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WHAT OPEC+ PRODUCTION CUT WOULD MEAN: The OPEC+ alliance is weighing slashing its production by more than 1 million barrels per day as it seeks to prop up falling oil prices—threatening to deliver a major blow to the Biden administration, which has lobbied extensively for Saudi Arabia to up its output to help avert a major global energy crisis.

The cuts OPEC+ is considering would be the largest since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and threaten to drive prices higher and drive a wedge between members and President Joe Biden at a politically perilous time for his party in Congress.

The OPEC+ effort would seek to correct for market weakness following four straight months of falling oil prices. The group is slated to formally consider the production cuts at its meeting on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, one source familiar with the discussions told CNBC that Saudi Arabia is weighing another additional, voluntary production cut of its own.

Oil prices jumped more than $4 following news of the possible cuts – bad news for Biden: Biden’s approval ratings as president have been closely tied to gas prices. In June, when gas costs soared to a their highest-ever point of more than $5 a gallon, Biden’s approval rate subsequently plummeted to its lowest-ever point, bottoming out at just 31%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.

When pain at the pump alleviated, his approval ratings began trending up once again, climbing by 9 percentage points in the most recent Quinnipiac survey.

A number of analysts said Monday that Brent crude is headed back toward $100 a barrel in the next few months.

Strong majorities of voters also repeatedly ranked economic issues, including inflation and high gas prices, as the top issue facing U.S. voters, according to the monthly Quinnipiac surveys.

To that end, Biden and Democrats have sought to drive down high gas costs, or to shift blame on U.S. oil companies, or Russian President Vladimir Putin—as they seek to protect their narrow Senate and House majorities in the November midterms.

Lawmakers have dragged oil executives to the Hill multiple times this year, where they accused them of “price gouging” and artificially inflating costs for consumers.

In July, Biden made his first presidential visit to Saudi Arabia—whose kingdom he described on the campaign trail as a “pariah” for ordering the 2018 murder of U.S.-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi at its embassy in Istanbul—all in the name of increasing oil production.

Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner Energy and Environment Writers Jeremy Beaman (@jeremywbeaman) and Breanne Deppisch (@breanne_dep). Email [email protected] or [email protected] for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.

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GAZPROM: NORD STREAM PIPELINES NO LONGER LEAKING GAS AFTER BLASTS: Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom said today that its twin Nord Stream natural gas pipelines are no longer leaking gas into the Baltic Sea, one week after they were hit by three separate explosions leaders leaders have said were sabotage.

Gazprom said in a statement that gas from the three ruptured lines had stopped flowing. Though neither Nord Stream 1 or 2 had been operating at the time, they all contained pressurized natural gas—which primarily consists of methane.

Gazprom also suggested it might be able to restore supply via its single remaining Nord Stream line. But the prospect of Russia resuming its deliveries to Europe—supplies it had already dropped to zero just last month—remains highly unlikely.

If a decision were made to restart deliveries, Gazprom said, it could begin doing so via Nord Stream 2's “line B,” which was unaffected by the blasts.

It also said it had asked Siemens Energy, the German-based energy company tasked with carrying out much of the pipeline maintenance work, to make repairs. "Siemens is taking part in repair work in accordance with the current contract, is detecting malfunctions ... and is ready to fix the oil leaks,” Gazprom said. “Only there is nowhere to do the repair.”

… But Siemens denied Gazprom’s claim that it had been asked to repair the leaks: Siemens on Saturday said it had not been involved in any maintenance on the pipelines and had not gotten any service requests from Gazprom.

 … MEANWHILE, SWEDEN (LITERALLY) DEEPENS ITS INVESTIGATION: Sweden said today that it has sent a diving vessel to the site of the explosions, as it begins to investigate what—and who—was behind the three Nord Stream blasts. "The coast guard is responsible for the mission, but we are supporting them with units," a Swedish naval spokesperson, Jimmie Adamsson, told Reuters. "The only one we are naming is HMS Belos, which is a submarine rescue and diving vessel."

SEARCH AND RESCUE EFFORTS CONTINUE AFTER IAN’S DESTRUCTION: Search and rescue operations continue after Hurricane Ian ripped into Florida's coast last week.

At least 76 people have been confirmed dead from the storm, and officials warned that more deaths are likely to be reported in the days ahead as they continue to comb through the wreckage in some of the worst-hit areas.

Emergency responders have conducted at least 1,600 rescue operations so far, with National Guard helicopters traveling to some areas that remain inaccessible after the storm.

Biden is expected to visit the state Wednesday alongside First Lady Jill Biden.

Now, as Ian now moves through Virginia and up the East Coast, officials are getting a better idea of just how significant its damage might be: Ian is expected to be the most expensive storm in Florida’s history, with early estimates putting damages in the ballpark of $30 billion (on the conservative end) or as high as $63 billion.

Dangers persist in much of the state: More than 500,000 residents remain without power, and hundreds more without potable water. In Fort Myers and other coastal areas, bridges have been destroyed and roadways remain underwater, leaving many residents isolated and limited or no cell service. Others used kayaks to navigate heavily-flooded roads surrounding them.

Many uninsured: Just 18.5% of Florida’s nearly 10 million homes have flood insurance, according to data from the National Flood Insurance Program—which will make it incredibly financially challenging for some to rebuild.

Though FEMA does provide emergency response and disaster assistance, it typically does not cover the cost of rebuilding. “Ian could financially ruin thousands of families in Florida. There’s no better way to say it,” the Insurance Information Institute’s Mark Friedlander told Politico. People without flood insurance “could be devastated,” he said.

GOP PRESSES FOR 11 LEASE SALES IN OFFSHORE FINAL PROGRAM: Senate Republicans are asking Secretary Deb Haaland to finalize a five-year offshore leasing program with lease sales in it rather than select the “no sale” option provided in proposed program Interior published in July.

The 21 senators said the oil and gas industry needs certainty that new acreage will continue to be made available. New leasing would also lead to new production, lowering energy prices and inflation in the U.S. and for allies in Europe, where economies are being smothered by high energy costs, they said in a letter to Haaland.

The Biden administration has favored restrictions on new oil and gas leasing, having reduced acreage across the onshore lease sales it carried out this summer, and Interior is under significant pressure to do more. Environmental groups want Interior to completely cease offering new acreage offshore.

Interior’s proposed program contemplates an option for the five-year program that includes up to 11 sales: up to 10 sales in the Gulf of Mexico and one sale in Alaska’s Cook Inlet.

Whatever is finalized, Interior just received clear direction from Congress in the Inflation Reduction Act to revive the three lease sales (2 GOM sales and 1 in Cook Inlet) that were provided in the 2017-2022 program but canceled in May.

The Rundown

E&E News Like Manchin, Obama tried to fast-track transmission. Nope.

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Calendar

TUESDAY | OCTOBER 4

2:00 p.m. The American Association for the Advancement of Science holds a virtual discussion on "Advances in PFAS (Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances) Destruction." Learn more and register here.

THURSDAY | OCTOBER 6 

1:00 p.m. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission will convene virtually for its meeting of the Advisory Committee on Advanced Nuclear Reactor Safeguards, or ACRS.