BEST FOR BRITAIN'S
WEEKEND WIRE

Dear John 

It’s been a hectic week here in London, at the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool, and in financial markets across the world. Labour Conference saw a major victory in our campaign for electoral reform, but work remains to be done to right the ship as the Government founders.

Labour move toward electoral reform

One of the biggest developments from the Labour Conference came on Monday night, when a motion backing changes to the Westminster voting system, including the adoption of proportional representation, passed overwhelmingly in what Best for Britain CEO, Naomi Smith, called “the beginning of a seismic shift in UK politics”.

The passage of this motion points to an appetite for meaningful change to the electoral system among the Labour rank-and-file members as well as among some of the Party’s highest-profile boosters, including labour unions Unite and Unison. 

The unions’ change in stance from last year underscores the success of a years-long effort (including Best for Britain's #CantWait campaign) to link the extreme challenges facing millions of British people with the Conservative government and the system that has granted them a majority of seats with a minority of votes.

Push for PR, proximate phase 

Keir Starmer and other senior members of the party have either ruled out electoral reform or downplayed its significance in their plans. Accordingly, the next stage of the push for a fairer electoral system is convincing Labour leadership to listen to its members and backers and incorporate proportional representation into the manifesto for the next general election. 

On the other side, high-profile Labour politicians, among them Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and former shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, have come out in support of Best for Britain’s Can’t Wait Campaign and proportional representation, calling on leadership to respect the democratic outcome of the members’ vote.

The facts in favour of proportional representation are clear: It is supported by voters, including 61 percent of Labour voters and by a nearly 4 to 1 margin among all Red Wall voters. It is more democratic, ensuring smaller parties win seats proportional to the votes they receive. The UK’s first-past-the-post system puts it out of step with the rest of Europe; only Britain and Belarus use it for national elections. FPTP has never delivered a single-party government with majority support in the UK since it was adopted in 1950.

The onus now lies with Labour leadership to accept their members’ vote and commit to electoral reform once they return to government.

Fiscal freefall

The chaos set off by the Chancellor’s mini budget announcement last week continues to reverberate in markets throughout the world. The opening of markets at the beginning of the week saw the pound crash to a record low of $1.03 before the Bank of England announced an unprecedented rescue package. 

Kwasi Kwarteng has tried to project confidence in the unprecedented slate of tax cuts and borrowing even as UBS chief economist Paul Donovan said that the Conservative Party looked like a “doomsday cult” in the eyes of investors. In a strange encounter with reporters outside the Treasury on Monday, the Chancellor refused to comment on the pound’s cliff dive or on the market volatility caused by his mini-budget.

Even as the Chancellor was overheard asking, “Who cares if sterling crashes?”, he was forced to hold a series of emergency meetings with City financiers on Tuesday to discuss how to restore investor confidence and stent the bleeding.

No, it’s the economists who are wrong

The Government’s bullishness about the economic impact of their tax cuts and increased borrowing puts them at odds with the experts, who have variously christened the plan the “shortest economic suicide note in history”, a modern-day “dash for growth”, and a “hammer blow” for home buyers.

Kwarteng has agreed to spell out a medium-term fiscal plan alongside a long-delayed OBR forecast on 23rd November, leaving plenty of time for more market fluctuation and sterling depths to be plumbed. 

At least some people in the UK have made lemonade from the Chancellor’s lemon of a mini-budget: billionaire hedge fund operators, many of them with Tory ties, who earned handsome dividends shorting the pound over the weekend. Shadow economic secretary to the Treasury Tulip Siddiq has urged the Financial Conduct Authority to investigate.

Late Tuesday night, things went from bad to worse when the IMF, in an unprecedented step, admonished the Government for the plans set out in the mini-budget, branding them a wrong-headed giveaway to the richest earners and warning that they could heighten inequality and exacerbate the country’s economic woes. News of the IMF’s intervention sent the pound crashing ever further down.

Storming Starmer

In a rousing speech to the Labour conference on Tuesday afternoon, Keir Starmer laid out his Party’s framework for the structural changes planned under their governance. The near hour-long address covered a broad spectrum of issues, but in the wake of the speech, a few key points grabbed much of the attention.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the economic chaos unleashed by last week’s mini-budget took up the first few minutes of Starmer’s speech. In exorciating terms, Starmer asserted that the Tories could no longer claim to be the party of fiscal responsibility when their policies have wreaked havoc on the UK market. The leader took particular aim at the Chancellor’s tax cuts for the highest-income earners, charging that the Government has sacrificed economic stability solely for “tax cuts for the richest 1%”.

Ramping up investment in green energy also emerged as a key focal point for a Labour government. In one of his most consequential pledges, Starmer called for the creation of a publicly-owned ‘Great British Energy’ company that would massively upscale government spending on renewables. In his commitment, the Leader of the Opposition stressed the practical imperative for such a move, highlighting its growth potential, jobs creation, and importance for energy security.

Invoking his family connections to the NHS, Starmer then laid out a bold vision for rebuilding the health service. Echoing Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting, he announced plans to massively ramp up recruitment, including 10,000 nursing placements, over 7500 new medical student slots, and a twofold increase in district nurses.

