One of the most important questions facing our society right now is whether declining rates of marriage and fertility are the result of changing preferences or of economic pressures. The “two-income trap,” housing and child care costs, and student loan debt have all been blamed for people delaying or forgoing getting married or having children. 

But some of the better research out there suggests that when it comes to declining fertility, it’s not simply “the economy, stupid.” Certainly some, perhaps even many, couples may be dissuaded from forming a family by the high cost of living. But the evidence suggests that the decline in parenthood isn’t explained by rising out-of-pocket costs, such as food, diapers, or housing, so much as the opportunity cost of parenthood. What would-be parents have to give up, in the form of forgone job opportunities or educational attainment, seems less appealing than what they’d get with a ring and a baby carriage.