Journalists and fact-checkers in Brazil are concerned about the state of fact-checking in the country, both in the political attacks they face and in fact-checking’s ability to affect outcomes.
“Since 2018, we've been attacked by president Bolsonaro and his supporters due to our fact-checking and verification efforts,” said Tai Nalon, executive director and co-founder of Aos Fatos, a Brazilian fact-checking organization. “Specifically, we’ve been threatened with judicial abuse from his supporters.”
Polls also demonstrated lower predictive ability in Brazil, with results in some races deviating by as much as 30 points.
Respected pollsters showed former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 14 points ahead of current President Jair Bolsonaro in the days leading up to the Oct. 2 election. While Lula secured 48% of the vote, just shy of a majority, it was not enough to clinch the election and only five points more than Bolsonaro’s 43% — a substantial departure from the polling.
The same dynamic played out in other races across Brazil — polls proved inaccurate, largely underestimating right-wing candidates, or “Bolsonaristas.” Expert explanations of this trend mostly contend that many people do not decide their votes until Election Day.
“It's difficult to understand. There are many pollsters with many different methodologies that didn't get a last minute wave towards Bolsonaro, but I feel that's because people are only sure about their decisions at the last minute,” said Tai Nalon, “It sounds obvious, but it's not. What are the incentives in a very polarized society to choose right away who to vote for, if nothing is supposed to change? Of course there are a lot more factors, but sometimes people are just paying attention to something else.”
Courts have been forcing candidates to remove false and misleading information from social media, though at a pace far outmatched by the circulation of misinformation itself.
“The Electoral Court justices have been demanding campaigns and candidates remove misleading posts from social media platforms,” Nalon said. “However, timing is their enemy. Many of their decisions are already outdated when published because disinformation spreads fast, gaining traction on WhatsApp or Telegram.”
Aos Fatos’s fact checks have previously been censored by Brazilian courts, including two fact checks on Brazilian publication Revista Oeste. Last year, a Brazilian judge ruled that Aos Fatos had to remove references to Revista Oeste, after the paper brought them to court, claiming the fact checks created financial issues.
“Disinformation comes from the top, as Bolsonaro makes false statements and amplifies conspiracy theories from small, extremist groups,” Nalon said. “But misinformation is also more fragmented, as social media platforms and apps, such as Telegram, TikTok, Kwai, Gettr are more popular.”
Nalon added that, “it's clear that, compared to 2018's election, misinformation in video is much more prevalent.”
The runoff will take place Oct. 30. Although pundits and polling have Lula winning, if Brazil’s election track record has taught us anything, don’t bet on it.
|
