- Los Angeles Mayoral candidate and Republican-until-three-minutes-ago Rick Caruso, insisting he is not white. Good luck with that, Rick!

The state of the economy is complicated to depict, but you wouldn’t know that from most major news coverage, which fixates on simplistic, misleading binaries: “good” or “bad,” “bull” or “bear.”
 

• First, the labor market remains strong. The economy added 263,000 in September, fewer than in recent months but still higher than the pre-pandemic normal. Unemployment is at 3.5 percent, the lowest level in 50 years. Consequently, employers are holding on to their workers for dear life, and that trend is expected to continue even after the economy cools. 
   

• The average interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose to its highest level since 2006 according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. Mortgage rates have more than doubled since the beginning of the year as the Federal Reserve increases interest rates aggressively to combat inflation. Consequently, loan applications have fallen precipitously as have homebuilding and sales. However, home prices remain high even as house price growth slows, eroding affordability for buyers still competing rabidly due to massive housing shortage. The Federal Reserve’s sole crude tool of interest-rate adjustments will likely do nothing to alleviate the housing crisis, and may even exacerbate it by making it more expensive to finance new construction.
   

• Ever-rising rents and housing costs likely played a considerable role in the September jump in consumer prices. The consumer price index will be released tomorrow, and will be closely watched to assess whether the Federal Reserve’s dramatic and repeated rate increases are having their intended outcomes. But as with the housing market, many factors contributing to inflation, such as supply chain issues and corporate greed, are unrelated to interest rates and unaffected by increases to them. But if the Fed doesn’t see the numbers it wants to see reflected in the CPI, interest-rate increases may continue, which could actually have a counterproductive effect.

Republicans are, of course, using all this complexity as a weapon (though they’d presumably shout “BIDEN’S DISASTROUS ECONOMY!” no matter how good the news was).

• Here’s what else they’re working with: The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that consumers in the United States are expected to pay up to 28 percent more to heat their homes this winter than last year due to surging fuel costs and slightly colder weather. This will add considerable strain to the nearly half of American households that rely on natural gas for heating. The majority of Americans see prices as beyond Biden’s control, but still continue to disapprove of his handling of the economy.
   

• Here’s what they’re ignoring/lying about: Beyond the strong labor market and low unemployment rate, markets have crept up despite new worries about increased interest rates. Also, supply chain problems are showing signs of easing. Not for nothing, 55 percent of Americans say they approve of Biden’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and 63 percent approve of his handling of natural-disaster relief following Hurricane Ian.
   

James Carville coined the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid,” back in 1992; it’s a great slogan for an out-party challenger but (relatedly) it crushes nuance to emphasize bad news. The truth is in the shades of grey (though, for sure, most of us are quite stupid).

Your favorite podcast, Wind Of Change, is back for a special bonus episode! When Patrick Radden Keefe heard that the Scorpions were coming to town last month, he knew he had to go to the show. So he called his friend Michael, his source for the original CIA conspiracy theory, and they headed to UBS Arena on Long Island, microphones in hand. Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year, the song Wind of Change has taken on new meaning -- and new lyrics, courtesy of lead-singer Klaus Meine. Patrick wanted to feel first hand how the powerful ballad of hope sounded in this new context of Russian aggression. 

Tune into the Wind Of Change bonus episode, “Scorpions Live from New York,” now wherever you get your podcasts and join us in raising funds for medical supplies in Ukraine by donating to United24.

A handful of Republicans in New England have a chance of winning in a region where congressional Republicans have long been on the endangered-species list. Republican candidates in Maine, New Hampshire, and Connecticut have the advantages challengers enjoy, but these New England Republicans have additional wind at their backs thanks to a “perfect storm” of high energy and food costs and the rise of fentanyl in New England communities, which GOP candidates are exploiting and blaming on a lack of southern border security. No House Republican has represented New England since Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-ME) back in 2018, but Republicans have long had a strong, covert presence in the region. Still, it may be an uphill battle for New England Republicans (thank God) because voters may know that even candidates who portray themselves as “moderate” can’t really be moderate in the climate of extremism that dominates today’s Republican Party.

