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Israeli navy vessels off the coast of Rosh Hanikra, an area at the border between Israel and Lebanon, on June 6, 2022. (Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images)

Commentators in the United States and Israel have hailed the agreement on the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon, which the Biden administration brokered, as a great success. They liken it to the Abraham Accords and claim that it is a major step toward normalizing relations between the Jewish State and a historic Arab foe. In a recent Hudson policy memo [[link removed]], Senior Fellow Michael Doran [[link removed]] debunks seven myths to explain why this view is wrong. Below are some highlights.

Read the 7 Myths and Realities [[link removed]]

Key Insights

Myth 1: “The agreement will make Lebanon less dependent on Iran.”

Lebanon is famously corrupt and controlled by Hezbollah, which in turn is controlled by Iran. The usual cronies will divide the money among themselves, and Hezbollah will get its share. Enriching the fictitiously independent state of Lebanon without enriching Hezbollah and Iran is impossible. So the agreement will not reduce Hezbollah’s grip on the government in any way.

Myth 2: “Israel needs this agreement to proceed with the exploitation of the Karish field.”

Energean, the company that Israel contracted to develop the Karish gas field, began its work when it looked as if there would never be a deal with Lebanon, and it continued to work when Hezbollah threatened war. From a commercial point of view, the agreement was irrelevant. The world is replete with examples of companies that exploit gas fields within undelimited or even highly disputed exclusive economic zones (EEZs). When deciding where to work, the companies rely on the security and financial assurances of their host countries, not on international agreements. Lawyers from the United Nations never saved workers on a gas rig caught in the crossfire of hostile militaries.

Myth 3: “The deal is a major defeat for Hezbollah and Iran.”

Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have every right to celebrate this agreement as a major victory. A “historic achievement,” is how Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem described the demarcation agreement on October 15. “The Resistance [Hezbollah] had a great impact on securing the maritime oil and gas rights for Lebanon,” he continued. “This matter would not have happened without the solidarity between the state and the Resistance.” Who can argue with that assessment? Hezbollah received everything that it demanded within the timeline that it set. Israel made every conceivable concession; Lebanon made none. Supercharged American mediation rewarded Hezbollah for threatening war.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

Read the 7 Myths and Realities [[link removed]] Go Deeper

Seven Myths about the Iran Nuclear Deal [[link removed]]

As President Joe Biden prepares to bring the US back into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and as the public, the press, and Congress consider the deal’s terms, Hudson’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East identifies the seven most pernicious myths [[link removed]] about the Iran nuclear deal and explain the reality.

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Iranian Drone and Missile Proliferation: What Are Iran’s Ambitions? [[link removed]]

Russia’s growing use of Iranian-made kamikaze drones to kill civilians in Ukraine surprised many European and American observers who were unaware that Iranian weapons have advanced considerably in recent years. But for Middle East observers, Iranian advances in missiles and drones are unsurprising. Hudson Senior Fellows Michael Doran [[link removed]], Luke Coffey [[link removed]], Peter Rough [[link removed]], and Can Kasapoğlu [[link removed]] recently discussed this topic.

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Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Agreement: A Historic Deal or Another Mistake? [[link removed]]

The Biden administration forced Jerusalem to make concessions to Hezbollah to resolve the Israel-Lebanon maritime border dispute. Senior Fellow Michael Doran [[link removed]] talked with Yuval Steinitz, former Israeli minister of energy, and Tony Badran, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, about the recent agreement.

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