Other highlights from Starmer’s speech included a redoubled commitment to aid Ukraine against the Russian invasion and a categorical ruling out of any electoral alliance with the SNP. He struck a balanced tone on Brexit by attacking the Tories’ Brexit-inspired deregulation blitz and pledged that Labour would make it work. The speech also notably quoted Tony Blair, calling Labour “the political wing of the British people”.

With the Government continuing to face blowback from their catastrophic mini-budget, Starmer’s speech earned rave reviews in the press, with the New Statesman opining that the Labour leader had spoken as a ‘Prime Minister in waiting’. However, others noted that Starmer’s challenge was made a lot easier by the Government’s rake-stepping, with The Independent likening the speech to ‘a penalty shootout against a team that have already gone home’.

Conference round-up

Beyond the Leader’s keynote speech, other shadow ministers gave well-received addresses detailing the problems caused by 12 years of Tory governance along with their plans to right them.

Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves offered the starkest contrast to her Conservative counterpart in her speech on Monday. She castigated the Government’s planned tax cuts and pledged to reverse them and use the dividends to fund an ambitious recruitment increase for the NHS.

Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper took the Government’s policing and migration strategies to task. In her speech, Cooper condemned the plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda and pledged instead to work closely with France to prevent deaths in Channel crossings. She also announced a plan to hire 13,000 new police officers and tighten rules regarding police treatment of children after reports of teenagers being strip-searched without due cause sparked public outcry. Shadow communities secretary Lisa Nandy offered a new mantra for Labour during a housing crisis: “Council housing, council housing, council housing”. 

Many pundits also noted the heightened level of business interest at the Labour Party Conference compared to years past. Corporate attendance rose to its highest level since 2010, while queues for receptions with influential firms and business leaders snaked far out the door. 

Senior Labour sources attributed this shift to the growing public appetite for a Labour Government: “They are genuinely encouraged to see a sensible, functioning opposition party.” City bankers previously close with the Tories echoed this recognition of the sea change in the political landscape, with one saying it was “time to listen to what Labour has to say”.

Labour surge, Conservatives collapse

Following the buoyant mood at Labour Conference and the economic woes caused by the Prime Minister’s fiscal agenda, polls this week have seen Labour race out to leads scarcely seen before.

On Thursday, after the Prime Minister embarked on a disastrous morning interview tour of regional BBC Radio affiliates, the slate of polls released later in the day were apocalyptic for the Tories. A Survation poll recorded its largest-ever lead for Labour at 21 points, 49%-28%. Mirror/Deltapoll reported similar numbers, showing Labour ahead by a margin of 48%-29%.

YouGov and The Times tallied the most shocking numbers of the day; their poll registered a stunning 54%-21% lead for Labour over the Conservatives. This 33-point lead, if replicated in a general election, would see Labour win a staggering 571 seats and the Conservatives just two, with the SNP replacing them as the next-largest party. 

The dismal polling numbers have heaped more pressure on the already-embattled Prime Minister, with one Tory MP dubbing the situation “extinction-level”. Calls for the Government to reverse their economic policies have begun growing ever-louder from discontented Conservative MPs, with Skipton and Ripon’s Julian Smith explicitly condemning the 45p tax cuts and challenging the PM to step in to stabilise the markets.

PM leaking confidence?

Just three weeks into her tenure, the Prime Minister faces reports of a growing rebellion within her own party. Multiple Tory MPs have already submitted letters of no confidence to the chair of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, in response to the pound crashing to its lowest-ever value against the dollar after last week’s mini-budget announcement.

Several Conservative backbenchers, particularly from the Party’s one-nation wing, have expressed serious reservations about the tax cuts announced by the Chancellor last week. Other warnings have come from figures like former Chancellor George Osborne, who called the Government’s borrowing policy “schizophrenic” and urged a new approach. 

Though Party rules technically prohibit another leadership race for at least the next 12 months, news of growing disquiet within her own party will not be welcome news for the Prime Minister. Discontent among Tory MPs has already gained traction with prominent pundits, including iNews columnist Ian Dunt, who Wednesday predicted that Truss’ tenure could be over by Christmas.

Spreading the misery

The Prime Minister is not the only senior figure under scrutiny. After the pound tumbled to record lows and the IMF issued a rare warning about the economic effects of the Chancellor’s proposed tax cuts, a number of Tory MPs have privately called for his dismissal. 

While the Conservatives have publicly kept a unified front in the wake of the leadership election, the market chaos since the mini-budget has left many in the Party squirming. One former cabinet minister grimly summarised the mood around the Chancellor’s job security: “I think he’s dead”.

Amid rumours of a growing faction of Tory turncoats, the Prime Minister and Chancellor reportedly butted heads at a meeting on addressing the economic fallout from the mini-budget. Though Downing Street denied reports of a row, other sources told of a heated disagreement between the two after the Prime Minister refused the Chancellor’s suggestion that the Treasury take some action to project confidence in the markets. 

We hope you’ve found more time to breathe than we have after a jam-packed week. With train strikes and economic ruin hanging over the upcoming Tory Party conference, it looks set to be a strange affair. Make sure you have your popcorn popped and schadenfreude waiting in the wings. Bye for now!

Best wishes,

Tommy Gillespie

Press Officer, Best for Britain

P.S. Please do support the campaign with either a one-off donation to the Better Democracy Fund, or by becoming a regular supporter. Your support will mean we can bring progressive parties together, fight undemocratic changes to our elections, and campaign for a change in our voting system to make all votes count.