Dear MoveOn member,
The New York Times released a major new poll yesterday showing a swing toward Republican congressional candidates and Republicans now in the lead.1
This is the fourth high-quality poll in recent days to show Republicans now in the lead. The others were done by ABC/Washington Post, CBS/YouGov, and Monmouth University.2
The New York Times poll found that 49% of likely voters say they plan to vote for a Republican for Congress, compared with 45% who plan to vote for a Democrat. In September, Democrats were ahead by one point.3
John, Democrats hold the House by the narrowest of majorities, and the Senate is 50-50, so the Democrats have no ground to lose.
If Republicans win control of the House, Kevin McCarthy is reportedly poised to elevate Marjorie Taylor Greene and give her "prized committee assignments."4 Last month, when McCarthy unveiled his agenda for the midterms, Greene sat directly behind him. And she's apparently in high demand among Republican candidates on the campaign trail and has become a major fundraiser for the party.5
Remember, House Republicans gave Greene a standing ovation early last year when she justified her support for QAnon and other conspiracy theories.6
That's the Republican Party we're dealing with. The Republican Party that's poised to take over Congress.
And that's where MoveOn comes in. To replicate our success beating Trump in 2020 and to defeat dangerous MAGA candidates this year, MoveOn is executing a state-of-the-art, evidence-based get-out-the-vote campaign to identify and turn out the critical voters we'll need to win in November.
With only 20 days left until the polls close, will you chip in $3 a week from now until Election Day to power MoveOn's work to turn out the precise voters we'll need to win this election? (MoveOn will bill your weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and will contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify or cancel your weekly donation.)
No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.
John, MoveOn's science-backed get-out-the-vote program has been years in the making.
We don't throw spaghetti against the wall. And we don't mindlessly listen to high-priced D.C. consultants for political advice.
Instead, MoveOn employs a first-rate in-house analytics team with top data scientists and analytics experts who have advanced degrees in the field. Between them, our team has dozens of years of technical experience building sophisticated predictive models.
And this year, our in-house team of data scientists built a rare model to identify the voters we'll need to turn out to win. And then they worked to figure out the right messages and methods to communicate with these critical voters.
We're now working with thousands of volunteers from MoveOn's national membership who are reaching out to these voters, mobilizing them, and helping us win precinct by precinct in the most critical states.
For example, we know that young voters get most of their news online, and so our team has put together highly targeted digital ads to reach voters through apps, websites, and social media. But many older voters are still best reached best through the good old U.S. Postal Service, so MoveOn is using snail mail as well.
Our methods are proven to be effective. But with voting already underway, we have no time to waste.
Please donate $3 a week—or whatever you can—from today until Election Day to help power our work to stop Trump's election deniers from taking over our democracy. (MoveOn will bill your weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and will contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify or cancel your weekly donation.)
No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.
Thanks for all you do.
–Chris, Casey, Anne, Ankur, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds," The New York Times, October 17, 2022
https://act.moveon.org/go/169032?t=6&akid=336113%2E40999114%2EvdOrfG
2. "NYT/Siena Poll Is Latest to Show Republican Gains," The New York Times, October 17, 2022
https://act.moveon.org/go/169033?t=8&akid=336113%2E40999114%2EvdOrfG
3. "Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds," The New York Times, October 17, 2022
https://act.moveon.org/go/169032?t=10&akid=336113%2E40999114%2EvdOrfG
4. "The Problem of Marjorie Taylor Greene," The New York Times Magazine, October 17, 2022
https://act.moveon.org/go/169034?t=12&akid=336113%2E40999114%2EvdOrfG
5. Ibid.
6. Ibid.
Want to support MoveOn's work? Donald Trump and his MAGA allies are methodically enacting a plan to place some of Trump's most ardent supporters in key election offices that oversee vote counting, have the power to certify—or decertify—election results, and declare election winners and losers. We've launched a powerful, multimillion-dollar campaign to stop Trump. But we need your help to power our effort.
Will you chip in $3 weekly to power our campaign to defeat Trump cronies this November and elect officials who will count each and every vote? (MoveOn will bill your weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and will contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify or cancel your weekly donation.)
No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.
PAID FOR BY MOVEON
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