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**OCTOBER 21, 2022**
Kuttner on TAP
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**** Is the 2022 Midterm Lost to Dems?
Not if we ignore the pack-rat punditry and take a closer look.
Judging by polls and pundit stories all week, it's over: The election
was veering towards Democrats in late summer, but the favorable trends
peaked too early. Dobbs looked to help Democrats bigtime, but that was
then. Now voters are focused on the economy, which favors Republicans.
Biden did achieve some real economic gains, but people don't seem to
care. Particular races are breaking wrong. Democrats could lose both
houses of Congress.
But this view is vastly oversimplified. For starters, it is based on
misleading polls. The worst was the normally reliable New York
Times/Siena poll
<[link removed]>,
released Monday, which showed a modest swing to Republicans. But the
poll, which under-sampled women, also showed a 32-point swing of
independent women to Republicans. After Dobbs, how can anyone believe
that? See this excellent debunking by Joan Walsh
<[link removed]>.
Pollster Anna Greenberg
<[link removed]>
told The New Republic, "I am skeptical that Democrats and Republicans
are breaking even among women. I'm looking at it right now.
Forty-seven [percent] Dem, 47 Republican. Have we ever since the '90s
had a situation where women didn't vote more Democratic than men
did?"
The Times poll
<[link removed]>
led to even more overstated
<[link removed]>
Times stories, and several copycat pieces, all contending that
Republicans had something close to a lock. For starters, this bleak
analysis sidesteps the most important variable in this election, which
is turnout.
The supposed fading of Dobbs as motivator makes a nice new morning line,
but it's almost surely wrong. Turnout of women is likely to be high. TV
ads, like this one from Eric Swalwell which went viral
<[link removed]>, will saturate the
airwaves and social media in the final weeks.
In Georgia, voting in the first two days of early voting (both by mail
and in person) were 70 percent higher than in the high-turnout, heavily
Democratic 2018 election, and African Americans were voting at a higher
rate than whites.
Democrats may finally get their act together in talking about the
economy
<[link removed]>-and
Republicans are helping them, by announcing their plans to cut Social
Security and Medicare.
<[link removed]>
Yes, several key senate races will be heartbreakingly close, notably
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada. But there are possible
offsets.
In Utah, Evan McMullin, an independent backed by Democrats, is running
almost even with Republican incumbent Mike Lee. McMullin says if
elected, he will caucus with neither party. Even if Democrats lose a
seat, that could deny Republicans control of the Senate.
In Iowa, a doddering Chuck Grassley-who is older at 89 than Biden will
be if he completes a second term-is barely ahead of his Democratic
challenger, retired Admiral Mike Franken, a one-time aide to Ted
Kennedy. In the latest Iowa poll
<[link removed]>,
which shows Grassley just three points ahead of Franken and losing
ground, 60 percent of all voters and 64 percent of independents say
Grassley's age is a concern. And abortion rights
<[link removed]>
are a big deal in Iowa, supported by 60 percent of voters.
It ain't over till it's over.
~ ROBERT KUTTNER
To receive this newsletter directly in your inbox, click here to
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Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter <[link removed]>
[link removed]
Want to Know What's Going On in Our Economy? Talk to Workers.
<[link removed]>
We don't survey how workers feel about their jobs. We'd learn a lot
if we did. BY MICHAEL MITCHELL
Conservative Judicial Ruling Threatens Functioning of Daily Life
<[link removed]>
The attempt to make the CFPB unconstitutional has grave consequences. BY
DAVID DAYEN
[link removed]
How Manchin Capitalized on Being at the Center of the IRA Debate
<[link removed]>
The senator formed a new fundraising vehicle that lets him solicit
larger contribution checks. BY DONALD SHAW
A Memo to Democrats <[link removed]>
[link removed] We will
win this election if we convince voters we care about their economic
well-being. BY PATRICK GASPARD, STANLEY B. GREENBERG, CELINDA LAKE, MIKE
LUX
Donate to TAP's Midterm Tracker Travel Fund
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to send our reporters to cover elections around the country. You can
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