[The stakes could hardly be higher, and campaigners on both sides
are scrambling ahead of referendums in Kentucky, Montana, California,
Vermont and Michigan. Can Kansas inspire other pro-choice wins? ]
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VOTERS IN THESE FIVE STATES ARE VOTING ON ABORTION ON NOVEMBER 8  
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Poppy Noor
October 7, 2022
The Guardian
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_ The stakes could hardly be higher, and campaigners on both sides
are scrambling ahead of referendums in Kentucky, Montana, California,
Vermont and Michigan. Can Kansas inspire other pro-choice wins? _

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When Kansans voted overwhelmingly to protect abortion this summer,
the 59-41 referendum margin
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the deep-red state sent shockwaves through the country, inspiring
pro-choice advocates and sending anti-abortion campaigners scrambling
for an unexpected political dogfight as five similar ballot
initiatives approach in November.

The abortion referendums – in Kentucky, Montana, California
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– have seen both sides organize extensive campaigns.

In Kentucky and Montana, red like Kansas
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anti-abortion advocates who brought the initiatives with the aim of
removing abortion protections from state constitutions.

They say the Kansas loss was an outlier because the language on the
ballot in 
[[link removed]]that
referendum was too confusing 
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result to be reflective of Kansans’ will. Hoping to avoid the same
fate, the Kentucky ballot will ask voters to agree with the statement:
“Nothing in this constitution shall be construed to secure or
protect a right to abortion or require the funding of abortion.”

Although Kentucky is reliably Republican, its supreme court – which
will decide, a week after the referendum, whether the state’s
current abortion ban is viable – does not yet clearly lean one way
on abortion rights.

“The stakes are kind of like they were in Kansas,” said Rachel
Rebouché, the dean of Temple University’s school of law. “You
have a red state with a history of anti-abortion legislation – and
if the electorate says no to this ballot, it will send a clear signal
that there’s a disconnect between the voters and the state and the
legislators, who would otherwise pass anti-abortion laws.”

She cautioned, however, that it was not clear Kentuckians will turn
out to vote in the same way Kansans did. Kentucky’s electorate also
skews more conservative on reproductive rights, with a 12-point
margin
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those who want abortion to be mostly legal and mostly illegal,
according to the New York Times (though that analysis appeared to
undercount the support for abortion in Kansas, predicting a
neck-and-neck race that was far from the 18-point margin that
materialized in August).

“There is the general sense that [Kentucky] is a harder fight.
People suspect the ballot initiative will be successful, or if it
fails, it won’t be by as wide a margin as in Kansas,” says
Rebouché.

In Montana, Republicans are pushing a more confusingly worded measure,
stating that “infants born alive after an abortion, are legal
persons”, and threatening medical providers with up to 20 years in
prison and fines of up to $50,000.

Montana’s supreme court has ruled that the state constitution’s
right to privacy protects the right to abortion, so a yes vote for
this ballot would not explicitly ban the procedure.

But experts worry the wording of the ballot could confuse people in a
red state where the electorate, like in Kansas, is nonetheless largely
in favor of abortion rights.

“The bill is intended to incrementally change the narrative – to
recognize fetal personhood and to limit abortion because it demands
doctors provide care to ‘infants born alive after an abortion’,”
said legal historian Mary Ziegler from UC Davis.

“This wording is intended to make pro-choice groups look extreme if
they campaign against the bill.”

Two abortion ballots where a pro-choice result seems almost certain
are in California and Vermont, where abortion rights groups are hoping
not just to protect, but to expand pre-existing protections for
abortion and other reproductive rights.

California’s ballot proposal asks for abortion protections to be
written into the state constitution, shielding rights from the whims
of changing governments, and also covers a right to contraception –
something pro-choice advocates are worried about since the fall of
Roe.

Considering the political makeup of California, where Democrats
outnumber Republicans three to one in the assembly and the senate,
most observers are expecting a win for abortion rights. A recent poll
showed a 71-18 margin
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those in favor of the amendment among registered voters in California.
Among them, 35% of Republicans backed the referendum, too.

Similar to California, Vermont’s measure looks to shore up
pre-existing abortion protections in the state’s constitution, with
its ballot proposal asking to add a line to the constitution: “That
an individual’s right to personal reproductive autonomy is central
to the liberty and dignity to determine one’s own life course and
shall not be denied or infringed unless justified by a compelling
state interest achieved by the least restrictive means.”

It, too, looks to be an easy win in a state so pro-choice even the
Republican governor supports the amendment
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But it is Michigan where the stakes feel highest this November. Its
political battle for abortion rights centers around a 1931 abortion
ban law that was written pre-Roe, and whether it can spring back into
action.

Three-quarters of a million Michiganders brought the ballot
initiative, hoping to persuade voters to make the old ban unviable by
enshrining protection for abortion in the state’s constitution.

Republicans, perceiving a threat, already tried to block the
referendum by claiming the signatures collected were incorrectly
spaced, a decision quickly dismissed by the state supreme court. The
anti-abortion lobby knows 64% of Michiganders in a recent poll
specifically said they support
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a constitutional protection for abortion through the ballot initiative
– and more general polling has also shown broad support for abortion
rights, with 55% of Michiganders
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it should be mostly legal versus 39% who believe it should be mostly
illegal, according to the same New York Times study.

That 16-point margin would “put Michigan in the company of states
like Illinois, Minnesota and California when it comes to abortion
rights”, Ziegler said.

Still, pro-choice campaigners are hesitant to view the Michigan ballot
as a clear win, especially with huge amounts of money pouring into the
campaign on both sides in a state that is deeply purple – tending to
elect Democrats to the Senate and the presidency but Republicans for
statewide office.

“[Abortion support] is not necessarily partisan or evident through
polls – and ultimately, without deep communication and education we
can’t pre-determine success or failure,” said Chris Melody Fields
Figueredo, executive director of the Ballot Initiative Strategy
Center.

“If Kansas showed us anything, it’s that we don’t know how
voters will go.”

_Poppy Noor is the Deputy Features editor for Guardian US.
Twitter @PoppyNoor [[link removed]]_

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* abortion
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* Reproductive rights
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* Kansas
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* ballot referendums
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