Professional conspiracy theorist and all-around vile ghoul Alex Jones was ordered to pay a total of $965 million to the families of eight Sandy Hook families who lost children in the 2012 massacre, as well as an FBI agent who responded to the attack, for defamation and intentional infliction of emotional distress. 

Disgraced former president Trump will have to sit for a deposition in the defamation lawsuit lodged by longtime New York columnist E. Jean Carroll, whom Trump called a liar while he was in office after she accused him of sexual assault in the mid-1990’s. 

In a follow-up from a story we covered the other day, the White House has officially gotten involved in the Los Angeles City Council scandal, calling for all officials caught on tape making racist remarks to resign. City Council President Nury Martinez, who is at the center of the scandal, announced her resignation from the body today.

Tomorrow’s series finale January 6 Committee televised hearing is expected to highlight newly-obtained records showing that President Trump was repeatedly alerted to the violence brewing that day, yet he still chose to stoke the flames. 

A Missouri federal judge is hearing arguments today on whether to halt the Biden administration from moving forward with student debt cancellation for more than 40 million Americans. 

A Michigan MAGA “activist”, Genevieve Peters, who promoted the Big Lie has resurfaced, and was hired in an office that helps administer local elections in Macomb County, MI. Sounds bad!

The United States and its NATO allies reaffirmed their commitment to long-term support for Ukraine today amid escalating violence from Russia. 

At the United Nations General Assembly today, 143 member nations voted to condemn Russia’s illegal annexation of four Ukrainian territories. 

Elon Musk launched a perfume called, I shit you not, “Burnt Hair.” Someone for the love of God please tax this man so he can’t hurt us anymore.

A Trump employee has told federal agents that the disgraced former president himself directed aides to moving boxes of stolen documents at Mar-a-Lago after the government had subpoenaed them. The witness account, corroborated by security camera footage, offers key evidence of Trump’s behavior as investigators sought to obtain the classified materials he would not return. This is the most direct account (and most unimpeachable evidence) to date of Trump’s criminal actions and instructions leading up to the FBI’s August 8 search of his Florida residence. Naturally, Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich declined to answer any questions about this new evidence, instead only saying, “The Biden administration has weaponized law enforcement and fabricated a Document Hoax in a desperate attempt to retain political power.” Perfect Trump response. Thank you Taylor, no notes.

Crooked x Cariuma: Double the brands, double the impact.

A limited-edition collab with our favorite shoe brand is here.

You know we’re all about voting: doing it, registering people to do it, and of course giving a portion of the proceeds from the Crooked Store to VoteRiders to help inform citizens of their state’s voter ID requirements and secure them the documents they may need to vote. 
 

Why not add wearing shoes that support voting to that list?
 

Just in time for canvassing season, we’re excited to announce that Crooked and Cariuma have collaborated to launch our own co-branded OCA low-tops, in two designs that we think you’ll really love.

Choose from a clean white sneaker with the words “No Steps Back,” or our patented “I voted” sticker print. They’re both perfect for peaceful protests, voter registration drives, and/or grabbing bagels (heroes have to eat, too).

These shoes don’t just support VoteRiders (and your arches). Like all Cariuma shoes, they’re ethically and sustainably made from organic cotton canvas, natural rubber, cork, and recycled plastics, and your pair plants two trees in the Brazilian rainforest through Cariuma’s in-house Ecological Restoration program.

Be sure to snag your pair now before they sell out!

Scientists have successfully transplanted and grown human brain cells into the brains of baby rats, a breakthrough in studying diseases that affect human brain development like autism and schizophrenia. Weird! But okay cool!

A Minneapolis Trump supporter pleaded guilty to wire fraud after officials say he staged a fire and spray-painted antifa graffiti (and the sayings “Biden 2020” and “BLM”) on his own garage, then blamed it all on “left-wing radicals.” Bad things happening to bad people? We love to see it. 

Former Nevada Attorney General and GOP Senate nominee Adam Laxalt comes from a Nevada political dynasty. Fourteen members of his family have endorsed his Democratic opponent, incumbent. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). Man, that’s gotta hurt.