSantis and Charlie Crist Debate

Washington Examiner: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Charlie Crist (D-FL) slugged it out in Florida’s sole gubernatorial debate, hitting one another on everything from the economy to the pandemic to the social issues that have roiled the state (Washington Examiner). Townhall: @GovRonDeSantis on whether or not he’s running for president in 2024: “I know that Charlie is interested in talking about 2024 and Joe Biden. But I just want to make things very, very clear, the only worn-out, old donkey I’m looking to put out to pasture is Charlie Crist” (Twitter). Journalist Scott Morefield: Charlie Crist apparently sent Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis a letter in July 2020 demanding a statewide Covid lockdown. The best decision of DeSantis’ political career was ignoring that letter, and he’s reaping the political fruits now (Twitter).

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9.
Majority of the $122 Billion Allocated to Opening Schools Has Gone Unused
Washington Post: In March 2021, the Biden administration released the federal government’s largest pool of pandemic relief for public schools. The American Rescue Plan infused campuses with $122 billion to reopen buildings, address mental health needs and help students who had fallen behind academically. The need was so urgent that two-thirds of the money — $81 billion — was released less than two weeks after the plan was signed into law and before the Education Department could approve each state’s spending plan. But despite having access to the dollars, school systems throughout the country reported spending less than 15 percent of the federal funding during the 2021-2022 school year (Washington Post).

10.
Russia Accuses Ukraine of Planning to Utilize a “Dirty Bomb”; West Fears a “False Flag” Operation

Reuters: The United States warned on Monday there would be severe consequences if Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, as Western countries accused Moscow of plotting to escalate the war on the pretext that Kyiv was planning to deploy a “dirty bomb” laced with nuclear material. With Ukrainian forces advancing into Russian-occupied Kherson province, top Russian officials phoned Western counterparts on Sunday and Monday to tell them of Moscow’s suspicions. Russia plans to raise the issue at the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday, diplomats said. The foreign ministers of France, Britain and the United States rejected the allegations and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine (Reuters). NBC: Ukraine and its allies have vociferously rejected the Russian accusations, countering that, in fact, the Kremlin’s public claims suggest it is seeking to build a pretext for an escalation, and may be planning a “false flag” operation in which it blames Kyiv for its own actions (NBC).

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